SnowGoose69

Its wobbled north last 30 mins but it looks like it may go smack between the NHC track and the UKMET. I am not certain as of now it'll make it over into that clustered region of plots

Tendency with big storms is to have an east bias.

NHC might be committed now. Not sure they're gonna make any E moves now, they've sort of layed out the reasoning and might go down with the ship somewhat

Based on current radar of center I'd lean it does come in E of TLH but a few wobbles will change that

Euro LF no different than 06z run...its probably too far east as its east of the NHC track. Over N-CNTRL GA it ticked east again

FOX WX forecasting 90 mph gusts in ATL

The HMON is the only cane model on tidbits showing any semblance of a N or NNW track over GA and its still 70 miles E of the NHC track

Those HAFS/HWRF/HMON I notice too are not capturing the 10m winds inland. My experience has been the HRRR max 10m wind product verifies well with these inland once inside 8 hours.

HAFS-B first 12z in nearly same LF point as 06z but slower, close to NHC LF point

Recently they've had some events where they've had decent sized misses, not necessarily on LF but post LF to a degree as I have said may be the case here.

I think their LF Point is gonna be right, TBH it may even be a bit west of that but their motion afterwards through the body of FL into GA I'd be surprised if it did not verify 50 or so miles too far W

The stranger thing is how far west they continue to be over GA

The 3KM NAM continues to show that tendency of not wanting to capture and hook til its 965-970 or weaker.

The core of those is mostly dead on the current NHC track, wonder if they will keep shifting east though. As you said, the ultimate LF point looks like its maybe on east end of that

I think the current NHC track is 40 miles or so E of the 5pm yesterday Its east of ATL by a nose

The 925mb winds are fairly unimpressive on the west side of this once it reaches ATL’s latitude. I could see them not even hitting 40kts if this passes 30-50 miles east of them. There isn’t a big high to the north over the Oh Valley or Midwest so you don’t really have anything aiding the pressure gradient with the storm once it gets 100 miles or more inland so really only near and barely east of the center would likely see winds capable of very nasty damage but ATL itself even with 35-40kts could see probably a few hundred thousand lose power

Looks like their first east adjustment in awhile, albeit not much

Sometimes, at least as far as wind a strengthening 2 at landfall can be worse than a weakening 3 or 4, we've seen how winds often do not effectively mix down as well sometimes in weakening canes.

The 3km NAM I think illustrates how the strength of this determines how fast it gets tugged., comes in at 908mb The 00Z 3k NAM does not really begin pulling this NNW til it gets over 966mb in CNTRL GA. In the end its maybe 50-60 miles east of the NHC track. This is why I have been saying, Cat 3 or 4 at LF, the NHC track over N-CNTRL GA may be as much as 80 miles too far west. If this somehow comes in as a 1 or 2 it might get pulled hard fast and something crazy like those extreme west tracks may happen like even 20 miles west of the NHC one into AL.

The current NHC track if it verified I almost think ATL would be too far east to see worst winds, often once a system gets that far inland the very strong winds are within 20 miles or so of the center. could see where the east side of the city was too far east for it on that track but still think its going to verify over them or east

18Z Euro not much change, if anything the capture over GA is a bit later.

I almost always assume a LF point 10-15 miles east of what you think 6-12 hours out as the frictional effect usually results in the eye taking jogs E or in the case of a E-W moving storm, north before it comes ashore

I've found storms where they are not though. We've seen tropicals where NHC is using the Euro dead on and basically ignoring those hurricane models

I was surprised honestly they went that aggressive. They rarely will go too nuts on intensity fcsts as its still hard to predict

Since no model shows the track NHC has I took the euro and extrapolated the winds it has for airports west of Augusta and it would likely be 55-60kt gusts for ATL