jayyy

Doesn’t get much better than this

Right on queue.

00z GFS was wide right but still wasn’t too far away from hitting us with some snow on the 30th. NYC / LI into SNE get ROCKED with 6-12 hours of very heavy snow . All I really take away from these runs this far out (198 hours) is the possibility of a gulf low making the turn up the coast and bombing out (gets to sub 980) Details, such as needing a track 150 miles further west, aren’t all that important yet. The 6z run coming up could easily show a foot for us with relatively minute changes upstairs. For me… overall trends and keeping the potential alive for seeing a gulf low bomb out somewhere along the coast is more important than exact details until we get inside 120 (D5) when models will have far more data to work with.

My reply was for Ji. Not sure why it tagged your reply.

This is why you dont want the op to show a huge storm 8 days out. No where to go but down....down deep into the black pit of digital snow loss An op run showing a big snowstorm 8 days out is irrelevant as to whether or not it happens. You’re talking as if these are curses - like opening a storm thread. We’ve seen plenty of storms over the years get modeled 8-10 days out and come to fruition. Exactly as depicted? Of course not. We’ve seen storms get sniffed out early, lost, only to come back again. We have seen storms get sniffed out early and remain on models throughout. Pretty sure one of those dropped like 3 feet of snow in your house in Jan of 2016? We’ve also seen storms materialize in under 48 hours before. You can’t live and die by each run. You know that. Big differences between 12z to 0z when you’re 7+ days away is absolutely meaningless.

Welp… one thing is for sure…. Well have plenty of tracking to do over the next 2-3 weeks. I have little doubt we see a 6”+ type storm between now and feb 7th

I’ll take 6-12+ with some sleet at the height as the storm passes underneath before we get deathbanded. In a hot damn heartbeat.

Wow at the GFS / GGEM. Of course, all we should be taking away from this is the overall potential for a bomb off the east coast in the 7-10 day timeframe, but DAAAAYUM, nonetheless. 30” in Augusta Also appears we should not be writing off a potential for a quick 1-2” type clipper for Sunday PM or the Tuesday threat either at this juncture. Spacing looks better for Tuesday. A few more days with improvements at 500 and we are certainly in the game.

I can never tell if you’re being serious. Why are you so concerned about verbatim surface maps and timing of phases in the long range? You know things will change 500x between now and then.

It’s also not in New England if I’m not mistaken. It’s in the “northeast”

HRW and HRW-2 both inching closer as well as far as precip totals are concerned. Let’s see what the varsity models have to say.

SREF gets close, but no cigar. A few more ticks NW though and who knows? Gets the 2-3” line awfully close to CAPEtown Let’s see how 18z unfolds

I mean…. We’ve got what? 4 or so major suites (18z, 0z, 6z, 12z, and so on) left between now and storm time? I’m definitely not discounting I-95 east from seeing some snow if this bad boy keeps trending NW and better at 500. Cape may end up with 2-4”+ by the time this sucker hits at this rate

What a turn of events that’d be

Absolutely! Been enjoying the visual for the past hour or so

Read my mind. Bob alluded to this the other day. What happens if the front doesn’t make it as far as modeled? It’d be sweet to see a last minute NW shift as a result but I’m not holding my breath.

My brother just sent a video on his way out of the house. Big flakes mixing in there. Should see some snow for a bit your way but doubt there’s any stickage south of 70

32F, snow. I’ll probably get to 1/2” if I’m lucky.

NWS finally dropped the WWA for 2” (3-4” max) at 7:30 AM and now has “rain to snow, up to 1” on grassy surface. Little late I’d say. Writing has been on the wall, clear as day, for several hours.

Wasnt even close to Being close Heavy snow depicted in the state of Maryland is close. Even if it is the shoreline.

Here you go. Looks like it corrected the problem

Same obs. here. Best rates so far occurring as we speak IMBY. Looks lovely out there. Give me another hour or two of fatty flakes and a nice ground whitening and I’ll be happy at this point

20% is probably optimistic indeed, but I believe that’s the max threshold for “slight” chances — 1-20% chance There are a few members that still attempt to give the area some snow, especially 95 and east, but yeah, the windows closing.

Eyeing the Columbia to Annapolis corridor for heavy snow over the next hour or two. Far enough SE to see heavier returns with the rain snow line collapsing nearby. It won’t stick but hey, it’ll look pretty outside for a wee bit

Snowing nicely out there - 33 degrees At least I got to see moderate snow falling at sunrise