weatherpruf

That's a little further than just west...just west would be Linden, Rahway, Elizabeth, Newark....New brunswick is northern CNJ. They often get very different snow totals from me just west of SI. But I generally live in a snow hole, and if it can find a way not to snow much here, it will.

Actually there is no light anymore; fish there quite a bit in summer ( on my friend's boat, and he is rather limited in his fishing ability and insists on running from Edison NJ all the way to the end of Ambrose because reasons....) gets evil in a hurry out there.....

NYC is pretty big: SI will not have the same snows as the Bronx a lot of time. QUeens often gets more if the storm is more east. So "NYC does fine" in what way?

My rule of thumb, Forky, is to buy gas for the snowblower once you start getting interested in a storm....fortunately I bought some during a recent power outage.

Probably dyscalculia. It was rarely diagnosed back in the day; a relatively intelligent person who can't make sense of math. Could be sitting in one class dissecting Moby Dick passages then walk into Algebra and within ten minutes be going WTF? So I rely on people here to interpret the technical stuff. Most do a good job IMO. After all these years I still gotta look up those times ( I know military times from having been a guard in college ).

Ah, this place would be infinitely dull without the basement types. I could read NOAA forecasts if I just want unfiltered, straight up forecasts. They have a pretty good discussion portion for each area; gets right to the point. And they are all experts ( and they are wrong sometimes too; in fact the disrespect for experts in this culture has been called the meteorologist syndrome...). So, lighten up a bit. Be happy some teens in basements are here instead of engaging in less respectable endeavors.

Amateur here, been around since 2010, but I can say these forum discussions all have a pattern; they waffle back and forth, my portion of CNJ is always on the border of any precip, and nothing is locked in until the night before the event starts. And even then, at least in my area, it doesn't usually look like what was forecast ( several storms over the years delivered inches when feet were forecast ) . Even Boxing Day wasn't really fixed until shortly before. Oh, and rain always gets here sooner than forecast. And I have yet to see a significant backend ( as opposed to a storm that flips to snow; those I have seen ). Still, I love the back and forth and marvel at how nature throws curve balls at even the best here. Learned a lot from you folks.

How quaint, I know.....I often ask people like this if they refuse to believe their own physician when told they have a serious condition that has to be treated......

It's not just some people; wide swaths of society are guilty of it. If the experts here are unsure, then I am certainly not going to buy into anything until more information is obtained. I'd say to be ready for some bad travel weather, but not lose too much sleep over it just yet in my region ( and maybe yours ).

Unlike many people these days, I tend to defer to expertise. You've got credentials, and in legal speak, your expert opinion is given great weight...

That would be a very nice storm for these parts for this time of year. Anyone remember the early Dec 95 storm? Another one that took people by surprise.

Positive or negative is subjective....normally I like snow but a storm this early could end the excellent striped bass season or cause the skippers to decide to close up shop for the season ( at least one announced it today, due to the impending storm and lack of "enough" customers, the idea that their fares have gotten too high escapes these guys, but I digress ) so I'm not real disappointed if it doesn't come to fruition, as I'd like another shot at the fish. But it really isn't up to us in any case. I'll enjoy some snow if it happens, but won't shed a tear if it doesn't.

In 03? There were two storms in a week; one was a 14 inch all snow, the other a week later was a mixed event. Perhaps I have them confused..

Was an inch or two of slush to ice out here; caused a lot of headaches when it froze.

Yes but based on experience a realistic scenario would probably see areas near me getting a few inches ( 1-3, maybe 4 ) and more interior areas getting a lot more. Wound't be a bad start to things really, around these parts.

Yeah that little sliver of Union Co bordering Middlesex is where I took my walk that day, Rahway River Park. It was 1-3. Nice to walk in but I had no idea it was major storm elsewhere. Busy time of year. And didn't pay as much attention then.

Doesn't this seem a more likely scenario historically? This wouldn't surprise me TBH. Hoping for something better though.

So forgettable here I had to look it up. 1-3 inches and more like 1 through most of northern Middlesex County. I do remember taking a walk in it, just for the mood flakes, in sneakers.

Just once I'd like to see a map that didn't show me having one forecast in my front yard and one in my backyard.

That wasn't much out my way; a few inches IIRC.

Not used to seeing you so bullish, gets my attention...

True. But strange things can happen these days. Snow in Oct. Snow in Nov. And we seem to never get great patterns these days. A few inches would be nice. Statistically, December snow bodes well for the rest of the winter. Though i wouldn't bet the house on it....

Took a lot of people by surprise, even ol' Henry Marguisity.

2011, Jan 20 IIRC, but that was a blockbuster pattern in the first half of winter. Got 19 inches over here. seemed small compared to Boxing Day....

14 inches IIRC....missed AC though. Caught us by surprise. It was the biggest that winter, though we had a lot of smaller events that followed.