Cyclone-68

Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast through mid afternoon as the airmass continues to destabilize. Midday surface analysis indicates temperatures are warming into the 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As the cold front advances east into this uncapped airmass, scattered thunderstorms should develop. Shear of 30 to 35 knots and relatively long/straight hodographs will support the potential for supercells. Weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for large hail, but the overall favorable shear with strong venting aloft and potential supercells may support some isolated large hail. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, both from initial cells and also from any clusters which develop. Any stronger clusters with bowing segments could support a better organized damaging wind swath. The greatest wind damage threat will likely exist from western Massachusetts to far southern Maine.

Latest two day still has SNE under the gun from whatever results tomorrow

I need something tropical to track…Even if it landfalls in Canada for the 10th year in a row

Gotta say it’s been many a year since I’ve seen water like this…Its what makes this hobby so damn interesting

Well this is disconcerting: By Tuesday, ensemble guidance suggests increasing heat, with a 4050% chance of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees across southern New England on both Tuesday and Wednesday. While there is no clear signal for widespread precipitation during the middle of next week, the typical slight chance for a diurnal thunderstorm remains possible

Definitely..We were good for one or two episodes like last night every summer

It sure has been a while…I was ready again to chock this up to my 195th consecutive miss 10 miles to the south

Holy crap. Two VERY close lightning strikes near me

Lots of lightning and thunder here..Nearly constant to the SW

The Cape will probably get their 3rd tornado in four years at the rate it’s going

Kent…Birthplace of Seth MacFarlane..Don’t know why I remember that

I’m taking one in the Mediterranean in October and hoping for the same

Missing the core about 10 miles southeast just like last year. Since it’s the only thunderstorm in the state currently I shouldn’t complain I suppose

I remember Dick Albert used that word to death (thundershower)..It used to aggravate me for some reason

Watch coming for the north country shortly

Total screw job here but I kinda suspected that was the case when it was taking the storm even longer than usual to get into E MA. My internal antenna told me the storm is weakening..Not whining just stating what eventually happened

I’d be content with sub severe. Just get me a damn storm lol

“The July 1st Outbreak” has a good tone to it

“Hurricane hottest” would also work

Hopefully Sweeney and Neely won’t be around for the next one

It’s too bad extreme heat doesn’t come with thunder or something..It would make things a bit more interesting at least for me

Man…Why does NYC seem to cash in on this stuff every year? They must get 3x as many storms as the cities to the north do.

This is the part that got me salivating: Some model solutions however are showing some re- development along residual boundaries/outflow from the MCS from earlier in the day; not sure how realistic that may end up being and though I think dry weather wins out, any storm that can break the cap would have an environment more typical of central Plains instability rarely seen in New England: as much as 4500 J/kg of CAPE, steep lapse rates of 8 C/km albeit with weak shear.

Just noticed 102 outlooked in point and click. Never saw an actual forecast for my area that high

Oh I know.. Keep expectations low and hope for a surprise..A metaphor for life in general I suppose