Sw Nassau just got rocked by a pulse cell. Small hail and extremly heavy rain, very brief 50+ mph gusts. Literally appeared on radar after passing jfk. That was an amazing surprise .
I mean it’s a pretty easy forecast. This is a close the blinds winter for snow lovers. Not every super times a big storm with cold like 82/83 and 15/16. Without that it’s warm pac air with a few modified continental polar cool shots. .
There were allot of coastal storms and resulting erosion that winter. I was working on a research project tracking erosion at the time. Snow wise in the north east it was a lack of cold air that produced the negative result not the storm track. .
I would basically completely write off the mdr this season. Maybe something like 72 with potential for stronger systems closer the CONUS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File%3A1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png .