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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    24 here. Based on OBS shared by my friends in central Ohio… it’s very much coming. They went from 60 to snow yesterday to this morning.
  2. jayyy
    Huh? 0.5-1” for who? Lmao
  3. jayyy
    I know a lot of folks either focus on far NW areas or the immediate metro areas….but keep in mind that the area of best lift often occurs by the rain/snow line. Highly possible the jackpot ends up being somewhere between Winchester and Baltimore or DC. MoCo & HoCo could be in a prime position as far as being cold enough for snow and far enough SE for more intense precip. Fairly confident someone is going to successfully walk that tight rope and see 6-8 out of this.
  4. jayyy
    FV3-Hires also gets it done.
  5. jayyy
    WRF-ARW — add it to the list. Very similar outcome to other mesos
  6. jayyy
    The @losetoa6 storm! We should be money for this one! Classic march setup for our latitude to cash in
  7. jayyy
    At this point.. pretty much no major model shows MBY getting less than 4-6” in under 8 hours. I taketh.
  8. jayyy
    Appreciate the inclusion in your personal 4-8” jack zone
  9. jayyy
    Suspect we’ll be seeing WWAs in Baltimore and DC proper by 4 PM and WSW’s from Winchester to the Cotocins over though northern carroll county and northern Baltimore county if current looks hold or improve
  10. jayyy
    Reeeeeally starting to like what I’m seeing for the corridor from MBY to yours. 4-6” looking likely.
  11. jayyy
    HRRR NAM Euro RGEM - all on board. Probably the combination we want on our side at this juncture (sub 24 hours). Only “hold out” of importance is the GFS, which still paints a few inches over the entire sub forum tomorrow. Barring some wild swing back in the other direction at 18z and 00z, I’m definitely liking our chances here. NW folks should be getting excited, no doubt.
  12. jayyy
    If I manage to get 4-6” of snow in 6ish hours with rapidly crashing temps and 30-40+mph winds out of this storm… a storm that looked dead 48 hours out… in march nonetheless.. that’d be a GREAT way to send winter off, no doubt.
  13. jayyy
    Looking like a consensus around a solid 2-4” advisory event for the metros is building. Would like to see 12z and especially 18z continue this trend and it’s game on there IMO. Highly depends on rates once the transition occurs. For my area over to emmitsburg, Winchester, and on east to PSUland — this is shaping into a money march setup. Warnings looking likely for our tier by tonight.
  14. jayyy
    HRRR RGEM NAM blend is a solid 6”+ storm here. I taketh. NWS is going to bust badly in Baltimore city if current trends hold.
  15. jayyy
    3k nam 6Z - several hours of snow after the changeover
  16. jayyy
    6z 12K NAM. Heavy snow in the bal dc metro corridor as it’s pouring rain in NYC and BOS. ps - where was this low positioning during the late January blizzard
  17. jayyy
    HRR / Euro / RAP / CMC blend for $500 please honestly though… when do we begin to take this backend snow possibility seriously? I’d be elated at a backend 2-3” up this way.
  18. jayyy
    It is indeed. You can see the warm pocket fairly rapidly making its way up into the Harrisburg metro. Appears folks near the MD PA border are seeing a burst of heavy snow before a quick switchover (makes sense with most intense precip usually near the rain/snow line) Emmitsburg just flipped back to rain and Gettysburg’s in the process of doing so now. My folks up in the nyc suburbs are all snow and have a SWS in place for 1-2” on grassy surfaces.
  19. jayyy
    It’s changing back to mix / rain in northern MD as we speak. My son just reported heavy snow with rain mixing back in rapidly. Radar confirms
  20. jayyy
    My sons reporting heavy snow just outside emmitsburg, but that it’s mixing back with rain again
  21. jayyy
    Color me interested.
  22. jayyy
    Nah. -2-4” of Snow in march doesn’t = 93 redux lol
  23. jayyy
    Actually… 19 degrees in 6 hours is really not a huge deal. March, April, July. Doesn’t matter. It happens and happens pretty often. Especially up this way.
  24. jayyy
    Curious to see if the NAMs hold suit at 00z and more importantly, @ 12z and 0z tomorrow. It is waaay more aggressive for Wednesday than other guidance
  25. jayyy
    I think most guidance will ultimately trend colder over the next several days, but I’m still very skeptical we get much, if any, snow out of the advertised look at H5. Chaotic and progressive in nature, and it’s March. Color me skeptical for sure. Would love to be wrong but I’m going to keep my expectations very low and hopefully I receive a nice surprise come Saturday.
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