jayyy

Need that trough to diggity, and back that coastal up!

2/25/10, 12/26/10, 1/26/11: 20” a piece Those are the biggies that come to mind from the 2010s. Of course Jan 2016 was epic there too (27.5) Just not 40”+ epic

Agree. Amazing sight. Grew up 30mi NW of NYC. I was downtown at my aunt’s apartment during the blizzard of 06. Seeing over 2 feet of snow in Central Park is something I’ll never forget.

Yeeep. My cousins live by stony brook. North shore. They are going to get smiggidy-smoked

Wish my cousins out on Long Island were home. I’d absolutely crash there this weekend if I could

It sounds so easy when you say it like that lol

Just a few small changes right? haha

Think I’m going to make the trip up tomorrow AM

It’ll be awesome to watch this all unfold at h5/500mb and to nowcast this sucker

Would be great to see 2-3” out of the initial ish

Good f-ing lord, that 18z euro lmao Models showing a cool 30”+ spread in SNE only 24 hours out. Taunton must be having fun with this one

So close. Yet so far.

Lmao, someone forecast gif hours 24-48 on the GFS 500 & MSLP maps. The progression the low goes through is absurd

Based on NWS’s expected snowfall map, a WAA isn’t going to be issued for anyone west of the bay

JMA has the trough far too broad for our liking. Goes Well east

Oof

How much for Philly?

MPP has an ice rink!?

3K looks pretty decent with the initial batch. Give me respectable precip and temps near 32-33 degrees as the sun is going down and I’ll take my chances

That’s my line of thinking. Now, I’m not talking hundreds of miles or anything. Not enough of a difference to give places west of Baltimore and DC a bunch of snow magically. but I am talking about enough of a difference to potentially place the 95 corridor and places just east firmly inside the western flank of the main precip shield. I may be completely off base here. So red / met green tags feel free to interject. But how the low behaves on the 12k NAM off Hatterus seems a bit sus to me.

We still love ya all the same.

This is exactly what I mean. How can this be correct? It looks like it attempts to correct itself, despite no mechanism present to push the storm WNW like that. That’s an odd track, no doubt. Looking at 500 and 700, it seems like the storm (and associated precip shield) should be further west when it gets going initially off the NC coastline.

Is it possible that models are popping the coastal a bit too east versus where they should be? While it’s hard for me to believe all models are making the same mistake, something seems off. Normally you’d look at 500 and 700 to get a good idea of where the MSLP should pop. The coastal should generally form and track along the baroclinic zone, not on top of convection. NAM isn’t the only model to do it either honestly, the only reason I mention this is because I read through some research on the “baroclinic zone and its affect on east coast winter cyclones” over the last few days after seeing a few METS use the term on twitter. guess we’ll find out soon enough https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249620653_The_Effect_of_Gulf_Stream-induced_Baroclinicity_on_US_East_Coast_Winter_Cyclones

Expecting Models to be able to grasp complicated setups 4-5-6-7 days out and not waiver from them, when they are simply educated guesses, is a fools errand. Go in with reasonable expectations for storms like an east tracking Miller b with no blocking and you won’t feel so let down my friend.

You’re likely correct. However… it wouldn’t be the first storm this year to end up more amped / west of what was modeled 36 hours out. Flip side, it is also a more complex and different setup than the previous storms were, so there’s no guarantee things shift NW either (no blocking) IDK man. When I see a rapidly deepening coastal low and plenty of cold air around with models flirting 8/9/12” snows just east of the bay 36 hours out… knowing the tendency for models to shift NW slowly but steadily until game time, my hopes aren’t dead for the 95 crew. Frederick, Winchester and WV? Yeah. Way too far west for coastal surprises. But DCA and especially BWI are still in the game. Windows closing very quickly though.