jayyy

Today I think

2/5 - 2/11 - big window of interest. GFS depicts an active jet with numerous shortwaves - 1 or 2 try to blow up off the coast. Shows the possibility for winter weather on the 5th, 9th, and 11th.

Could be worse

OKX is expecting a sharp cutoff and they are way further north and east of us. Lived in the NYC suburbs for 25+ years. Love the Mets over at OKX. They typically do a great job forecasting these types of setups. Discussed this the other day a bit. With Miller b’s, my folks area typically sees either: 1) 3-6” (east tracking Miller b w/ little to no blocking) while LI to cape cod get 12+ 2) 6-12”+ and Long Island gets 4-8+ with mixing or rain in the Hamptons (coastal hugger with blocking. Can see 12-24+ in a slow mover) They are going with option 1 for obvious reasons. Fujny enough, the 5.5” shown on the map for the town new city (NW of NYC) is my hometown. One thing is for sure, I’m not going to chase 5.5”. I suspect we’ll begin to see models converge in the coming few runs as they get a handle on what’s going on out west in real time. Still a good amount of differences among models.

Eastern shore lost a solid 0.4+ of qpf on this run. Gonna be tough watching heavy snow on the radar east of the bay, whether it’s 6” or 12+ Think I’ve made my decision on where I’ll be staying for this one

I’ll be here through the euro. Last EC run I really care about. Inside 72 it’s not so useful (not like it’s been great in the mid range this winter either) - What I really want to see from the euro is the look at 500 /h5 versus the Canadian, nam, and Gfs. Less concerned about surface output since thats still all over the place across most models. (Would seriously hate to be a met along the east coast right now)

Holy hell. What did I miss

I may still head to see my family up north depending on how this all shakes out at 0z Its pretty wild how differently each model is still handling the energy in the SW at this range.

My apologies. So… one model (with a known bias to overdo phasing and the western flank of coastals) as the rest lost 1-2 feet of digital snow. Not much better :/

Stage 5 meltdown in progress in the NE forum. Oof. NAM GFS ICON and RGEM all crumbled after showing 1-3 feet for days. That’s rough.

It wasn’t what you said. It was how you said it friend.

Just popped in to give my condolences for the 30” of digital snow porn the NAM Euro ICON and RGEM just took away. But hey, at least you’re not in the mid Atlantic.

I’m honestly interested in the PRE that LWX mentions in their AFD. Pete Mullinax also refers to this in his twitter thread; the possibility of enhanced snowfall / banding in our area from the NS wave. It appears the NS wave overperforming is many of our best shot to see appreciable snowfall at this point, except for CAPE’s area.

Unless we see some drastic changes at 00z, I’m likely heading up north to “see family” for this one

Not necessarily. If places manage 2-3” from the NS and 1-2” from the coastal (95 east) and a bit less further west, it’s doable. But I agree that the trend isn’t being our friend right now. Another few runs like this, and yeah, even these totals are too high. But it’s early. They have time to fine tune.

I’d sign up in a heartbeat

Yep. 6z icon is a whiff too. Even further east than the GFS and Nam

6z Nam/Gfs 00z euro and 3z SREF already pretty damn similar with low position — all too Far East. SNE gets the brunt. Even NYC is too far west for the goodies. Not a good start to the day. Suspect the ICON, 6z euro and the rest will follow suit.

No one but cape cod and extreme SE NE really gets in on the very heavy stuff. Gets going too late. Hopefully it’s a progressive bias, but without blocking, we cannot rule this likelihood out. We need an earlier phase and the trough to go negative earlier. If this continues, 00z tonight is when I likely throw up the white flag for the metro corridor

Trough didn’t go negative in time - 6z Gfs There is certainly time / room for improvements — however, the windows closing on us fast. We need to see better hits by 00z tonight or we’re in trouble.

Not a great sign to see the snowiest solutions (euro and nam) trend flatter as we get closer. We need them to hold suit and others to move toward them, not vice Versa. Thankfully it’s still only Wednesday. I’ll wait until 00z Thursday night before throwing in the towel for 95 & points east. Windows closing quickly for western areas without seeing meaningful changes in the upcoming runs, no doubt.

Definitely not a great start to the 6z suite

Surface low appears further east

So. Slow. On TT

Ridge out west continues to look good