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SBUWX23

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Everything posted by SBUWX23

  1. SBUWX23
    Its a very complex system
  2. SBUWX23
    Its easy to sit here and arm chair forecast, but I do not think some realize the pressures of professional forecasting especially in a highly populated area. To say no one is right anymore is a bit harsh. We have so much data to look at and so many variables that have to be considered. Think about how many towns, cities, etc the local NWS offices in the NE have to deal with. They are not just putting forecasts out for the general public, its also for emergency managers who need to make informed decisions.
  3. SBUWX23
    The thing here is there may be real obs now with the southern vort and northern stream the models are initializing with that are leading to the changes. I am very interested in the 00z runs, but dont expect anything significant, it may not be till tomorrow morning.
  4. SBUWX23
    its further south, wouldnt say much weaker. its just south and not as broad.
  5. SBUWX23
    what is this? did a child draw that? there are better model sites out there then this.
  6. SBUWX23
    it could also bump north. these changes are noise. euro still has temps too high in the city area. yes i know dynamical cooling etc.
  7. SBUWX23
    dont think its snowing that far west at 21z. that is a 6 hour avg ptype.
  8. SBUWX23
    It looks cold enough for snow... Sneaky warm layers near the coast at 750-800 mb.
  9. SBUWX23
    its on the 10:1 snow maps so it must be real.
  10. SBUWX23
    not really, members look similar overall to previous runs. this is based on track and other fields, not 10:1 snow maps and mean snow map.
  11. SBUWX23
    weenies will be surprised at how it will struggle to snow when a 979mb low is 50 miles south of the coast.
  12. SBUWX23
    Snow may be a thing of the past for NYC and Long Island. Category 6 storms but no snow.
  13. SBUWX23
    Not sure what's going on there but the point click ranges seem broader then the maps do.
  14. SBUWX23
    Their deterministic forecast on the snow forecast map is only around 1.5 near you. The ranges in the point and click seem broader than the maps.
  15. SBUWX23
    it looks like its for the NW interior not all of NE NJ
  16. SBUWX23
    it is suppressed with everything.
  17. SBUWX23
    Edit nvm I see it above!
  18. SBUWX23
    What's the surface look like?
  19. SBUWX23
    It's better to put out the worst case forecast 3.5 days out?
  20. SBUWX23
    vertically stacked lows are decaying and do not produce the same dynamics. you want the mid level loves to pass to your south.
  21. SBUWX23
    all you need is a slight shift north and it is 95 percent rain for the coast. Also its not gonna stick with temps above freezing during daytime Tuesday. Chances are very slim at the coast. Get out, enjoy life.
  22. SBUWX23
    This is usually a red flag because this can be very thread the needle when your airmass is marginal at best. Dynamics can only do so much. Case in point a few weeks back when even the interior struggled to get any snow.
  23. SBUWX23
    CMC is not north and is not anywhere near the GFS aloft.
  24. SBUWX23
    The 13th
  25. SBUWX23
    The GFS continues to show less phasing and less favorable northern and southern stream spacing to lift the low further north like earlier runs. We should not be looking at snow clown maps now as they are just not good but rather what is going on aloft. Will see what the other guidance has, but the GFS may not be completely wrong with the scraper for us. Again i would not put stock in its ptype or snow amount at all. It has a cold bias
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