jayyy

General 1-2” on the Canadian w/ 4-5” lollies outside CHO

Lol, the gfs was about to accidentally spit out an area wide SECS and had to reconfigure

Honestly, expect up to 1” for most of MD and NoVA with best case upside 2-3” if the storms a bit juicier than progged. Best chance for that is dc south.

6z 12k nam 10:1 Obviously, it’s the 12k nam and it’s on its own island, so I wouldn’ take it too seriously. Still a decent amount of spread being only 72 hours out but the windows closing quickly for the gfs to get back to 6z yesterdays solution

NAM’d!

Miller b type snow map from the ukie. 6+ for most of us ain’t bad though. Of course, nyc to New England gets smoked

Thread, dare I say? King gfs is in

Few more ticks in the right direction and this could be a 6+ area wide event

Here’s the 10:1 through 120, so not quite accurate but a general depiction

Decent snows occurring between 102-108

1037 high in Canada

It does. 96 is even better

96

Not sure this will get it done, but let’s see the next few frames

Disagree..every model says no every model says no to what? A SECS? Lol. Lower your expectations. The 18z gfs dropped 4+ in your area didn’t it?

It’s a good thing the GFS’s 10:1 snowfall map will change 20 times between now and the 14th then huh

Far too much progressive west to east action with an active NS is definitely niña’esque

So we have potentials on the table for the 14th and 18th. Looks like the latter will likely have a better setup in place but both bear watching. Not a terrible spot to be as far as the euro is concerned for the Valentine’s Day threat. Definitely sucks to keep having to rely on the +PNA to be just right (position and strength) and hoping for an early negative trough tilt. Those timing systems typically end up getting together too late for our latitude (a la the blizzard a few weeks ago) but hey, maybe we get lucky with one or two of these. I’d certainly take a 3-6/4-8” type event out of a pattern like this. As PSU said, we need some luck, which we haven’t had much of this winter.

LES, inland runners, NS waves, SW parade riding the boundary… W NY seems to be the winner every damn time this winter. 84.8 is the annual average at KBUF. They’ll be at 65+ by 2/5. Bastards. Lol. All I want is one coastal hugger tucked off the coast of OCMD. SHEESH.

Looks like the Gfs, Canadian, euro, icon and most other models are pushing the Sunday - Monday threat to the south for now. Out to sea in SEVA / NC. Not great but models also appear to be clueless as to what’s going on in the upper levels. The changes at h5 run to run are pretty drastic, which means we’ll likely see 50 different solutions between now and 00z Saturday. Wouldn’t necessarily get too invested in this one, but it’s worth keep an eye on incase we’re looking better by 0z tomorrow night or Friday. Certainly not going to lose any sleep tracking this one.

It does. However, moving from central Maryland to northern Maryland only does so much when big snowstorms keep occurring 200+ miles in any given direction all season lol. Last year? Your move would have been fruitful. Perhaps the start to this season is our karma for getting 40-50” last year while the metros barely hit double digits. Got very lucky last winter up this way. It’s only early February though, and the time is quickly approaching for a) deeper storms with a likelihood for more coastal huggers b) marginal events with more traditional fall line setups. We’ll catch up, and quickly. Keep the faith! Have a feeling our luck will improve drastically over the coming 6-8 weeks

Yep, a dual high in Virginia and southern New England won’t cut it lol

.3 of ice and 8” of snow? Oh hell yes. Too bad it’ll change 37 times over the next 150 hours lol

I can’t even ask how much for short pump