jayyy

Love me a sneaky little snowstorm! 3k verbatim would be a nice hit in a very short perios Plus… it seems that whenever LWX goes with advisories for 1-3, we over perform. Watch I-95 get 2-3” and 3-5 in the NW zones now lol

Qpf hates Leesburg Thurmont with another 6-10” lol. My son is already sick of the snow up at the mount. Clearly he doesn’t follow in his pops footsteps.

Boo ya! 2-3 sounds swell. Im expecting 1”. Anything more is great. Invites open for @North Balti Zen - I’ll have the wife invite a friend.

It ain’t over for sure! Actually think this depicted storm will be our second to last shot at a biggie. There will likely be another shot at a big storm after the pattern reloads in mid March (The last hurrah). Some long range guidance is hinting at another attempt at high latitude blocking around the March 14th timeframe. Will it be tough? Yep. Will it be 40-50, maybe even touch 60 some days over the next 4-6 weeks? Yep. But there’s plenty of evidence that we will have at least 2 more windows of opportunity - including a Miller A meeting a nicely timed cold shot mid month. I don’t see anything in the EPS GEFS or EC that screams that the kiss of death for winter is upon us. Not even close.

Seriously? We can already see that this weeks warm up, and likely the one after that will be short lived and could very well have snow chances on either side of them. Winter is not over. Not here, and not for your area either, IMO. Some of our best all time snows have occurred during volatile patterns. We always don’t need a -NAO/-AO/-EPO/+PNA pattern to get a biggie - or any snowstorm for that matter. In fact, this area does just fine in a neutral, and even slightly positive NAO state. March will come in like a lion for many of us in this forum. 80s in Florida and over the gulf, meet arctic air. Will there be some days in the 40s and 50s? Yes. 100%. There’s nothing to lock in deep arctic air long term. However, There will be plenty of cold shots coming into the plains/northeast, and plenty of systems developing and tracking through an active SJS. We will need a few pieces to fall into place - timing of cold air and a storm - SE ridge relaxing a bit and a temporary neutral or PNA , but that’s perfectly okay. I know @psuhoffman @Bob Chill and @clskinsfan could probably list off a good number of second half of season storms that occurred during less than ideal patterns ie: +NAO +AO patterns. I actually that think our area’s propensity to be within 50-100 miles of the transition zone will pay off big time in the next few weeks. Stay strong, @Ji I know it’s been a tough winter. Your latitude has been extremely unlucky for a multitude of reasons. But don’t fret. We’ve got this. Channel your inner @WinterWxLuvr and get on the train!!!

Que @ravensrule

All in for our latitude. Think we see 2-5” Monday and a banger next weekend.

? What is your beef. PS- My wife has friends. Just saying.

Dover has been the Capitol of backend snowfall all winter long. They miss the main storm and then bands from the ULL seem to always hit them. Have had snow showers and flurries falling up here throughout the day with these meandering precip blobs / bands. Made for a lovely day and kept temps down. 0.3” of new snow since last night.

Oh wow. Woke up to a nice surprise this morning! Fresh snow, snow falling and a gorgeous layer of ice underneath it Snowpack holding at 6”

Thank you for this. Just found out I’m at precisely 644 feet. Hope you faired well up your way earlier!

Think you actually could flip to snow if a nice slug of precip makes it way in. That warm layer aloft is weak sauce now that the jet has long exited the area and could easily be overcome if precip doesn’t get torn apart by the apps

Yep. Seasonal averages are just that… averages. I know every storm is different, but there is something to be said about it “snowing where it wants to snow” during a particular season. This season happens to be for the Northern mid Atlantic and southern New England. South/Central PA over to NJ, the greater NYC metro and coastal New England. Aka Miller B city. Up here in Northern MD, as well as extreme N VA and N WV, we got extremely lucky to get in on the southern axis of that jackpot area all season long. I remember plenty of winters in the early 2010’s where all it wanted was to snow along 95 and points east. NYC LI coastal NJ and southern New England (Boston) kept getting hammered while areas 30-50 miles NW of nyc got fringed regularly. As for the metros this year… that’s part luck of the draw, part each storm missing something key like a sufficient west coast ridge, a negatively tilted trough, a bad 850 low track, a nice HP in place up north, etc. Because of this, we had no area-wide (coast to the mountains) major snowfalls. Every single storm seemed like a nail biter as far as temps were concerned. As somebody mentioned the other day, it wasn’t a cold or warm winter. Our “cold air” was quite average and it showed when it came to storm time. We did see a few ideal setups and DC/BAL just happened to end up 30 miles on the wrong side of the tracks. Not exactly sure if it’s the elephant in the room moving the fall line farther NW, or just a series of seasons where NW areas got lucky. Who knows, perhaps next year ends up being a blockbuster season for the coast and starts a new trend in the opposite direction.

Dang! Have me beat by 3.5”! That extra 400 feet doe

Definitely snowing outside

I mean… totally being a weenie here, but I can definitely see how this overperforms if we can manage to get a decent swath of moderate precip overhead overnight. Won’t take much. Also won’t take much to rip those chances to shreds. Sounds like a wait and see kind of deal. Shit.. if I can squeeze another 1.5” out of this to get me to double digits for the storm, I’ll weenie it out and rest my hopes on a presumed failure.

Some Guidance has precip developing to our SW and heading this direction by 0z. Looks like it’s changing back to snow pretty easily under heavier banding out west. I’m sure something will ruin it, but hey, I’ll root for a quick additional inch or two, why not…

Precip blossoming over KY a bit.

IAD soundings showed a +1c warm layer between 800-825 leading up to that storm. The surface was plenty cold - it hit 20 here last night - but the cold wasn’t deep enough for all layers to get below freezing all the way into the metros. We didn’t have the dynamics in place or mid level lows closing to our south to keep the mid levels at bay. I experienced freezing rain in sub 20-25 degree conditions multiple times up in NY. It sucks man.

Exactly. 3 razor thin marginal events where I got 10”, 10”,’and 8.5” and DC saw under 3” makes the difference between an above avg winter and a lackluster / disappointing winter

Yep. The TPV placement absolutely screwed our area out of getting multiple big snows in the past 10 days - potentially 4 high end advisory and/or warning level events. If it rolled east ahead of that 3 wave storm, instead of getting caught up in the upper Midwest / Plains, we would have seen both epic cold and an epic run of snowfall. Of course, if 0-10 degree temps made it here, we may have been worrying about something entirely different as far as storm track is concerned #PSUFringed

It’s been fairly consistent with this too. Bears watching. My rule of thump regarding storms 3-4 days out in an active pattern is to let the current storm completely exit the area and wait until at least 12z or 0z the following day to see if the threat is still there in general. If so, great. Feel as though models don’t get the best picture of what’s coming in the medium range until then. Screw it, let’s track 3-5” for Monday until it fades away on us

Come on friends. Don’t go begging for the torch yet! Sure, we mainly lose the favorable 500mb/h5 setup next week, but ask feb 2015 if you need a -NAO/-AO to get good snows in a marginal setup. We can all name solid storms that occurred in late feb into March or storms that have threaded the needle during less than ideal setups. IE: an overnight thump, a perfectly timed/placed high and SLP track to our SE, or a nicely placed/timed ridge out west. Strong gulf lows (Miller A potential) begin firing up in the GOM this time of year and we could get lucky with one or two throwing moisture our way with decent cold air in place or overnight. I know things haven’t gone as expected for many closer to the metros, and folks have every right to be pessimistic about a marginal setup after what’s happened all winter, including last night / this morning, but It ain’t over til the fat lady sings. After 40” IMBY STD and a bunch of very near misses in and near the metros, I still think this winter season isn’t over quite yet. Think 95 - especially the immediate suburbs gets a warning level event before all is said and done. Likely occurring at the tail end of a cold shot (transition period) - especially as we begin to see larger temperature gradients in the coming weeks and more dynamic storms making their way through the SJS. I may very well be wrong, but I think one of these storms at the end goes right for a large majority of the area. PS - a NC bullseye this far out is perfect lmao

Round deuce?