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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    Let’s flip the script here…if all the models were showing a miss/graze and the Euro was the only one showing a snowstorm, which would you go with? The rest of the models won when this scenario happened with Juno in 2015.
  2. LVblizzard
    Not as disgustingly bad as the OP run. But still. Not what you want to see.
  3. LVblizzard
    In case anyone is wondering about a situation in which the Euro failed spectacularly in the short range. This is from 2 years ago.
  4. LVblizzard
    Look no further than a week ago. GFS had 6 inches, RGEM had nothing. End result was somewhere in the middle.
  5. LVblizzard
    Euro is Boxing Day all over again for the Lehigh Valley. Forecast was up to a foot, we only got 2 inches. It’s the first storm that comes to mind when I think of bad busts. I’m too young to remember 2001.
  6. LVblizzard
    Euro is an absolute disaster. Just 2-4” except by the shore. It has a screw zone of just an inch directly over Allentown. No bueno.
  7. LVblizzard
    Fog is pretty crazy in some spots tonight. I can barely see 1/10 mile at times.
  8. LVblizzard
    1-2 feet throughout the area this run with lollies to 30”. Just insane!
  9. LVblizzard
    That backside vort keeps getting closer to phasing into this thing. If that happens this turns into a BECS.
  10. LVblizzard
    It might on Sunday afternoon with marginal temps. But once the heavy banding arrives Sunday night it’s game on.
  11. LVblizzard
    So did the RRFS.
  12. LVblizzard
    Finally got a break from tonight’s DoorDash shift to look at the models. What in the actual f**k is going on??? How has this gone from a high end advisory event to a HECS in 24 hours?
  13. LVblizzard
    18z Euro continued its west trend. It’s not like the GFS but it gets warning criteria snow back to Philly and the burbs.
  14. LVblizzard
    I went fairly conservative with my first call on my page. I have 4-8" for the Lehigh Valley for now but confidence is pretty low. This has too many similarities to Boxing Day for my liking and that was a huge bust here. It'll be harder for this one to badly bust like that, but at this point I do think most heavy banding stays fairly close to I-95.
  15. LVblizzard
    Are y’all ready to get NAMed? 18z looks like it’ll make an attempt at it.
  16. LVblizzard
    March 2001 shifted like 200 miles north at the last minute. No chance of that happening this time around. A miss to the east is the bust scenario in this case.
  17. LVblizzard
    A little bit. But who cares because 1. it's not a huge shift at all, and 2. it's the SREFs.
  18. LVblizzard
    Surface doesn’t quite do it. But it’s very close. One more shift and it’s basically the GFS.
  19. LVblizzard
    I’m not looking forward to making a first call on my page later today. GFS has over a foot, CMC/UKMET have just a couple inches, and who knows what the Euro will show. At this point I’m confident heavy snow makes it to the Delaware River…but how far will it get into PA?
  20. LVblizzard
    The initial wave isn’t from the IVT, it’s from the interaction of the northern and southern streams. The IVT only comes into play once the low starts to head well east. It actually mostly misses us on this run and slams York/Lancaster.
  21. LVblizzard
    Euro holds. Light to moderate event for all of us. We still have a window for a west trend and a big storm but if we don’t see it by 0z tomorrow night, it probably won’t happen.
  22. LVblizzard
    Euro looks like a hold to me pending the precip maps. It probably won’t be as good north of NYC but south of there it’s similar to 18z.
  23. LVblizzard
    I already don't trust the GFS. But if it fails with this storm again the government should just permanently retire it.
  24. LVblizzard
    Looks like a…ahhhhh never mind.
  25. LVblizzard
    Big positive trend on the 18z NAM and RRFS. Just another subtle step in the right direction at 0z and this suddenly starts to look very interesting.
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