LongBeachSurfFreak

Sea breeze looks minimal tomorrow. Should allow the coast to rain. Sorry liberty, weeds, mosquitoes and allergies are coming.

I’m trying to move on. But it annoys the crap out of me when tv Mets report the high temp for the region using the park.

It’s an every dog has its day strategy. Just simply using climatology you are likely to be right. When you’re right you pump it out to social media. When you are wrong, deny, block and move on.

I’m sorry but this is crap. No one can predict landfall locations more then a week out better then climatology. Even with AI.

Absolutely. Growing up in south wantagh it was always “it never rains in the summer”. So it’s certainly not a new phenomenon. If you look at the prominent historical tree species you can see the micro climate. The south shore had plains and pitch pine and oak forest. While the north shore had a fully developed climax deciduous forest. Some of that is soil related but precip patterns also played a role. Water temps have skyrocketed to the mid 70s and that’s when the island as a whole tends to score its biggest precip events. Maybe tomorrow produces.

Yeah I was in the screw zone in between heavier rains north and south. I’ll elaborate as to why I care so much. It’s more then just about my vegetable garden. I’m am a land scape designer and the majority of my work is on the south shore. I did several large installations this spring. One was the entire front of the house I rent in. My landlord hasn’t completed hooking up the irrigation system and promised to hand water if it got dry. While he has watered occasionally the garden looks like shit. Hydrangeas are burned. It would be a simple fix if culturally we accepted native plant gardens. As they are adapted to big swings in precip. But when people want that “wow factor” I have no choice but to use temperamental plants.

About the same here. Didn’t even make it through the trees. Grass is browning. The south shore summer flash drought is a real thing. People who do not live here just do not get it. It’s a micro climate seasonal desert.

If the NE bowing segment over central Jersey maintains we could eek out a thunderstorm southern metro. Has just enough of an ENE component. Looks similar though slightly weaker then the one on 6/19

Exactly. Writing was on the wall. Other then the areas north of the sea breeze front that saw some heavier rain this is going to be a pretty big fail for the rest of us. May even go completely dry in spots.

I’m going to laugh when this broken line of showers comes through and drops .01” on the south shore. I mean, I’m not a degreed met but I could easily forecast the lack of rain based solely off watching the weather here for 20 plus years. Just cancel the flood watch.

Storm forming on the sea breeze front right now near the LIE. You can see the anvil starting to go up from here in lynbrook. South of the front nothing will happen if anything until after 5.

I would have a second Manhattan project but for fusion. Problem solved.

Yup. Sunny all day at jones beach. Sea breeze is currently about 20 knots.

Yeah I agree with all that, climate change most certainly makes these flood disasters more likely. I’m referring more to defunding research and cloud seeding is prohibitively expensive. So there is no way it’s happening on a large scale. It was tried with hurricanes in the 50/60s with silver iodide with limited results.

That’s complete and utter bullshit. I love how there is zero explanation of how it is accomplished. Just implied that the government is aiming to effect the weather. The reality is the complete opposite. But I’m not going to go there as it touches on politics.

Allot of would depend on just how high of a rooftop. I would love to see obs from the top of the Nordstrom tower at 1550’. (Highest flat roof in nyc) Probably averages double the snowfall of the park. Not only a few degrees cooler due to height but also high enough to be out of the heat island near the ground.

That’s actually super ideal for fireworks. The lower dews mean less smoke clogging up the sky.

Rare day where severe is less likely in central Jersey severe ally then north and east of the city.

That’s a pretty good sounding for around here. Someone is going to pull off damaging winds. I like the setups where storms come down from CT for the island. Some of the best wind events historically have been in that setup.

Currently light rain with thunder at jones beach. We just cleared the beach.

Continuous lightning right now with the cell skirting the south shore. Haven’t seen lightning this prolific in a while. Only managing light rain in lynbrook.

Marine stability, no focusing mechanism for convention. Need lift, like a strong seabreeze front or warm/cold front. Tomorrow we should at least see some precipitation.

Absolutely zero surprise there.

Likely scattered convection, likely the usual suspects the big winners. Coastal central Jersey being the perpetual jackpot.

This image really puts things in perspective of how small this tropical storm is in comparison with the Epac system. Atlantic really struggling to produce anything meaningful while adding named storms.