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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Wilma I think was fastest it was a TS to a 5 in like 22 hours or something close to that. There’s been many that have gone TS to a 3 or 4 relatively fast as well
  2. SnowGoose69
    Definitely have noticed that but so often seems the track is some combo of the Euro/GFS/HWRF
  3. SnowGoose69
    The NHC track looks exactly like the Euro too. I have found in recent years NHC focuses more as far as track on the Euro as well as the HWRF/HMON. Those other spaghetti models just seem more often to be ignored now by them or considered less. It’s clear they’re not buying the N-NNW movement after landfall, at least not til the system is weaker hours later. That NNW movement idea to me only would work if this comes in as a weak mess. If it’s a strong 2 or higher it’s going to move E of N for awhile after landfall despite any upper low to the west
  4. SnowGoose69
    The NAM agreeing with the current 00Z hurricane models would be the best NAM/ETA hurricane track forecast in history at 72-84 if it verified
  5. SnowGoose69
    The problem is the dry air issue seems non existent this time so something else is going to have to save it.
  6. SnowGoose69
    By the old rule you wanna be in Atlanta or Apalachicola right now if you do NOT want to get hit by this. You know, even in 2024 its never going to take anything close to that exact track, by that I mean still within 100 miles but 100 miles left or right is everything.
  7. SnowGoose69
    All of them seem closer to the Yucatan too. A further NW track is not good overall as it might enable it to both stay over the Gulf longer and also hit the area of warmer waters
  8. SnowGoose69
    A cool 100mb difference from the 12Z HAFS-B lol
  9. SnowGoose69
    The track on the hurricane models too IMO is not likely after landfall. I think the NNE or NE movement after landfall is more likely, especially if this is a 3 or 4. A hurricane that strong more often can be somewhat deflected by a feature such as the low over the WRN gulf states vs absorbed in.
  10. SnowGoose69
    This feels like when all the models show a massive coastal storm at Day 7-8 and everyone assumes its 2024 the models cannot all be wrong on that, SOMETHING will happen and then we've seen often times it does not since 96-120 tends to be more of the magical range for that theory. Add in that everything has struggled to develop this year and you'd still need a perfect scenario where it misses the Yucatan here for this to be something close to what guidance is indicating. I think A storm happens but the odds something this perfect materializes is low
  11. SnowGoose69
    Saw JB's Euro seasonal post and it makes no sense IMO. I don't see why you'd basically have a nationwide torch in a weak Nina following a moderate Nino, there really is no track record of that ever happening. If want to go purely off the ENSO you'd say 54-55 83-84 92-93 16-17 seem to be the closest matches of weak Nina following Mod or greater Nino. None of those were nationwide torches at all. I guess the problem is 2 were in a +PDO ERA. 16-17 is the only thing remotely close to that Euro seasonal US temp anomaly forecast and even the west was way colder.
  12. SnowGoose69
    Tomorrow evening could be active for central and eastern LI
  13. SnowGoose69
    Lightning now on the area of cells west of Staten Island headed for the southern part of the metro
  14. SnowGoose69
    No lightning yet but not likely to see a ton of convection on the line til 21Z or as it approaches the area
  15. SnowGoose69
    OFBs now blowing things up all over, cells popping near LGA though they're just high topped showers for now. Also more development happening west of SI over NJ
  16. SnowGoose69
    Looks like the WRF-ARW and the RDPS were closest to the 18-20Z evolution overall. I think 22-01Z is the window for most of the area north of that, the steering flow veers more W to SW.
  17. SnowGoose69
    Its about a Danbury to Sussex County line. I am not sure it makes it much past around New Brunswick by this evening. I felt yesterday it would clear safely south of the metro by 15-16z. We should see cells form on it too as early as 17Z, especially NYC east
  18. SnowGoose69
    The front is not pressing as far south as expected yesterday so this could be bad for the area whereas I leaned more central NJ or E PA 24 hours ago
  19. SnowGoose69
    The NY harbor earthcam now looks like a microburst...just a wall of white
  20. SnowGoose69
    EWR probably hit 100, as soon as winds shifted from 160-220 they warmed up
  21. SnowGoose69
    More resembles the WRF-ARW2 now which by far has been closest to what is happening on timing and formation of cells
  22. SnowGoose69
    Its only showers but already more activity initiating in PA than the HRRR showed. Could still see a line of TSTMs here 22-23z
  23. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR IMO is underdone somewhat while the 3km NAM is likely overdone. The instability sort of peaks more in NJ. We may see little to nothing on that line til the disturbance reaches far NE PA and W NJ but development would probably fire up much faster than the HRRR indicates
  24. SnowGoose69
    We'll see if ocean temps are warm enough for these cells to maybe make it across and impact southern Queens or Brooklyn but I think they'll weaken
  25. SnowGoose69
    The SUNY Oswego webcams look like there could be a wall cloud off to the west but its not rotating from what I see and may just be leftover from an old circulation
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