wdrag
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I looked at the 00z/17 weeklies and imo, I think we're good for snow opportunities til about Valentines Day when the entire region in NAM north of 60N becomes cold with a dominant vortex up there (cold anomalies), where I don't think we want. So, I think this means, 2-4 more weeks of snow opportunities. Not threading Thursday morning (20th) tonight, since the 18z EC doesn't have anything going on. I am thinking the 00z/18 EC will drift over and that we'll get more consensus with this strong cold front bringing a 1-3" snowfall during rush hour with temps falling to freezing, for a significant portion of our subforum but I can't commit at this time since too many models say NO-it won't happen. Just have to sit on it til maybe there is more favorable modeling. Back in the morning.
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Also added wrap up event data through 7AM Monday the 17th. NYC CP 0.8", PHL 0.7" snowfall. More data is appended. Click to enable more clarity and use the legend to your advantage. Thanks.
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I've looked at this through the 18z/17 cycle.: I think some snow is coming for us in this 4day window but no certitude. The GEFS/GFS is very dry for us in this 4a day window as opposed to the EPS which has a nice 850 MB Low and snowstorm from near ATL through the East Coast to New England. Let's keep monitoring. There two short waves. The first is the coastal low snow event 21/22, the second around the 24th (cold front and wave of low pressure?) should drop a substantial cold shot behind it. More tomorrow morning.
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Glad there is backside snowfall. Not adding anything to snowfall. However, appended the rain and snow totals in the core of our area through about 7A<, as well as glance the tidal trace at Sandy Hook to show how the wind quit - shift to south just before dawn abruptly dropped the risk of serious coastal flooding to the Sandy Hook area. I may be wrong but I didn't hear of any reality moderate coastal flooding. I do see minor NNJ coast into w LI as using BDR and SHK tide gauge info. Also appended the NOHRSC snowfall analysis through 7AM.
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I think there is documentation that near 70 MPH occurred on e LI and 60-65 MPH apparently occurred near the ridges of NYS/CT/MA border.
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Monitoring Thursday for a 1-3" thread LI/NYC but no action at this time. There NAM has to start backing off. If it continues the 12z/17 cycle for the 06z/18..I'll start the thread. I have more confidence in Thursday being a hit than Fri-Sat which I'm pretty sure will happen along the East Coast, but not sure if it strikes here or mid-Atlantic states southward. At least 12z/17 OP EC Run was north of 00z. Have not looked at everything and won't have til about 8 tonight.
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I think anyone with more than. 3 inches on the ground now has a good chance of seeing an inch or more on the ground thru Ground Hog Day. Just need a new storm for I-95. Going to be easier now to drill 4 degrees down to NYC some time. Next week.
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By the way: Not sure anyone has noticed, and I stand corrected, but no coastal flooding NJ Coast to sw side of LI as far as i can tell. Wind shifted and lessened prior to high tide and not enough duration of gale force winds. We are at high tide now... there could be some pockets of minor in there but overall at the standard tide stations used prior to 2018, no flooding as far as i can tell. Max wind at airports that I saw was ~57MPH at JFK - 250AM, with many reports in the of gusts in the 50-58 MPH range for LI. I se the Blue wave report above and I did not check marine platforms. Back midday with CoCoRaHs assessment of snowfall and qpf.
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By the way: Not sure anyone has noticed, and I stand corrected, but no coastal flooding NJ Coast to sw side of LI as far as i can tell. Wind shifted and lessened prior to high tide and not enough duration of gale force winds. We are at high tide now... there could be some pockets of minor in there but overall at the standard tide stations used prior to 2018, no flooding as far as i can tell. Max wind I saw was ~57MPH at JFK - 250AM, with many reports in the of gusts in the 50-58 MPH range for LI.
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Will look at this in the evening. No time for next 4 hours cleaning up this the heavy load here. Thanks for the tip. I was just below zero at this time yesterday but NYC 10F. Nice pattern. Hope it can deliver something nice for NYC beyond 1-2 hours. Walt
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I won't post the ensembles...but it seems they are gravitating to an event from ATL to our area 21st-22nd via the 00z/17 cycle. Meanwhile WPC ensembles backed off to 10-20% prob, but that is prior to the 00z/17 ensemble cycle. LOTS of uncertainty. Won't post on this again til this Monday evening, especially with ongoing storminess.
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Past 3 hours of data: Wind gusts: KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [50kt, 26m/s] stations reporting wind gusts 40-49kt KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KGED: Georgetown, Sussex County Airport, DE, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KGVL: Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KLVM: Livingston, Mission Field Airport, MT, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KMIV: Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KMUI: Muir/Indiantown, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KMWN: Mount Washington, NH, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KNEL: Lakehurst, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KNHK: Patuxent River, Naval Air Stn, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KORF: Norfolk, Norfolk Intl Arpt, VA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KOXB: Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPDK: Atlanta, De Kalb-Peachtree Airport, GA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPHF: Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Arpt, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KSBY: Salisbury, MD, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KTGI: Tangier Island, VA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KTHV: York, York Airport, PA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KTNB: Boone, Watauga County Hospital Heliport, NC, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KWAL: Wallops Island, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KWWD: Wildwood, NJ, United States [49kt, 25m/s]
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Seaside Heights a peak easterly wind gust of 54 Knots at 1206AM. Source: Courtesy Weather Flow.
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Wantage NJ (this part) about 8 s of High Point. 4.8" of snow as of 120A with snow-sleet mix. 26F.
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Probably my last report til about mid or 1A. Many reports wind gusts around 50MPH vicinity Norfolk VA.
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NYC CP OBS 3/4S- and .02 since 7P and 31F, WB about 30. Wonder if they'll measure snow for NYC when there ob changes to rain??
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On Wind: 18z EC makes a run at the s Coast of Li but I think OKX has it right on big wind e LI. I could be wrong but am respecting raw guidance. I have nothing in arsenal to improve on that.
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I think pressure fall center near the sfc low will keep winds light ne thru midnight up here (iassalobaric gradient) and am not convinced we scour out aa above 32F prior to 4AM. Also HRDPS, HRRR and ECMWF are pounding snow up here in northern Sussex County northward Mid-3A. Amounts are probably too high in mxd precip but what I think is occuring is a fast occlusion with the upper low casting across our area 12z Monday ONLY briefly allowing 4 hour intrusion of warm air before its cold enough to snow again as the upper low shoots newd overhead. Poconos-catskills, Litchfield Hills may only see 3 hours of mxd precip at most. 18z EC amounts probably have a high mix bias but they are near a foot Poconos newd. I'll take a stab at more like 10" for reality KMPO northeastward.
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You will hang on. I cant see it a move freezing there prior to 2 or 3A.
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HRDPS impressive I80 north. watch it if Thunder snow gets going up here along the NYS-PA border. I like its colder scenario but I'll defer to the fact that I may in error. Am expecting snow thru midnight in Sussex County NJ and possibly back and forth mix rain/snow to S+ between 1A-3A.
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Wantage Nj SB about 630PM. 19.2/10.4 Going to take some nasty advection to get us to 32 by 2AM. Has to have some 1"/hr up here by 11P or mid.
