jayyy

The gfs actually did quite well handling that last storm… it was just a bit off on where that sharp cutoff would be. It had it further NW. otherwise, it handled the evolution of the system pretty well. Missed on the totals near I-70 and Richmond though With that being said, this setup is much different. Meso models are much more important for this type of setup when we’re talking about banding, transfer of energy to the coast, etc. GFS does well when it comes to handling one main area of low pressure tracking to our south. Not so much when we’re talking about two distinct areas of precip / lift and the interaction between them. The GFS tends to oversimplify things and see things much more uniformly, missing the nuances of miller b type storms.

That being said - the GFS just said F U and is sticking to its guns. DT is definitely hugging the GFS

If you live in the DMV, being in the northern portion of the CWA will benefit you 8/10 times, if not more, on average. Just been a wonky start to the season. Moving up to Union Bridge from south of I-70 has been night and day for me the past few seasons. HighStakes is right - it’ll even out - and then some. Just continue to be patient Tonight’s setup is much better for WV/ NVA & NE MD and points NE, than it is for the 95 corridor and central MD. As Bob Chill has warned us of a multitude of times, these types of storms do not typically end with the DC to BAL corridor / central MD jackpotting. The mountains eat up precip from the initial wave and the coastal gets going too late, leaving the middle of the CWA relatively dry in the middle, sandwiched between the two areas of best lift. We won’t know until the storms overhead, as models don’t always get the timing / placement right… but latest trends aren’t the greatest for 95. Models are bringing in the precip later And with less of a punch - neither of those scenarios help their outcome. If you’re expecting warning level snowfall, it’s more than likely you’ll be disappointed. However, if you’re cool with a solid few inches and a few hours of rippage, you’ll be satisfied. NWS’s call for 2-4” areawide with 5-6” lollies is a perfect call, IMO. No model will pinpoint exactly where these bands setup shop. It’s best to be realistic in these setups. Clskins area will see more snow than Baltimore or owings mills or dc 9/10 times in these setups. If you want warning snowfall in this setup, hug the GFS tight. It keeps the initial slug of moisture together, keeps the column cool, etc. 3-6” areawide.

These model runs tomorrow can’t come soon enough.

Let’s go!!! GFS looking prime for 95 This situation may be better suited for meso models, given the banding setup, but I’ll take it.

Great write up! Thanks for all of the info! Early trend forming perhaps that the deform band could form along or west of the bay?? Timing is everything here as you stated. Tomorrows 12z meso model suite will be absolutely crucial

Things getting a bit interesting for Baltimore and the I-95 corridor on the mesos as we get closer to the event. 3-5” looking likely for many. Suspect someone in WV will see 10” from this

Well… that’s an odd way to phrase it

Plenty of time left to see a 20-30 mile shift west as well

If we can manage a 2-4” region wide snowfall with 6” lollies, that’s a win in my book for sure. advisory for 2-4 with 6” lollies for Carroll and points west advisory for 2-4 with 5” lollies for central MD

Bingo. The smallest change in evolution and shortwave interaction has a major impact on the result in these setups. Let’s see what the Ukie Canadian and other models have to say. Euro was definitely meh but hey, at least it snows. Interested to see if meso models pick up on any sort of trend as we get within 48 hours

If this winter is going to continue to be dominated by a progressive flow without much ridging and southern sliders, we may need to start getting used to this feeling - at least for this season. These types of winters are bound to happen by sheer odds. Climo and our latitude helps us 95% of the time…. unless the primary storm track for the winter season is a suppressed one. Then it’s fairly useless. I remember a couple of winters when I still lived up in New York where coastal NJ, NYC, LI and coastal New England kept seeing 6-8-12+ snowfalls and my location (roughly 50 miles NW of NYC - a location that averages FEET more than NYC / LI / NJ each winter with a ton more elevation ) kept getting fringed. There was a storm that winter where places on Long Island saw nearly 2 feet of snow and we got 3” max in northern Rockland county. The very next storm had a similar outcome, just with lower totals. The “southern slider” winter as we called it on the old Tristateweather forum. I believe it was also a niña winter. Storm after storm kept moving quickly and sliding underneath and off the MD / DE / southern jersey coast and tracking just close enough to hit the coast with big snows, but no dice for us inland as the ULL never got captured and we weren’t seeing much in the way of digging in the trough axis. It was flat, snowless, and frustrating as all hell. We kept saying “it’ll be our turn next time” and we waited nearly a year for our next big snowfall. Not saying that’s guaranteed to happen to us this winter by any means…. But it does appear like we’re in for a more frustrating winter than average and that I-95 may finally be rewarded after several consecutive dud winters. I am definitely rooting for a region-wide warning level snow from the coast to the mountains, but those seem hard to come by nowadays. I will also gladly take a region-wide 3-6” type storm as well

It “isn’t a warning level snowfall” is typically the issue for the usual suspects. Not sure why that’s become the bar for so many. A nice 4-6” event far inland with 2-4” closer to 95 is still a nice snowfall we should very much be welcoming - especially in a setup that typically goes wrong for our area

Exactly. Let us see that 12z gfs.

12k nam brings a nice 6-8” snowfall into western areas though

That’s cause it knows it’s gonna spit out some longer range NAM nonsense

Yep. Within 60 hours now. Time to pay attention to detail

Absolutely. These storms that involve good timing and phasing aren’t typically our specialty around these parts, but anything’s possible! We have time on our side here, seeing as the storm is only roughly 60 hours out and we have some decent agreement on the models. Still plenty of time for things to change but not much.

12z should be out shortly. Shellacking incoming?

Thursday Night Snow. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Now, let us get that 6Z GFS RGEM depiction and we’re cash money!

Think that’s his point.

NEMD and points NE type storm

This storm has increase totals as we get closer to the event written all over it. Have a feeling we’ll be looking at a warning event by the time 00z Thursday rolls around.

Congrats!!

The cutoff seemed to slice Howard county in two. Roughly 3” in central and west-central HoCo with 1” in the extreme western and northern portions and a solid 4-6” in eastern hoco