Radtechwxman

I think you're going to see a lot of shifts with this one especially up to the last second. But given with how north the northern stream energy is coming in, if there is a phase it would probably favor this where it is modeled now or more nw. But given how this winter has been anyone from ND to FL is in game *sarcasm of course*

That was unnecessary but ok. Wouldn't exactly call that a meltdown. I'm not that upset, just annoyed and venting. Guess I could have put it in the banter thread but was reading through the posts in this thread and just put it here. This definitely is an odd storm with a complicated evolution but someone is going to cash in with all this moisture and long duration

Punt. Next. Can't manage to get one winter storm warning criteria event this winter. So ready for severe wx. Over this nonsense

You guys do have some nice paralleling enhanced bands. Had one of those earlier that puked some nice flakes. Outside that been mostly pixie dust

How much snow you got now? Damn you got about as much as here!

At first looked like the deformation band was going to get a nice boost from arctic front and northern wave but now seems like the returns out west are really drying out. I got a few inches here probably. Will be lucky to squeeze out another inch

Yeah you're super lucky being close to that rain snow line. I'm jealous. Snow flake size here is pretty meh

Well tell that to nws who was forecasting rain/snow

Up by you no. But was possible down this way. Got into mid 30s before snow started. But rapidly cooled to 32

Snow actually started here rapidly on onset with no rain mixed in. I was shocked. Had nice flake size at first but have leveled off to pretty tiny flakes. Banding seems to be setting up further south closer to rain-snow line. Not liking that drying trend in northern MO but hopefully will fill back in as the arctic front and northern stream wave approaches. There is a deformation band back by KC that could pivot up this way though

Current forecast. 0-5in. Should verify

0z gfs mostly 2-4in across the board

Sure had that look. But totals definitely didn't reflect it

0z nam looked pretty on simulated reflectivity but the amounts are meh. Barely advisory worthy. Low ratios for a good portion of the event could definitely be an issue

18z gfs continues lowering snow trend. I think globals are struggling with evolution of the major players. After the WAA wing Wed, gfs really weakens the deformation band to basically nothing overnight and isn't showing much with arctic front. 18z nam on the other hand is more generous

Like with every storm this winter I'm grasping for straws. Probably another dud in the making. Man I miss real winter storms that keep trending well in the short range instead of giving you false hope a few days out then trending back downward

18z nam gives me some hope. Warms me to 35 by midday then starts the plunge. Keeps precip all snow. Obviously accumulations will be limited at first with marginal temps and very low ratios but should improve come Wed evening and overnight

18z hrrr is abysmal. But it also has its usual warm bias. Shows rain for a lot of areas into Wed evening

Yea it's evolution is definitely odd. I do believe heavier swath could lay somewhere between I70 and I72 but I'm also skeptical of that with marginal temps the more south you get

Man that was a terrible euro run. I'm not sure I buy it being that south, esp with other guidance like gfs and nam a lot more north. Funny because euro was the only model before that was the most north and phased and now it's probably the furthest south. Lets see if other models follow suit

DVN isn't impressed: The 12Z model suite has shown more phasing than past runs with the upcoming system. The QPF has shifted north, resulting in models producing typical advisory levels of snow over the CWA and the rest of northern IL. However, no model run has really indicated a closed mid level circulation in this phasing, thus the precipitation should be mainly driven by WAA and not be long lasting or heavy in the cold side of the system (not a persistent def zone). While I am on board with increasing pops to likely for this event, we may not have a cold boundary layer over our region, and that could greatly limit any snow accumulation until the Arctic front arrives Wednesday night, and once again, unless there`s reason to draw moisture back over the cold air, that process should shut down the widespread rain/snow. Snow showers may develop with low level lapse rates peaking in the gusty Arctic transition.

Guessing we would probably see better than 10:1 ratios Wed night with temperatures getting well below freezing

Seems like it's heavier axis is more south though

Models all over the place. 18z nam has one piece of energy miss me to the south mostly and another to the north. Lol classic. Euro seems to be the only one spinning up something more significant. It has been remarkably consistent though. The 12z cmc was pretty similar to euro though

GFS still saying a hard pass. Euro has been pretty consistent. Curious to see if it holds or caves