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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    Don’t think so. Why would they?
  2. jayyy
    10” !? Uh. Yes please
  3. jayyy
    Tornado watches on the southern flank, snow stretching from buffalo to Mississippi, and strong convection popping up off the coast in Virginia. Fuggin Smarch storms, baby!
  4. jayyy
    Add it to the list of models printing 6” IMBY. Not sure I’ve ever seen so many models agree on me seeing WSW criteria while I have an advisory up. Oh well. It’s a good thing being under an advisory vs WSW vs blizzard warning means absolutely nothing as it pertains to the final outcome.
  5. jayyy
    Definitely In line with ground truth and current OBS. Folks on Facebook and twitter down south are pretty much indicating a clean and quick transition over to heavy snow from rain. (Thunder snow reports as well) To me, likely means models like the NAM were overdoing the sleet aspect of this storm.
  6. jayyy
    0z HRW WRF 2 (I know, not a great model blah blah) with roughly 6-8 hours of accumulating snow after the changeover depending on location. It and the HRRR have been extremely consistent all day
  7. jayyy
    It was a watch until an hour ago
  8. jayyy
    Wonder what occurred just over 6 years ago!
  9. jayyy
    Here we go Here we go, what? The hi res FV3 uses the old GFS. Who cares if it stepped back a bit. It’s not a trend setter lol
  10. jayyy
    Ground truth looks great so far. Evolution happening as expected. Perhaps a tad more robust than I expected at this juncture
  11. jayyy
    Euro GFS NAM RAP HRRR HRDPS blend here is north of 6”. Sold. Go ahead. Keep my advisory up, LWX. We oddly (and obviously 100% coincidentally) tend to overperform when we have advisories hoisted during marginal events more often than we meet warning criteria during marginal events. I’ll take the advisory knowing we’ll likely exceed the upper end and could be upgraded mid storm. There’s something awesome about having your advisory upgraded mid storm with heavy paste falling
  12. jayyy
    HERPDYDERP with a pretty decent cutoff. 6-8” north of 70 from carroll county and points WNW (with 10” lollies) and 1-3” near the metros along 95
  13. jayyy
    Doubt that plays out as depicted, but that would surely suck for some. I personally dig this run for my area
  14. jayyy
    You know it! looking like a classic setup for a #MoCoHoCoDeathBand
  15. jayyy
    24 here. Based on OBS shared by my friends in central Ohio… it’s very much coming. They went from 60 to snow yesterday to this morning.
  16. jayyy
    Huh? 0.5-1” for who? Lmao
  17. jayyy
    I know a lot of folks either focus on far NW areas or the immediate metro areas….but keep in mind that the area of best lift often occurs by the rain/snow line. Highly possible the jackpot ends up being somewhere between Winchester and Baltimore or DC. MoCo & HoCo could be in a prime position as far as being cold enough for snow and far enough SE for more intense precip. Fairly confident someone is going to successfully walk that tight rope and see 6-8 out of this.
  18. jayyy
    FV3-Hires also gets it done.
  19. jayyy
    WRF-ARW — add it to the list. Very similar outcome to other mesos
  20. jayyy
    The @losetoa6 storm! We should be money for this one! Classic march setup for our latitude to cash in
  21. jayyy
    At this point.. pretty much no major model shows MBY getting less than 4-6” in under 8 hours. I taketh.
  22. jayyy
    Appreciate the inclusion in your personal 4-8” jack zone
  23. jayyy
    Suspect we’ll be seeing WWAs in Baltimore and DC proper by 4 PM and WSW’s from Winchester to the Cotocins over though northern carroll county and northern Baltimore county if current looks hold or improve
  24. jayyy
    Reeeeeally starting to like what I’m seeing for the corridor from MBY to yours. 4-6” looking likely.
  25. jayyy
    HRRR NAM Euro RGEM - all on board. Probably the combination we want on our side at this juncture (sub 24 hours). Only “hold out” of importance is the GFS, which still paints a few inches over the entire sub forum tomorrow. Barring some wild swing back in the other direction at 18z and 00z, I’m definitely liking our chances here. NW folks should be getting excited, no doubt.
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