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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    Latest RAP and HRRR back off quite a bit. I’m getting tired…
  2. LVblizzard
    Still snowing for Philly eastward.
  3. LVblizzard
    For SE PA, yes, but the precip cutoff is well north. State College, Williamsport, and Scranton are close to heavy snow again. Not that it matters for this subforum but it’s a clear sign that the south trend has stopped for good.
  4. LVblizzard
    HRRR starting to come back north a little. Current radar supports that.
  5. LVblizzard
    Here’s the complete run. Still snowing everywhere but the Lehigh Valley at this hour.
  6. LVblizzard
    RAP continues to bullseye this entire subforum.
  7. LVblizzard
    100% agree. Short-range meso models have been steady in their past few runs. And current radar matches up with the models’ sim radar pretty well.
  8. LVblizzard
    The HRRR has held steady in its past few runs instead of continuing to trend south. Latest run has 6-9” for most of us with snow still falling everywhere.
  9. LVblizzard
    I can’t even imagine how the forecasters in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre down to the northern Poconos are feeling right now. This was all but a lock for a major snowstorm for them. And it all fell apart just like that. Fortunately it doesn’t look like there’s enough time for this to bust badly in the Lehigh Valley. Worst case, we get like 4” of moderate snow overnight.
  10. LVblizzard
    Meanwhile the 3km becomes good friends with the UKMET.
  11. LVblizzard
    18z NAM continues the south trend and it is a total crush job. Looks like the HRRR.
  12. LVblizzard
    Was March 7-8 the storm that knocked out power to much of eastern PA? I remember that clearly, I was in the Poconos for it and the forecast was 1-3”, instead we got over 6” with blizzard conditions at times.
  13. LVblizzard
    Be thankful if this keeps going south. If I get shafted it means you get hammered!
  14. LVblizzard
    If the NAM comes as far south as the RAP then it’s time to start worrying a little. This thing isn’t gonna miss us like it might in Scranton, but another sizable shift south leaves us with 2-4” or 3-6” instead of 6-10”+.
  15. LVblizzard
    Zoomed in HRRR. I think the entire subforum would be happy with this!
  16. LVblizzard
    HRRR still wallops the LV/Poconos early tomorrow morning. It has 3” of snow at ABE by the time the Euro just begins to change over to snow.
  17. LVblizzard
    Unless the mesos go way SE I’m not putting any stock in the Euro at all. Under 24 hours it’s typically better to look at mesos than globals.
  18. LVblizzard
    15z RAP throws Philly weenies a bone…
  19. LVblizzard
    Figured I’d make a thread since we’re close enough to the storm that we’re immune to the bad fortune a dedicated thread brings. Hopefully. As it stands now, this looks like a significant storm for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos with plowable snow north of the turnpike, and a nuisance event towards the immediate Philly area. Should be a fun one!
  20. LVblizzard
    I’m noticing that some of the hi-res/meso models now only have rain for a very short period of time towards I-78, with the majority of precip being snow. Some of them change the Lehigh Valley to snow as early as 2-3 am.
  21. LVblizzard
    I’m not a morning person at all but it looks like I’ll be setting an alarm for 5-6 am tomorrow to watch this all unfold. I’m in the jackpot zone on pretty much every model minus the Euro. Should be a fun one. Maybe with some thundersnow too?
  22. LVblizzard
    Both NAMs park the death band over the Lehigh Valley tomorrow morning. 2-3”/hr rates at the height of it.
  23. LVblizzard
    You’re increasing totals? I think I’ll go up to 4-8” if/when I do…low ratios and BL issues scare me. Only way we get to 10” is if we have an earlier changeover and get under that death band for 3+ hours.
  24. LVblizzard
    Bobby from EPAWA saw the 0z guidance and essentially tossed his map from earlier this evening. No one really expected this shift, hobbyists and mets alike.
  25. LVblizzard
    The “long range” HRRR past 24 hours typically isn’t very good. Until I see a clear trend from every other model towards this solution (which I don’t think will happen) I’m sticking with 3-6” for our area.
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