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SBUWX23

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Everything posted by SBUWX23

  1. SBUWX23
    the Euro likely nudges back north a bit.
  2. SBUWX23
    See March storms, early April storms, and Nov 2018.
  3. SBUWX23
    Mid LI sounding is a beaut clark at 15z on new GFS
  4. SBUWX23
    Im pretty sure nws forecast accumulation that is not on road surfaces
  5. SBUWX23
    Usually northern parts do better but in this case it may be west vs east.
  6. SBUWX23
    Especially for us on LI. It's such a fickle situation for us but we are due.
  7. SBUWX23
    There is actually good agreement now on that evolution
  8. SBUWX23
    NWS doesn't make wholesale changes this far out with things like this. They have brief updates for the very near term but not for something over 24 hours out. It's not smart to flip around so much with every cycle.Big updates will follow in a few hours. Adjustments are made in quicker times as the event is happening
  9. SBUWX23
    I was even skeptical earlier today but seeing these trends and where the mid level low ends up Tuesday morning I'm more optimistic now. Models help guide us and now things look more reasonable to expect snow down to NYC and LI Tuesday.
  10. SBUWX23
    I think people are gonna like the 00z euro.
  11. SBUWX23
    Okx briefing highlights the areas of concern. Check slide 2. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/02112024pm_winterstorm.pdf
  12. SBUWX23
    Here we have some criticizing when forecasters flip flop and now NWS is remaining more consistent right now and some are upset and wondering why they didn't adjust. Surely if this trend continues amounts will be adjusted.
  13. SBUWX23
    High res RDPS
  14. SBUWX23
    Is that MJO?
  15. SBUWX23
    Hes sticking to his guns here and not relenting, but he needs to look lower down. there is a clear shift at 700 mb.
  16. SBUWX23
    Its a very complex system
  17. SBUWX23
    Its easy to sit here and arm chair forecast, but I do not think some realize the pressures of professional forecasting especially in a highly populated area. To say no one is right anymore is a bit harsh. We have so much data to look at and so many variables that have to be considered. Think about how many towns, cities, etc the local NWS offices in the NE have to deal with. They are not just putting forecasts out for the general public, its also for emergency managers who need to make informed decisions.
  18. SBUWX23
    The thing here is there may be real obs now with the southern vort and northern stream the models are initializing with that are leading to the changes. I am very interested in the 00z runs, but dont expect anything significant, it may not be till tomorrow morning.
  19. SBUWX23
    its further south, wouldnt say much weaker. its just south and not as broad.
  20. SBUWX23
    what is this? did a child draw that? there are better model sites out there then this.
  21. SBUWX23
    it could also bump north. these changes are noise. euro still has temps too high in the city area. yes i know dynamical cooling etc.
  22. SBUWX23
    dont think its snowing that far west at 21z. that is a 6 hour avg ptype.
  23. SBUWX23
    It looks cold enough for snow... Sneaky warm layers near the coast at 750-800 mb.
  24. SBUWX23
    its on the 10:1 snow maps so it must be real.
  25. SBUWX23
    not really, members look similar overall to previous runs. this is based on track and other fields, not 10:1 snow maps and mean snow map.
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