jayyy

Side note after digging into the specifics a bit. The 850 MB low on the 18z euro is significantly deeper than on the 12Z ECMWF run and in the same position. Just an observation.

Solid setup coming

Correct. It’s fine to have differing opinions on things - no need to be condescending in the process. I get that a given model isn’t necessarily “trending”, but when models are collecting more recent data, and that data results in a systematic shift in a particular direction 2 days in a row, one could consider that an overall trend. If all models are moving west, to say we are seeing a west trend with the outcome is a reasonable thing to say. At least in my eyes. We’re parsing words here honestly. Pretty stupid argument lol. What else would you call it?

I haven’t said a word since I made one comment about hoping for an average of a 25 mile shift west with each run. Which, is completely plausible. Coming from someone who uttered the words “the storm being further west won’t help us”, you should probably get off your high horse on this one. No one cares about your definition of the word trend. Carry on. By the way - it’s called the rock and sock connection.

Great. If you’re looking at it from the perspective of things slowly shifting in a direction over a period of time, it’s a trend. How’s Philly

It’s fine. It’s not great if you want a MECS or HECS to occur, yes, but a track offshore with proper phasing and a mature moisture field can still lay down 3-6” in your area - even with the low not tucked. Of course, the OCMD tuck is the perfect scenario, but it’s unlikely to happen given the setup. If people have reasonable expectations for a complex Miller B in a niña, we’ll likely end up doing just fine

This is great and all, except for the fact that there are absolutely trends on models

I’m on lunch at work. Time for some happy hour drinks to bring in the good juju

It matters when we’re talking about trends. JMA euro and NAM on their own island is an issue. However, having the ICON CMC RGEM and GFS also see a nice west trend, it brings legitimacy to the possibility.

As @psuhoffman has said a few times, we need to be cautious here. Only having the NAM / Euro showing such a west solution is a bit of a warning sign given their know biases to overdo the western flank of storms. We need to see other models continue the trend west

Imagine this thing trends into a storm that has the primary steal the show and rob the coastal. I’d quit

Sure is. Means the low is tucked. Probably a very good snowstorm for Baltimore on that run if it ran out that far

We know. But the evolution through 48-72 hours is very much within its range, and there were drastic differences at h5 that led to the amped up solution that unfolded at 84. It cant just be tossed, especially with the ECMWF CMC RGEM and Gfs all trending west

I’d honestly be happy with a 3-6” type event for our general area (far NW). I’m likely either going to my brother’s for this one closer to 95 or to see my folks up in New York. Haven’t decided. If trends continue, Baltimore could very well score big here

That 1034 HP above Nh. Money

Which means it’ll likely snow.

Right? There’s not enough hometown pride in the world for me to drink Busch

Quick, somebody create blocking

Trend has been our friend today. Let’s see it continue at 18z and beyond. Tired of this 2 steps forward, one step back nonsense.

Waiting for “RSC” to come in with another “the low tracking further west won’t help” comment after these runs. Sure as sh** helped.

Unless this showed 30” in your backyard - then you wouldn’t stop talking about it and you’d be back to pretending like you see more snow than Winchester.

I’d argue that majority of people in here care

@cape would probably sell their left nut for this outcome lol

January 3rd was pretty much a nothing burger until New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day. Im not sure if better sampling caused the necessary changes we needed to see a sizable shift in the outcome leading in, but we don’t really need “wholesale” changes for this to be a respectable event for many is my point. A sizable shift in outcome (snow totals) doesn’t always equate to major changes at h5 / 500mb. Getting those 6-10” totals from the eastern shore to Baltimore wouldn't really require massive changes. A bit better ridging, a sharper trough, more digging, a slightly earlier phase, etc goes a long way when you’re talking 100-150 miles No one’s expecting a KU or MECS here. I’m talking about a low end warning event for 95 east.

True. However, if we were bullseyed 4+ days out, we’d all be worried about the inevitable shift west. We’ve certainly been in worse positions 4 days out.