wdrag

My perception of what is coming prior to March 3. After that, a very good looking pattern to start March. Plenty to deal with til March 3. I'll be interested in the weeklies IF any stratwarm concept, that updates to us late today. 10PM tonight-7AM Friday NC to I90 in MA-NYS: Damaging wind and I think a fair amount of power outages. Some of these power outages may last a day or so. Areal coverage will vary but I think PA-MD-NJ-Long Island-RI-E MA are targeted the most extensive. Minimum gust sometime late tonight around 45 MPH with maximum gusts 60-70 MPH ridges, and parts of the I95 corridor including especially Long Island Eastern MA. Be prepared late tonight with phone cells charged, cars sheltered and how to handle if no heat tomorrow. Worst of the wind should occur between Midnight and 5AM Friday for most of our members. Much colder Friday afternoon--probably 30 degrees colder compared to the very warm readings of this afternoon into the overnight. Saturday: I84 corridor: a line of briefly heavy snow showers lasts less than hour with hilly terrain Trace to 1/2" and possibly suddenly slippery conditions. Valley roads should be mainly wet despite the brief snow shower. Friday February 25: Raleigh NC to the I84 corridor. Unknown regarding the southward extent if any ice (Raleigh-Richmond-Baltimore) so that could still be a miss, but I think PA-NJ northward through the I84 corridor to Boston will need to monitor forecasts for possible travel delays in ice-snow. For now I84 from the Poconos-easton PA through nw NJ, N CT-most of MA are favored for a winter storm with areas just south from NYC-PHL unknown if anything more than a couple hours of ice-snow? March 1-2: Another extensive wintry event possible for the I84 corridor northward. Have a day... will send my max wind gust tomorrow morning provided internet is up.

Continues to look interesting by March 1 and after per 00z/15 ensembles. GEFS is even tossing a snow event out there in the ensembles from the VA's northeastward around March 1-2. Also sensing more and more that this coming warmth is about 2 days at a time, Wed-Thu night and next Wednesday ish. Noting all ensembles are chilling 850MB to near normal by 25th-26th when the door opens for ice or snow possibilities involved with the precip events. Expecting spotty wind damage Thu night in parts of our area....mixed down with showers.

Think it's time for a March thread, whomever wants to start it. I agree with all others on here: no snow here til about March 1. EPS 14th version is trending cooler as periodic ridging embraces AK and the W coast, which means as Bluewave and one other very recently said, gradient action and I think a good chance much closer to normal than what we will experience 1/21-28 (the torch everyone was talking about 1-2 weeks ago). I'm in the camp for hope and my own expectation of one or two decent large scale northeast USA snow-ice storm events the first 2-3 weeks of March. That based on both ensembles beyond 300 hours trending a more favorable pattern for dumping high pressure and cooler air into the northern USA (ridging w coast into w Canada or AK. I do want to point out large changes in the EPS weeklies and prefer not to put much stock in them beyond 2 weeks at most. That means the low chance stratwarm in March while on the table (only for own inexperienced self) is not what I base my hopes upon. Take a look at the 850 MB 5 day average temps in the sample ending Feb 28, and March 7th. Click on the graphics for greater clarity. The first of each pair is from the 14th, the second from the 10th. Even next week, it looks like the big positive 850MB anomaly will be centered over the Virginias instead of the upper Midwest. Maybe that will trend even faster to the southeast? Just gives me pause to look much beyond 11-14 days. So I have hope that we're trending more favorably for a last gasp attempt at spreading near normal snowfall for other parts of our area. Boston and ACY well above normal, BDL and nw NJ well below, NYC keeping pace just under normal.

ditto drifting snow here in nw NJ from exposed ridges (farms).

Agreed... Our time is coming even despite my own expectations of zero new snowfall here prior to March 1. First 2-3 weeks of March look pretty good for an opportunity or two for 6+. That's hope. I'll accept that.

NYC metro seasonal and our's up here in this part of extreme nw NJ about the same. Not much room for complaint NYC metro. This part of Wantage NJ seasonal 17.5 (3.1 yesterday).

One other note: while this mornings snow was separated from the coastal low, that won't be the case later this afternoon-tonight when the precip shields join forces. Could be quite a nice event, esp e LI, e CT-e MA with an 850 mb low developing near the Ma coast. This morning in my opinion was primarily FGEN related which is why it was fluffy-better dendrite growth in colder mid levels.

A few notes: My driveway 3", except parts are melted (no treatment) 26F. As I see it: snowfall as measured officially is invaluable but dependent on temps regarding impact. I'm 27F and melting on driveway is slowly increasing and have not yet cleared. This morning prior to solar, sticks to all untreated at at or below 33F, but at varying degrees of melt dependent on ground temp and rate of fall. After 9A: going to be tough to accumulate where cleared at temps 28F or greater, except when vsby below 1Mi. Weather Advisories need impact segmented to solar insolation at temps above 27F. People need to get to work and businesses need to continue viable. So methodology can be developed to limit impacts. As it is, the NWS WSSI has it...MINIMAL impact to travel. The usual wet roads, spray and vsby limitations requiring even greater defensive driving vigilance. I did see some comments about cleaning the new snow covered cars so their technologies are not blinded by snow accretion to the sensors. That's a very very good point. Plus it's illegal in NJ to ride with snow on the car roof. Where this snow board accumulation gets tricky is trees/wires at 30-33F where if 6" can occur, braches-wires start breaking. So the Advisory is a bit of perception on impact, though board criteria are the driver. Watch what happens today, vs this eve-tonight. At sundown, could have impressive icing if snow showers occur here and there in our subforum as I expect with further 1/2" big flake deposits in 30-60 minutes. (no solar and it's chilling without solar). Can discuss more on NJWO zoom March 10 7PM at which time can demo use of tools...unsure if you can get on but that will happen. I am putting in a request. Regarding modeling yesterday: I know the NAM and HRRR had this, as the RGEM/GGEM to a lesser extent. The NAM had run to run problems and so you had to switch off to what made sense but there was little question that 700 MB FGEN and banding were a potential problem. The Global models missed the northward extent. Op GFS has a cold south bias again and again and again. EC not much better but somewhat. Attached 12z/12 .. 48 hour Kuchera snowfall guidance for a look. I think the Kuchera smoothing is limited on some of this modeling but the idea is there. Blend of Models EC GFS RGEM NAM

Many reasons to move here... Sparta NJ- Just heard from Nick Stefano. 3.8" there.

Wantage NJ (southern part): Solid 3" on the ground. Light snow in progress. nice sized flakes. clinging to all trees etc Roads are plowed. 26/25 at 638AM This matches Vernon area report as well whee they are larger amount. I think we're done accumulating here around 9 or 10A (anything but a couple more tenths), but tonight may be different as I think a band of snow showers occurs with temps dropping to 10F up here by morning.

Wantage Nj (this southern part) 2.4", with 1.5" past hr. OB 455A/13. First measurable snow since 1/28.

Wantage NJ (this southern part) about 8mi s of High Point) 355AM 0.9" and moderate snow. Snow began around 215A. 27/25 light north wind.

I'm ok on accumulations before 9A but after that, if vsby is not 1 mi or less, my experience says we melt alot of this as snow will have been cleared by then. It's the higher snowfall rates during the daylight that is the slush developer at 28F. Also, we clear our boards every 6 hrs. So I'm presuming snow begins up here around 130A in nw NJ. Board clears around 830A-9A... might be a somewhat slower melting accumulate thereafter up here, even at 25F. Saw model temps at Noon just barely 29F-31F I95. If its snowing 1/2" hr then impact. Otherwise to me impact is vsby - spray and defensive driving. To me the high percentage of low daily traffic problems on Sunday are the hills of nw NJ/se NYS into hilly CT where it will be colder (barring an unlikely but still small chance of general 5" snowfall Philly to NYC). NAM Banding favors something like ABE-IJD axis. It's only a single member model so it could slip south in reality. Blend the models. I think the first hour or two around 09z in Sussex County NJ will be 1/2-1"/hr. Also still pretty warm as this is written 40 at 757Pm here so I95 has to lose snow to melting at 5AM unless it too goes 1/2-1"hr to start at that time. Of additional interest to me is the lift in the dendritic growth zone that slips to about 5000-6000 ft at sunrise Monday. Moisture is lacking but might be interesting sizable snowflakes in scattered snow showers with the primary trough crossing the region for the Monday morning commute. The upshot: it snows, it accumulates with snowfall rates and surface temps governing accums on snow boards, pavements. Let's check pavements at air temps 29F and greater 1mi vsby after 9A for accums. We probably need to factor temps and solar insolation impact on roads at various times of daylight to assist impact products. Enjoy what does occur. 758P/12

You all have it... small chance 4" somewhere in I95 axis, BUT... snow melts on contact during periods of lighter snowfall (1 mile or more) during the daylight hours 10A-4P even if temps upper 20s. I work in it here in Sussex County NJ and watch this happen frequently. So that will impact snow totals NYC CP and of course roads generally wet so i suspect no advisory situation. More of an SPS for any bands of 1/2Mile moderate which might happen and of course untreated's snow-covered prior to 9A. You may have noticed that this may start briefly as an hour of rain I95 midnight-3A (RGEM) E LI might be interesting but temps mostly lower 30s there so I guess there will be alot of compacting-melting to minimize possible snow depth. I expect 1-3" Sussex County NJ, most of it by 9A Sunday.

Yep it does look pretty warm to end Feb/begin March. Still can get wet snow/ice surprises embedded but it won't last long. Concerned about vast snowpack degradation Tug Hill late this coming week and beyond. Presume everyone is onto the potential 50-60 MPH wind event here late Thursday or Friday the 18th.

FGEN generated... take a look at 700MB FGEN on trop tidbits. Also 18z HRRR is looking decent. Blend all the same cycle models for qpf and snowfall and cross your fingers.

What's the ramifications of this change at 10MB in the arctic over the next month. (the bottom is mid March). Seems to be a consistent EPS message. Any utility?

It will snow everywhere (80% chance in my opinion), maybe preceded by a little rain at 2AM Sunday on I95? Probably melt after 9AM on all road surfaces. NWS Blend of models 1/2-2" for our subforum as of 5A today. Sharpening trough..still bears monitoring for periods of snow into early Monday LI-NJ coast. RGEM/NAM/HRRR operational models to monitor for trends down or up. Chance of snowfall above 2" is only 40% at most as of the 4AM NWS ensembles. Still a worthy monitor for winters goodness.

CMC has a period of snow (T-2") along the front Sunday for us. I start there... CMC has something. Sharpening either this trough or the follower on the 15th and suddenly you have some sort of larger coastal event. I am counting on an inch or 2 of snow Sunday here in nw Nj and I think NYC as well, or Mon-Tue, but preferably Sunday. Weenie me when it's no go on Saturday if and when this is a complete miss. Enjoying these pretty big highs continually showing out of w Canada. When that out there is constantly low pressure, then i know we're consistently torched. I am resisting the persistent unseasonable warmth here until the GEFS goes bye-bye on the W NAM ridge.

What's the status on arctic stratwarm March 1-14??? From what I could tell in 00z/7 weeklies, still there? Bluewave others? I'll check back tonight.

A couple of notes: Bluewave correct.. ridge west coast breaks down far too quick... and has been for a long-long time. I find the EPS depressing but I don't think it's doing too well long range and my confidence in the GEFS maintaining 1045MB highs sliding southeast from northwest Canada is above average into the 24th, which makes it a battleground ball game through at least the 24th out here in our NYC subforum. Of course FEB will be a little warmer than normal overall with a couple of very warm days but regarding nada winter opportunities for 3"+ snow into the last week of the month: I doubt that. You may have noticed the 06z/8 GEFS made a rather healthy increase in modeled snowfall VA northeastward to BOS. There at the least should be a period of snow or ice BOS-RDU-AVL Sunday-early Monday for much of this area. Maybe a snowstorm for a part of this region. Too early to say where in particular but worthy of interest.

Wantage NJ 23F with fine snow in progress since at least 530AM (not seen on radar = low top)

This wintry precip is developing very rapidly now in s NJ-DE (WWD-DOV). Think it taking lots of folks unaware. I don't see anything on mPing. Wow... 00z/7 HRRR is on it, even the I95 stuff Mon night... LWX has an SPS for BWI.

As i see it...and at home now. There to me seems to be need for an SPS out now... not an HWO that no one sees except us weenies (speaking for myself) and EM's. There should be slippery problems prior to sunrise through much of NJ or a slight snow accumulation by 7 or 8AM. It's not my call but I am prepared for delays. Moist of NJ now subfreezing. BL does not warm much on the ne Wind. I see snow/or ice for NYC-PHI by 7AM... the salt yes, leftovers may help but they will need new sand salt application or something for at the least the bridges/overpasses. That's only my own off duty opinion, I presume the Interstates - heavily traveled routes will be just wet, but not the driveways in the early part of the rush hour. 18z/6 NBM has widespread .01 ice I95 corridor by 18z PHI-NYC and only T to 0.2" snow which i think is a little conservative. Also regarding salt: If it's long lasting, then we wouldn't need to reapply storm after storm (excluding the rain washouts). Tomorrow morning we'll know whether it was worthwhile preparing for just wet, or icy slight snow covered stretches. Have your mPing ready to go and I think enjoy a little more winter. This developing system may end up with more ice and snow late in the day or evening just northwest of I95 in NJ/se NYS/CT. We'll see.

Guess it’s coming. Snow and ice. If it starts at 5a there will be some problems on some roads. I think salt impact from Prior event maybe waning. Am pretty sure DPW and MPING will be busy at sunrise.