Allsnow

Icon has .7+ qpf In Monmouth county 

3k looks like euro 

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Might look close to the euro 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Nam will be further north this run

Might look close to the euro 

Nam will be further north this run

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

look what just happened in minneapolis 

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

what happenened?

6-7 inches for a wide area. Originally best was supposed to be south of that area 

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Nice little event (hopefully). Should get me into double digits on the season. 

You’re in a great spot for this one 

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Pete do you mind saying more about what the Euro shows after?

Rain

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Yep just like when it was alone on Monday 

My guess is it goes south at 18z on Friday 

Euro is nice but it being alone gives me lots of caution flags 

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I dont know. These events that favor the mid Atlantic often screw us. Usually the nam is too far north though like the early Jan 22 storm that missed us 

Yup. Past few years we haven’t had the last minute north shifts with these clippers. 

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like an issue with dry air drain coming down the Hudson/CT River with the cold air. Sometimes we get skunked from the city east with that in minor events. 

Short range models really picking up on that now. This is probably nothing more then a dusting for the metro 

We done after Saturday 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Some don’t wanna hear the end is near

Did it even start? Strong Nina next winter might be worst 

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s not about setting anyone straight. Not sure why I keep getting quoted multiple times when I am not in that thread. But I have looked at the responses and statements and have some replies. First, we have never had 9 consecutive winters this warm in the Northeast before. One of the dominant themes is that the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool has lead to more forcing from MJO 4-7 which had been written up in numerous studies. Forcing in this region is warm for the Northeast. So it makes perfect sense that it has been this warm in our region over the last 9 winters.  I never said that we couldn’t eventually see another colder than average winter in the Northeast. Just that as long as this WPAC warm pool remains so prominent, it will probably load the dice for more warmer than colder winters over time. I am not sure what could shift this but would be open to a change if some new region of tropical forcing can emerge.

The reduction in the snowfall has occurred a little later beginning with the 18-19 season. It has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 winters with below normal snowfall in NYC. It seems to be a combo of warmer than normal winters and the more hostile Pacific patterns. The epic 2010-2018 snowfall period carried over into the beginning of the warm winter period that started in December 15 with the historic +13.3 departure. My guess is that the 2010s will stand as our snowiest recent decade. When the 2020s are complete , we are on track for a significantly lower snowfall period vs the 2010s even if snowfall can improve next several seasons. But this doesn’t mean that we can’t have some great snowfall seasons in the mix like 20-21 along the way. Snowfall has been more variable while winters have been steadily warming over the years.

Second, the warm blob in the NEPAC from 13-14 to 14-15 was the result of tropical forcing and not the direct cause of the pattern. This pattern quickly shifted after 2 years during the winters but became prominent in the warm season. It was a direct result of the tropical driven Rossby wave pattern. The record PAC NW heatwave a few summers ago and numerous Western drought seasons with the powerful Western Ridge were part of this pattern. An interesting question for study is why the seasonal shift occurred after the 13-14 and 14-15 winters?

Feel free to quote this post if you like.

 

 

Awesome post! Thank you 

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s not about setting anyone straight. Not sure why I keep getting quoted multiple times when I am not in that thread. But I have looked at the responses and statements and have some replies. First, we have never had 9 consecutive winters this warm in the Northeast before. One of the dominant themes is that the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool has lead to more forcing from MJO 4-7 which had been written up in numerous studies. Forcing in this region is warm for the Northeast. So it makes perfect sense that it has been this warm in our region over the last 9 winters.  I never said that we couldn’t eventually see another colder than average winter in the Northeast. Just that as long as this WPAC warm pool remains so prominent, it will probably load the dice for more warmer than colder winters over time. I am not sure what could shift this but would be open to a change if some new region of tropical forcing can emerge.

The reduction in the snowfall has occurred a little later beginning with the 18-19 season. It has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 winters with below normal snowfall in NYC. It seems to be a combo of warmer than normal winters and the more hostile Pacific patterns. Seems like the epic 2010-2018 snowfall period carried over into the beginning of the warm winter period that started in December 15 with the historic +13.3 departure. My guess is that the 2010s will stand as our snowiest decade and when the 2020s are complete will see a significantly lower snowfall period vs the 2010s. But this doesn’t mean that we can t have some great snowfall seasons in the mix like 20-21 along the way. Snowfall has been more variable while winters have been steadily warming over the years.

Second, the warm blob in the NEPAC from 13-14 to 14-15 was the result of tropical forcing and not the direct cause of the pattern. This pattern quickly shifted after 2 years during the winters but became prominent in the warm season. It was a direct result of the tropical driven Rossby wave pattern. The record PAC NW heatwave a few summers ago and numerous Western drought seasons with the powerful Western Ridge were part of this pattern. An interesting question for study is why the seasonal shift occurred after the 13-14 and 14-15 winters?

Feel free to quote this post if you like.

 

 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

MJO is the latest fad to explain a small sample size of outcomes IMHO. We’ve seen it for decades now. 
 

- Late 1990s literature blamed the big reversal of NAO/AO to predominately positive phases on CC

-early 2010s literature blamed the big flip back to -AO/NAO on CC via melting sea ice

- mid-2010s literature blamed the western drought and cold eastern winters in the pacific warm blob due to CC

 

I remember being called a climate denier for being skeptical of the sea ice theory circa 2012 or so. It’s hard to have rational discussions about these attribution studies with people who don’t really care about rigor. 
 

MJO is popular right now because “it makes sense” in explaining a small sample of shit winters in the east. To your point, maybe the MJO stuff is true in a vacuum but people are over-attributing the MJO to our own weather. 
 

What is going to be the next explanation when we get a couple of cold-loses winters in a row?

@bluewave reasoning 

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

IMO ORH_wxman and Forky two of the best posters. 

@bluewave needs to set the Sne forum straight 

3k coming north 

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM coming in well north, this is gonna be a nice run. 

@snowman19

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree. Enjoy whatever we get for Saturday, which my guess is probably a plowable event (maybe something like 3-5 inches?). The final few days of this month and early March looks ugly

It feels odd to read posts from you that are pro snow haha. Either way, I hope you’re correct about the 3-5

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What a winter for Anchorage. One of their coldest/snowiest on record then they roll in with a daily record high yesterday. They must be jumping for joy...unless they like the cold. 

It’s the only place currently that can sustain winter weather with the unfavorable MJO phases.

@forkyfork and @bluewave are correct, the unfavorable mjo phases are here to stay. Winters will be more like the past few years then the snowy early 2000’s 

Getting the feeling we are just about done with snowfall around the area after Saturday 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Unfortunately icon is usually too far north so I wouldn't use it. I like seeing the rgem so robust

I thought the icon did well with yesterday’s event. It never bought into a nyc jackpot 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

That would be disgusting 

MJO 5/6 is a torch for morch