LongBeachSurfFreak

Imelda is going to be a mean bitch. Carribean cruiser, cat 5.

Yeah it’s fuels both hurricanes and the temperature differences that power nor’easters. Without the Gulf Stream the weather in the northeast would be much more mundane.

Up here on Long Island Erin took the water temps from the high 70s to the high 60s temps recovered to the low 70s which is about normal for this time of year. Hurricanes in the north east derive their energy from the Gulf Stream and will weaken once above the north wall. It’s a function of the long shallow continental shelf.

There’s no way 190 ace is happening with a lull right during peak season. A strong backend is still likely based on increased vertical instability but it’s going to be hard to make up for lost time. Erin also cooled a large portion of the typical recurve track which will limit future storm intensity in that region.

Yeah, went from foggy and zero wind at 6am to blasting north wind (gusts 60+) by noon under deep blue skies. One of the more incredible weather days we have seen in our life times. I remember walking up the beach into sand blasting gusts and having to hold on to my board for dear life.

Felix 1995

It was gustav September 11th 2002. I remember it so well because it produced the most epic barrels on Long Island I have ever seen. Until the winds went nuclear North at 50mph and blew the swell down.

Heading into peak with above normal water temps in all but the far east MDR anything is possible.

Yeah that will rearrange some beaches, even without a landfall. I wonder if the models are keying in on some baroclinic fourcing. Wind field really expands so that would be the only way to maintain such ridiculously low pressures. (Obviously over modeled) Anything sub 940 north of 30 would be unprecedented in the modern era.

That’s a great story. I always wondered if fishers island was surfable. Takes a serious swell to make it through block island sound. On the hurricane teddy swell a few years ago I could hear the boulders moving under the waves in Montauk. A very cool clunking sound. Surfed some 15’ waves at ditch plains that day.

This is a be careful what you wish for scenario. During the hurricane Bill swell in 09 almost every break on Long Island was washed out. As in, the waves were so big they started breaking so far out they just rolled through the break. Thursday looks to do just that. We do not have the bottom for 15’ at 17 seconds. There are a couple select spots in RI (Ruggles) and Montauk (Turtles) that can, but you better be on a gun and damn near a pro. For mortals Wednesday and Friday look to be the days.

Cat 4 does a cyclonic loop right between the outer banks and Bermuda. Multiple days of 20 foot surf and sunny skies. If we are going to dream we are going to dream big and take out a couple houses on dune road.

What’s over Chad right now does have down stream implications. If the Sahel were experiencing a drought it would likely lead to a below normal season. Since that’s not the case watching waves in their embriotic state offers a glimpse of activity down the road. Anything more then that, as in locking in 360 hours global runs is pure speculation.

This is 100% common sense to anyone who has been following the tropics the last 20 years. The globals after 120 hours should only be used as a tool to see where development potential exists. The first few waves will likely be sacrificial in moistening the MDR. As we head into late August it’s looking more likely we see at least a few long track MDR storms. They often recurve. Like you mentioned the real threat may come from last minute home grown development.

Let’s see how the next two waves preform. If they develop and help moisten the mdr its game time. Until then it’s follow the vertical instability to the subtropics.

No storm has ever survived that far north of the Hawaiian islands.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if someone has a flash flood emergency. Meanwhile it’s the hottest day of the season at the beach. We have had 2 heat stroke incidents with people unconscious.

Saw two sharks fully breach out of the water into the air yesterday within 200 yards of the beach. Had to ban swimming for a while. Bunker pods are active but still much smaller then a few years ago. Water temps should approach 80 today and tomorrow with light winds and excellent solar heating. That means hot right to the beaches with little sea breeze relief.

I Live in you’re town. Do you drive around? During the last big rain event you referenced JFK getting 2”. There was a very sharp cutoff at the queens border. We received around an inch total. Since then nearly every convective event has missed. We are sitting in the 1.5” range for the last 30 days. That is in no way sufficient for peak solar insulation. This is a reoccurring theme the last few years. As we seem to rely on convection almost exclusively for summer rain. Our ecosystem developed with more spread out synoptic stratoform rains. Not just convection. The opinion posts are tiring and a big part of why myself and others post allot less here. I get it you love heat and hate rain in the summer. Move to fuking phoenix and be in you’re glory.

I fixed it for you. Speak for you’re location. This area contains many micro climates. Parts of the east end of the island received .05” during the big New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley flood event. It’s like claiming a region was hit by a hurricane because of a micro burst. Something that is still open to interpretation with colonial weather observations.

Euro AI relies on pattern analogs. Which Jb loves so I’m not at all surprised he has an affinity for it. To me, it looks dead until the 3rd week of August. Shear and dry air are still lurking.

Going to need something tropical/sub tropical for that. And it looks dead until at least late August.

Yeah it’s getting dry. Burned lawns and wilting plants. Pretty par for the course for summer near the coast. Last year was exceptional and second only to the summer 95 Hamptons fire summer drought. Tomorrow looks good for .5-1” for anyone that gets under good convection.

What the water temps are within 25 miles of the coast has little impact on any tropical activity up here. Because we have some of the longest and shallowest continental shelf in the world. Super shallow water has little to no OHC. That’s why it’s left off OHC maps. What we need to focus on is the water temps from 50 to 300 miles off the coast. And those waters are less effected by localized upwelling events. Those waters are currently near record warm. Here’s the Delaware bay buoy

Makes sense as the instruments are on the east side of the park so the wind was blowing off the densely urban UES.