LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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I’ll take the under for the island. However I could see this being the real deal form the city west. Also, somewhere north of the lie could get one of those stationary dumpers. I hope this event breaks the trend however.
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Exactly. There needs to be organized lift. I think we all get some rain tomorrow with the obvious flooding threat being inland.
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It was a beautiful beach day at Jones beach. Water is incredibly warm and turquoise, I would have to think surface water nearing 80. It’s also super dry here, we really need something to survive to the coast tomorrow
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Haha, has been a while since we talked about anything other than storms dying before they hit the coast
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Only a matter of time until that happens. We need major upgrades to our power System asap. We need to learn from Florida, and even more so the west pack. A cat one in Taiwan is a windy rainy day, throw in Bermuda too. Any power infrastructure above ground is using concrete reinforced poles
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Exactly, we have seen repeatedly the heat domes move to our north the last few summers. If you had to pin down what our future summer climate entails I would think lots of 90s with high dews and increased coastal convection once ocean water is near 80. The biggest threat we are facing is the loss of our hurricane buffer. Water temps in the high 60s low 70s used to protect us from major Hurricanes. A great example is 38 which was able to maintain major status because it was moving at 60mph. We are losing that category reducing buffer. And a major with wind gusts over 120mph will destroy our power grid. Think PR after Maria. No power for months.
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100 is going to be hard with the high dews. Just like it rarely hits 100+ in Florida but 95/80/110 is common. New normal
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Some serious training storms to our west. Simone’s getting flash flooding
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Surprised to hear that. Being that I’m a horticulturalist in Manhattan, I’ll take a hard pass. Even though I love records, that’s going to a be brutal one. 110+ with who’s knows what heat index. Imagine the subways after that.
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Amazing. That’s exactly where I want to be. I have been doing a winter rental with friends in the general Stratton area for years. I absolutely love it there, and would like to experience more than just winter. I have witnessed some blockbuster storms there over the years. My favorite stretch was March 18. 3 storms back to back 18”, 36” and 20”. That’s a snow pack -
Not surprising. It’s only a matter of time before we get one of those extreme heat domes and crush all kinds of records. If the pac nw and Europe can do it, so can we.
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El Nino 2023-2024
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think we will see a large number of sheared out tropical storms. MDR production should be above normal corresponding to warm water temps. Anything that finds a hole in the shear could go nuclear however. -
Oceans closed to swimming yet again at Jones beach due to distant lighting from that central Jersey storm. Second time today yet it hasn’t rained for more than a couple minutes of drizzle. Super annoying for someone like myself who understands local meteorology. It’s not going to rain let alone have lighting at the beach today. The powers that be who are going by forecasts are convinced theses thunderstorms are coming.
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Officially 7 drops of rain at Jones beach. We had clear thousands of people off the beach for an incoming thunderstorm (the states call) I would barely call it partly cloudy with a few drops. Blue sky to the south and east the entire time
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Gorgeous day at Jones beach full sunshine. Big differences between north and south shore.
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Gorgeous beach day at Jones beach currently, full sunshine. I highly doubt any rain makes it this far south.
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It’s pretty spectacular how pronounced this pattern has been. The current radar shows it perfectly. Flooding issues pretty much surrounding the metro, but absolutely nothing survives. I’m not sure if this is a recent thing, or this has been going on forever and we are only just noticing (in my cases because I constantly check the radars from my phone) I think it’s a little bit of both. I remember plenty of good summer storms on the island that were the result of MCS systems that did make it all the way to the beaches.
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Pretty much. However the water temps have gone up significantly in the last week. That generally helps with convection. Sometimes you will see cells fire once they get 150 miles or so offshore and hit the Gulf Stream.
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It’s really the humidity. We haven’t had any sustained heat. The beach is empty once again despite the morning being full sunshine. Not a drop of rain fell here yesterday after the predawn showers.
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Exactly. We had more right on the south shore of the island (the traditional summer drought capital) this morning with the warm front. I’m hoping the next line at least holds. I am responsible for an important campus and it’s watering needs on this me uws. I’m on vacation till Wednesday. Unfortunately my coworkers think it’s been raining a ton due to forecasts. Normal people due to stalk radar. But that’s why my gardens are the best of the best.
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Uws has had maybe a few tenths today. Brooklyn/ northern queens got that discrete cell that just dumped and dumped. Let’s see what survives before we call it…
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Very localized storms, of course missing the two areas I need it to rain. Uws mainly. I was just thinking about all the rain forecast for area beaches and its effects on crowds. This is the slowest start to the summer I have seen in 25 years life guarding at Jones beach and it basically hasn’t rained at all here. Currently sunny, with hardly anyone on the beach. Black clouds on the mainland.
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New Jersey south of the city, you bet it will. Luckily we got some convection on the island this morning. The city has been striking out repeatedly though.
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Flowers in bloom till January….
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Just had really good downpour on the south shore, it’s about time. Somehow all the precip managed to miss Manhattan though, the strike out streak continues there
