jayyy

If the low truly gets down to the 960s, 18-24” isn’t out of the question between eastern LI and Boston. No storm that deep, intensifying that fast is will be flying up the coast. The 500mb low closing off and tugging the mSLP toward the coast off the jersey shoreline (shown on the NAM and Euro the past few days) is the key to their success. If that doesn’t occur and the low skirts ENE, then you’re onto something for sure. Looking at mid level instability charts, the dynamics in the NE NJ to BOS region are ripe for convective banding. All it takes is roughly 6 hours of 2-3” banding to get them to 12-18”. Seen it happen many times over the years living in the northeast in very similar setups. It all comes down to how quickly this storm travels from VA to south of LI.

It’s likely going to snow 12-18” widespread along the coast from NJ to Boston with winds up to 70mph as the low drops into the 960s south of LI. It’s not really overhyped. It’s simply not the type of storm that does well at our latitude.

There is definitely more than 2” in most areas along the Delaware coast and they aren’t even close to done. The storm isn’t really flying either. It’s center is still at the NC latitude and won’t really be hauling ass as it’s captured by the 500mb low that closes off along the coast. Will the DE coast see 18”? No. But let’s not call a bust until it’s over

Trough went negative about 2 hours earlier than expected. Low is intensifying at > 2 millibars per hour now. Might help get an extra inch or two to places east of 95

Probably my final obs for the night until my tired (and buzzed) self wakes up: Heavy snow, 29F, 3.25” 1.5-2” per hour rates currently with 3+” per hour rates possible in the coming hours. Sadly I’ll be asleep for a chunk of it - asbury park

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html A) beautiful evolution b) that tilt though…

Tasty. The next several hours are going to be wild

Crazy how close the western edge gets to the bay. Hoping the 500 mb low pulls this sucker close enough to hit you with a few hours of fun overnight

The western flank of that mega band is right up against the bay. Wonder if any of those make their way into Baltimore as the low approaches

Heavy snow, 31F - Asbury park The beach cams up and down the coast from ocean city md to point pleasant are wild. Ortley Beach, 30 mins south of where I am, is getting smoked.

Man, Baltimore is going to get real close. Once the 500low closes off and pulls the coastal west a bit around OBX’s latitude, it’s hard to see Baltimore not getting some hours of solid snow. CAPE - pretty sure those higher totals may verify out your way. Radar is quite promising

Heavy snow on the immediate coast is sweet. Feeling kinda cute. Might jebwalk to the boardwalk tomorrow.

Correct.

Nope. It’s Useless at game time.

It’s going to be awfully close. Zero doubt in my mind CAPE gets the goods.

Thank you! 10-14” is my call up this way. They should have it all cleared out in time for me to drive back Sunday evening. Bust risk on both ends is quite high I reckon. NWS has a BW up for 10-18. We shall see

Snow has finally made its way over here to Asbury Park. 32 degrees, but it feels a lot colder (24F windchill)

Looking for the radar between Wilmington and charlotte NC to begin filling in as the coastal gets cranking

I’d be clinging onto the same notion. They certainly have a 10x better shot than DC to BAL

Lol, chilllll man. My limit is 163

I can only imagine. I think it may bust big time in Boston proper. Seen this saw and dance before. One model camp shows 6” and another showing 30”. Rarely ends with the latter for them. These setups can go very wrong, very quickly for BOS, while the hamptons over to cape cod still cash in. December 2000 comes to mind here. Miller B transfer situation. Widespread 10-20+ with 30” lollies all around NYC (NNJ, NYC, Western LI, extreme W CT) while Boston, RI and coastal SNE saw 4-6”. Still think where I am in coastal NJ should do ok

Lived up in this area (nyc surrounding area) long enough growing up to know that the current look at h5 and position of the surface low means a monster storm is coming for roughly Trenton and points ENE tomorrow. Absolute textbook setup. Excited to watch the bands come off the Atlantic tomorrow. Will try and capture some pics for y’all.

If it heads directly to where the isobars are pointing, that wouldn’t be half bad as far as positioning is concerned.

Next several hours will be key

Radar appears to be consolidating a bit. Perhaps a bit further south and less expensive than was shown last night on the 12k nam, but it looks awfully similar so far