Allsnow

44 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Now of course it will be right

Yup. Just in time to delay nice weather and ext the miserable weather 

Pain

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's lovely

 

What’s lovely about it? 

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully the models are correct and we can sneak in another 70° day next week after all the rain through the coming weekend. 
 

A week away? Ugh. This rain is miserable and killing another 60 degree day. 

Brutal 

This winter was 97/98 in the warmer climate 

Beautiful day! Gorgeous. Get out and enjoy it everyone 

Weather looks awful after today. Rain chances every other day 

It was pretty wicked for a period between 9pm-11pm last night. 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a warm pattern on the EPS and GEFS thru week 3. Good Lord 

First mows by the end of Morch? 

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That can wait 

Be happy you broke 10 inches this season. It could have been a lot worst for your area. 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I rather have snow and cold. Brrr.

Time to move on Anthony….

Enjoy the baseball season. 

Beautiful outside! Let’s keep this around 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I noticed that the MJO 5-6 was much stronger in the Octobers ahead of our snowiest La Ninas since 2010. But two of our three snowiest La Niña winters were still warmer than average like the ones with the weaker October MJO 5-6 and less snowy winters. So not sure why this has worked out for us just since 2010. The 10-11 and 11-12 multiyear La Niña was snowier in 10-11. Then the 16-17 and 17-18 event was snowier in 17-18. This was followed by 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 which was snowiest in 20-21. It was almost like 20-21 was a weaker and warmer reflection of the stronger -AO and snowy 10-11. 16-17 was less snowy and much warmer than 17-18. But still found a way to produce above average snow. February 2018 was the most extreme daily winter warmth record we ever saw when we hit 80° for the first time. Even if the winter into spring was so snowy.

 

Thanks. Hopefully some hope for next winter. Great insight 

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Under 15” seasons in NYC before 1990 were usually the result of drier conditions or hostile storm tracks. These days it’s warmer conditions of 38.0° to 41.5° and hostile storm tracks which result in under 15” seasons. Having those two features working in tandem will eventually produce more frequent under 15” seasons. But we will still have opportunities for snowier seasons from time to time like 20-21.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	DJF Average Temperature
1	2023-04-30	2.3	41.0°
2	1973-04-30	2.8	35.5°
3	2002-04-30	3.5	41.5°
4	1919-04-30	3.8	36.6°
5	2020-04-30	4.8	39.2°
6	1901-04-30	5.1	31.7°
7	1932-04-30	5.3	40.1°
8	1998-04-30	5.5	39.6°
9	2012-04-30	7.4	40.5°
10	2024-04-30	7.5	40.3°
11	1989-04-30	8.1	35.9°
-	1878-04-30	8.1	33.2°
12	1951-04-30	9.3	36.1°
13	1997-04-30	10.0	37.8°
14	1942-04-30	11.3	32.9°
15	1955-04-30	11.5	33.9°
16	1931-04-30	11.6	33.7°
17	1995-04-30	11.8	37.1°
18	2008-04-30	11.9	36.4°
19	1872-04-30	12.1	29.5°
20	2007-04-30	12.4	36.5°
21	1992-04-30	12.6	37.2°
22	1999-04-30	12.7	38.6°
23	1980-04-30	12.8	35.4°
24	1986-04-30	13.0	33.4°
-	1959-04-30	13.0	30.8°
25	1975-04-30	13.1	37.5°
26	1990-04-30	13.4	35.7°
27	1930-04-30	13.6	35.4°
-	1900-04-30	13.6	33.6°
28	1929-04-30	13.8	34.7°
29	1950-04-30	14.0	37.6°

 

What made 20-21 so snowy? I remember you said something about the mjo in October being a precursor for that January…

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One thing I have learned to watch for is that bathtub off of Japan during outlook season. I have been doing this a decade, but still have so much to learn....really starting to expand my scope on a gloabl level when seeking out indicators.

I don’t issue seasonal forecasts but I admire the hours of work you put into it every season. Look forward to reading your thoughts this fall. Hopefully, a Nina like 20-21 haha 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sold on strong yet...it could be moderate. ..but with a very active tropical season I think the floor next year is maybe like 1998-1999, which is still a bit better than this year for most.

Funny, you would think I had a great forecast by just eyballing the forecast H5 composite vs reality, but it just didn't translate.

December ended up being a lot worst than everyone thought. You really couldn’t predict that bad of a nightmare from months in advance. January ended up flipping the script but the pac jet ext killed the party. Lately, the jet ext kill any type of winter in the lower 48. It takes weeks to recover now just to have a chance. 

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am reluctant to gve credit to folks who don't publish a seasonal effort, but I read enough from you and Bluewave to know that you asbolutey nailed the impact of that west PAC warm pool this year. Nice recognition of that. I will also credit snowman for the super El Nino call that eeked out, but I do not agee with him that this season was warm due to El Nino.

Thanks. I thought you did a great job with predicting the very short window of winter this month. My guess was we would get into March with a favorable look but it went to hell fast. 
 

Don’t think much changes next winter outside NNE with the strong Nina. It’s just going to enhance convection where we don’t want it. The Midwest will probably have a huge winter 

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mid March onward looks colder. Maybe some snow.

We done! Time for 9 months of humidity and warmth 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually a nice aftn. Did a bunch of yard stuff today.

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I wonder how short next winter will be. Might end after December if we get Nina. 

Would be nice to get a Nina to actually give us cold/snow in December. 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially after next year we are going to enter into a stretch of a few years that will not feature much high latitude blocking at all IMO, so the extra tropical Pacific needs to improve.

NNE should Be fine next winter with the Nina. It obviously can’t get any worst than this winter for that area. 
 

We are probably cooked down here if the PAC doesn’t improve 

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Seems like your NJ locale is in the north part.  I saw some FB pics a couple days back from where I grew up in northern Morris County, and the snow cover looked about like that 3".  Also, the lake where I usually fished was wide open.  I don't think the red ball flag (denoting safe ice) was ever flown this year.

We may have a 20° AN day by mid week.  Wednesday's average here is 32/9 and 48/35 is a possibility.

We had 2+ of snow cover here in Middlesex County the last 10 days.