weatherpruf

No, they often don't. I mean, in big storms, HECS, we do well, but in most marginal situations we don't do well compared to others to our east, west, north, or south. Jan 2011 was one that jackpotted us, but it also did so for large areas, so did Jan 2016. In Feb 2006, we had around 18 inches, but areas two miles from here had 26! In March 2018, areas to my immediate west ( like 5 min down 27 )had 10 inches or more while we had around 4. Like I said, it happens often enough that there has to be some reason for it.

Just went over to sleet here. Guess we'll be back and forth till it warms up.

Nothing. BUt as I traveled into Union C on the Parkway I saw a few inches. But I am in a bit of a snowhole that rarely jackpots, its just the way it is. Many people here don't even believe me, it will be snowing heavy to my west or east or wherever and we'll be getting light snow and struggling to get more than 3 inches. This happens too often to not be some sort of area phenomenon.

Yeah we had nothing in April 97, or maybe a slight dusting; there was one that left a quarter inch that wasn't treated and this destroyed my 1987 Dodge Ram when I slit into a curb. Two wheel drive guzzler that was awful in any kind of snow.

OUr locals are not real bullish on our area, 1-3 seems the possible and most likely scenario, and would be a typical type outcome. But any snow early in Dec is nice to see; could mean an active pattern ahead, despite all the gloom and doom I see in the long term outlooks.

When i was a kid this was not unusual....areas to our west usually got more snow, down through Mercer/ Trenton. This is anecdotal. It's further from the coast so it could happen.On that map I'd be nearly out of any snow at all, just west of SI. After a lull earlier, we are into some freezing rain here, with cars glazed over lightly.

I'm seeing a side of literate bitterness we've not seen before from you.....did you minor in American Lit? Think Twain....ya know, cauliflower is just cabbage with a college degree, thunder is impressive but its lightning that does the damage...

That's a little further than just west...just west would be Linden, Rahway, Elizabeth, Newark....New brunswick is northern CNJ. They often get very different snow totals from me just west of SI. But I generally live in a snow hole, and if it can find a way not to snow much here, it will.

Actually there is no light anymore; fish there quite a bit in summer ( on my friend's boat, and he is rather limited in his fishing ability and insists on running from Edison NJ all the way to the end of Ambrose because reasons....) gets evil in a hurry out there.....

NYC is pretty big: SI will not have the same snows as the Bronx a lot of time. QUeens often gets more if the storm is more east. So "NYC does fine" in what way?

My rule of thumb, Forky, is to buy gas for the snowblower once you start getting interested in a storm....fortunately I bought some during a recent power outage.

Probably dyscalculia. It was rarely diagnosed back in the day; a relatively intelligent person who can't make sense of math. Could be sitting in one class dissecting Moby Dick passages then walk into Algebra and within ten minutes be going WTF? So I rely on people here to interpret the technical stuff. Most do a good job IMO. After all these years I still gotta look up those times ( I know military times from having been a guard in college ).

Ah, this place would be infinitely dull without the basement types. I could read NOAA forecasts if I just want unfiltered, straight up forecasts. They have a pretty good discussion portion for each area; gets right to the point. And they are all experts ( and they are wrong sometimes too; in fact the disrespect for experts in this culture has been called the meteorologist syndrome...). So, lighten up a bit. Be happy some teens in basements are here instead of engaging in less respectable endeavors.

Amateur here, been around since 2010, but I can say these forum discussions all have a pattern; they waffle back and forth, my portion of CNJ is always on the border of any precip, and nothing is locked in until the night before the event starts. And even then, at least in my area, it doesn't usually look like what was forecast ( several storms over the years delivered inches when feet were forecast ) . Even Boxing Day wasn't really fixed until shortly before. Oh, and rain always gets here sooner than forecast. And I have yet to see a significant backend ( as opposed to a storm that flips to snow; those I have seen ). Still, I love the back and forth and marvel at how nature throws curve balls at even the best here. Learned a lot from you folks.

How quaint, I know.....I often ask people like this if they refuse to believe their own physician when told they have a serious condition that has to be treated......

It's not just some people; wide swaths of society are guilty of it. If the experts here are unsure, then I am certainly not going to buy into anything until more information is obtained. I'd say to be ready for some bad travel weather, but not lose too much sleep over it just yet in my region ( and maybe yours ).

Unlike many people these days, I tend to defer to expertise. You've got credentials, and in legal speak, your expert opinion is given great weight...

That would be a very nice storm for these parts for this time of year. Anyone remember the early Dec 95 storm? Another one that took people by surprise.

Positive or negative is subjective....normally I like snow but a storm this early could end the excellent striped bass season or cause the skippers to decide to close up shop for the season ( at least one announced it today, due to the impending storm and lack of "enough" customers, the idea that their fares have gotten too high escapes these guys, but I digress ) so I'm not real disappointed if it doesn't come to fruition, as I'd like another shot at the fish. But it really isn't up to us in any case. I'll enjoy some snow if it happens, but won't shed a tear if it doesn't.

In 03? There were two storms in a week; one was a 14 inch all snow, the other a week later was a mixed event. Perhaps I have them confused..

Was an inch or two of slush to ice out here; caused a lot of headaches when it froze.

Yes but based on experience a realistic scenario would probably see areas near me getting a few inches ( 1-3, maybe 4 ) and more interior areas getting a lot more. Wound't be a bad start to things really, around these parts.

Yeah that little sliver of Union Co bordering Middlesex is where I took my walk that day, Rahway River Park. It was 1-3. Nice to walk in but I had no idea it was major storm elsewhere. Busy time of year. And didn't pay as much attention then.

Doesn't this seem a more likely scenario historically? This wouldn't surprise me TBH. Hoping for something better though.

So forgettable here I had to look it up. 1-3 inches and more like 1 through most of northern Middlesex County. I do remember taking a walk in it, just for the mood flakes, in sneakers.