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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    The HRRR and some of the other hi-res 12z models think the NAM is completely out to lunch, they’re holding to their colder solutions. Gonna be interesting to see how this plays out this evening.
  2. LVblizzard
    Ah good catch. That’s definitely more reasonable.
  3. LVblizzard
    I’ll permanently delete my account if Doylestown hits 16”
  4. LVblizzard
    Here’s my guess for accumulations: Philly: 3-6” Trenton: 4-8” Lancaster: 8-14” Doylestown: 6-10” Harrisburg: 12-18” Allentown: 8-14”
  5. LVblizzard
    Euro sucks except if you’re in the Poconos.
  6. LVblizzard
    The Stella flashbacks are real here. At least the trend is happening 36 hours prior rather than 24 so forecasters have time to change their forecasts.
  7. LVblizzard
    Sleet is even getting up to the Lehigh Valley on most models now. Ugh. I’m going with 6-10” from the front end thump here, then some sleet, then 2-4” more from the CCB. 8-14” sounds good but it’s disappointing when just 12 hours ago the consensus was for 1 1/2 feet with no mixing.
  8. LVblizzard
    RGEM nukes the Lehigh Valley into oblivion
  9. LVblizzard
    That high to the north is critical. Even though the shortwave was more amped this run, the isobars from the high sagged to the south more which led to a colder solution.
  10. LVblizzard
    That zone between I-78, I-80, and I-81 is the place to be for this one. Coal country is gonna get hammered.
  11. LVblizzard
    Just changed over an hour ago. Coating on the ground. Expecting an inch or two before it ends.
  12. LVblizzard
    I hate to say it but the GFS is out to lunch. It weakens the energy for no apparent reason which leads to a more strung-out and progressive solution. At the same time, I also think the NAM is too amped. I’m liking a CMC/Euro type solution right now.
  13. LVblizzard
    The GFS is nice but I’m suspicious with how weak it looks at 500mb. I think it’s up to its old tricks and moving the storm east off the coast too quickly.
  14. LVblizzard
    Don't sleep on Monday. It's looking like there will be a stripe of some pretty solid amounts somewhere between I-80 and the M-D line.
  15. LVblizzard
    This definitely looks like one to get excited about. A lot would have to go wrong for SE PA to get nothing out of this.
  16. LVblizzard
    Pretty strong winds here in Bath, PA as the rain gets lighter. I’d say sustained at about 20 mph with gusts to 40-45.
  17. LVblizzard
    Did KDIX radar stop working?
  18. LVblizzard
    Drove to work from Allentown to Bath. 20-25 minute commute took about 30. No flash flooding...yet. I imagine there will be in the next hour or two.
  19. LVblizzard
    Moderate-heavy rain in Allentown. Starting to get a little breezy as well. Death bands right on our doorstep according to radar.
  20. LVblizzard
    Short range models are very interesting for the Lehigh Valley. Looks like we could see actual tropical storm force winds (not gusts) for a short time tomorrow. Which makes sense given that Isaias made landfall stronger than expected. Hoping the power stays on at home and work.
  21. LVblizzard
    Sleet is now mixing with freezing drizzle.
  22. LVblizzard
    Back to all snow here in Bath. Wonder if it’ll stay that way for the rest of the storm. Some models showed a brief period of sleet but changed us back to snow.
  23. LVblizzard
    Snow/sleet mix at my work in Bath, about 5 miles north of Bethlehem. We have just shy of 3 inches on the ground.
  24. LVblizzard
    NAM is a major outlier. No model is even close to being that dry. I’m thinking 3-5” for the ABE area, pretty much in line with the NWS.
  25. LVblizzard
    I’m struggling to understand how much of eastern PA gets 6-12” on all these models. The low passes through upstate NY and the high is in an okay position, but not great. What am I missing here?
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