jayyy

Wonder if that’s sleet.

I know some folks like to rely on models like the HRRR & RAP mid storm, which can be useful for a point of reference no doubt, but I tend to watch pressure maps and the radar like a hawk during storms. Nowcasting is the most reliable tool during game time for me. Even when things unfold as expected, it’s exciting to watch.

Lovely. Map?

Yeah man, I think my area over to yours is in for a nasty evening of ice. Zero doubt our mid levels get rekt, but the surface? Hard time seeing us climbing above freezing

I think that’s exactly what models have been showing. The low getting somewhere near the coast and then being pulled due NW after being captured by that NS feature. If only the low could beat the NS feature to the punch and continue ENE. We’d be so money.

100%. Have a big feeling places W of DC (longitude wise) may ice worse than we originally anticipated. Cold air is hanging in tough.

Imagine we could get that energy to transfer off the coast - as Pann alluded to earlier. Less than a 1% chance of that happening but man, imagine a bust in our favor mid storm? That’d be epic. Anyway… very much enjoying what’s occurring out there right now. Give me the 4-7” in my WSW and I’ll be happy as a clam (no RR, not that kind )

Have a feeling that my area on west may be in for a nasty icing later on. The cold is having a really tough time getting eroded out, even places SW of here. Thinking we have until at least 7-8pm for snow and then we go icy. Doubt we see much rain up this way

With another 2 potentials on its heels by next weekend. Amazing pattern for our area

Thump of snow coming for the Columbia area based on radar Great start up in Union bridge so far. Temp down 2.5 degrees since we started.

So odd to see snow sticking to roads before the grass. Not often we see that around here. Lovely out there. Feels like a major snowstorm is coming — damn you inland track. Although, if my WSW for 4-7” verifies, I’ll be MORE than happy

WSW upped from 2-4” then ice to 4-7” then ice for my location. Let’s see

Hey! Another UB member! Howdy neighbor.

I’d much rather see a storm slide south of us 5/6 days out on the models than be in the bullseye. We’ve seen this song and dance too many times before.

18F / 5 @ mi casa Models are definitely busting high on surface temps at this juncture, but unless the h5 and surface lows magically shift hundreds of miles east, the general area will meet the same fate as we’ve been expecting for a few days now. Guess there’s a shot at a few extra hours of wintry weather, but we’ve seen this setup before (low driving over or west of us) — we always comment on temps being lower than expected leading up to it, and the mid levels get torched all the same. If my house gets 3-4” of snow into a sleet fest and/or dryslot, I’d consider that a win in this setup. He is absolutely wishcasting

So long as we don’t make a thread for it 4+ days out We had a feeling the second storm could be the “one” as it would be forming with the pattern fully settled in. The threat is real, let’s see if she materializes.

From my experience living up in that area, it’s One of the worst places off Lake Erie for both synoptic and lake effect snow.

Nope. Any news

If this storm somehow defies every single model and goes east, this will be dubbed the WinterWxLuvr storm no doubt 18/1 — 1029 mbar — Union bridge WSW up for 2-4” before ice. Right along the lines of what I’m expecting but hoping for more

It’s alright guys, at 18z DT will release a new snow map, claiming the models will pick up on the effects of the volcanic eruption flaring tsunami advisories along the west coast, shifting our storm hundreds of miles east downstream. Stay focused. **sarcasm**

Imagine it comes in 150-200 miles SE of last run and we get rocked. #PlotTwist

Come oooon 00z, don’t do us dirty

NAVGAP still offshore?

I know NAM gets trashed, which is usually pretty spot on when we’re talking about 60-84 hours, but if the 12k and 3K are showing a major ice storm at the 24-48 hour mark, we need to be paying attention, as the NAM is better at picking up mid level warming in these setups than the GFS.

Just as we have suspected for days now - many in the subwill need to rely on the WAA thump for snow outside of far NW zones. 1-3/2-4” before the changeover is a reasonable forecast for dc and Baltimore with higher amounts as you head WNW of the 95 corridor. The euro is indeed trending the way we need it to as PSU pointed out, but it’s trending too slowly. Going to need to see the trend continue in Ernest at 12z and beyond or else we simply don’t have enough time to get to where we need to be by the time Sunday rolls around