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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Am on the road but prefer organized as one thread. Thats been the thread all along. Snowing east of PHL. Probably won’t last long
  2. wdrag
    Prefer ones here so we can keep this storm as I package
  3. wdrag
    HRRR has no acc NYC. Most models and BOM less than 1/2" if anything NYC. We'll soon know. Model warm nose is minor early and can be overcome by 1-2 hours of Strong UVV in the dendrite zone, if that thump occurs this far northeast of the low. I am sure we'll see lots of sleet/snow reports on here by 430PM.
  4. wdrag
    Yes...obs here... coming soon. already sleeting Baltimore area. I think snow issuing to break out mid morning PA.
  5. wdrag
    Regarding Tue-Wed; No changes. Right now ensemble guidance is projecting about 8 river forecast points from Philly to ne NJ moderate flood, and 3 potentially major. Additionally if 3.5" qpf occurs by 00z/11, and we add another inch around the 13th (ensemble total 4.5)... The Passaic at Pine Brook would probably be at a minimum in moderate flood 10th-15th. All this predicted on how much rain. Ensembles predictions of river response for NJ is pretty good. That same guidance is giving a bunch of streams in CT minor flood.
  6. wdrag
    No plans for a 13th snow event post, though it looks like I84 corridor can do decent, but not the city. 715A/6
  7. wdrag
    Too close to sure for me.
  8. wdrag
    NYC will probably preserve the record... 1/4-2" doesn't mean NYC will get 2". I definitely think some sort of measurable slop has to occur there but whether the observers catch it as intended in the snow measuring guidance... within their primary shift duties? Have no clue.
  9. wdrag
    An announcement for those who use banding pages provided by the grace of FSU-Bob Hart. Now fixed. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/
  10. wdrag
    I myself will continue commenting on this event in this original NY eve, two storm thread for consistency as the two storms = feed each other the results by Jan 10. It will also demonstrate how effective (or not) use of consensus modeling (ensemble blends) can be for preparation purposes out to 10-days in advance and how CPC hazard tools are probably underutilized.
  11. wdrag
    Just a note: This thread will serve as the obs thread for this afternoon-Sunday obs and also continue comments on the Tuesday-Wednesday event. A new OBS thread for Tuesday-Wednesday will issue 7A Tuesday. fwiw--- I think NYC-LI is going to see some wet sloppy slushy snow acc on cars/grass 4P-10P and whether it is observed at CP I'm not sure but I expect 1/4-2" because of bursts of moderate snowfall 1/2MI vsby. That despite temps above freezing, which I think will have to cool to 33 in snow after sunset. Too much modeling is showing snow NYC...but temps will determine whether we can measure there. Am noting dewpoints not very far from freezing through this entire event for NYC north. So--I may be very wrong but it's not worth the risk of a nil call being wrong for travelers.
  12. wdrag
    I myself will continue commenting on this event in the original NY eve, two storm thread for consistency as the two storms = feed each other the results by Jan 10. It will also demonstrate how effective (or not) use of consensus modeling (ensemble blends) can be for preparation purposes out to 10-days in advance and how CPC hazard tools are probably underutilized. Others may post here but I will post in the original thread with only a new obs thread for that storm issued at 7AM this coming Tuesday when we've exhausted model discussion.
  13. wdrag
    fwiw... 4PM NWS collaborated snow forecasting experimental impact. For me, looks half an inch or so conservative I95 where I think an inch will fall but melt quite bit on initial contact 2-4PM. AFTER the initial thump goes by around 9P, it warms aloft for a few hours. Matter of temp during snow. If 33 CP Will get some whitening on the snow board. NBM and most models pretty conservative so that's the prevailing forecast. None of em are easy.
  14. wdrag
    fwiw.... T sections for NYC (LGA) when large dendritic growth shortly after onset arrives NYC on the GFS and 3K NAM. Temp lowest 25 MB in question and if its snowing...wont be more than 33-34 at 7PM Sat evening. 00z/7 CP ob may have some snow acc? Anyway, this is another way to look at a specific location vertical profile. On sample. Can do moisture, R#, wind profiles etc.
  15. wdrag
    agreed... RGEM NAM HRRR cyclic repeatable trends may be helpful. 06z/5 HRDPS is too heavy but its colder.
  16. wdrag
    Elizabeth warehouse fire right now ... on TEWR radar...particulate matter blowoff. 1/5/24 628AM post
  17. wdrag
    NWS 4AM snowfall forecast and resultant impact expectations if and when many of these forecasts verify Saturday night-Sunday. As you know I';ve become a fan of the base amount forecast to limit expectations, worst case double
  18. wdrag
    reality-- lets see what happens. I'm still with it as attempted to predict via these posts last eve.
  19. wdrag
    Yes... this combo event - I can't rank it historically but no doubt the runoff next Wednesday should have rocket rises of small streams with slower rises of large rivers I95 corridor NJ/PA. My concern if sump pump and power outages..then what. Detours and I think some evacuations in vulnerable flood zones may be necessary but we need to see how this plays closer to Tuesday. All I know, preparations as best as possible next few days which means cleaning storm drains today or Monday-Tues morning and just making it easier to mitigate what is coming in a 9 hour dump of 2-3" of rain, compounded in NJ by snowmelt.
  20. wdrag
    It will almost definitely start as snow or r/s mix, but pavement probably won't accumulate... and over to all rain by 11PM but back to r/s mix Sunday morning. Again... no one expected big snow I95 east but take what we can get. Am sure lots of reports will be coming in around 4-5PM Sat.
  21. wdrag
    am done for the night... flushing it for now.
  22. wdrag
    the 18z NAM looked off... something not right about it. It's companion 3KM looked better. Your stats seem to me to indicate 1" categorical NYC (not 100%). I have great respect for Cliff Mass (NBM) as I do for Lance. In the case of of the NBM, its at 0.6" as I interpret. That is splitting hairs. 1 hr dump at 33F and measuring at 05z could make it 1.5. The idea though... NYC from your stats should at least see a r/s mix for a while at the start and I think the bulk of Sunday, if not all snow at the start and end. and some sort of whitening of the CP ground. Now that we're at 48 hours away... from 2"- 8PM in Wantage NJ... I'm thankful that so far, that which makes forecasters queazy because of a sudden warm wet, or goodbye out to sea "probably" won't be happening.
  23. wdrag
    I'll be keeping this thread active through about 12z Tuesday, with obs for whatever happens this first storm embedded. At about 12z Tuesday, I'll get the OBS thread specific to the 9th-10th started as it is going probably be many pages (flooding rain, damaging wind, maybe front end snow west of I950. This storm as you're probably aware has potential for 2-3" in 12 hours (rain) and melting whatever water equivalent in NJ (mainly I80 south) is going to result in very rapid rises of rivers on the 10th. Looks to me like considerable river flooding of varying magnitude, awaiting reality. Passaic Pine Brook, IF 3" occurs total from these two storms, it goes to MDT flood on the 10th. Some our BOM guidance has 3.5-4" for basins. Not sure if it will be that much but if your sump pump dont work because of power outages... Worthy to monitor. Not Sandy etc but pretty significant.
  24. wdrag
    That in my opinion is correct. Canadian has to be on board for synoptic scale snow.
  25. wdrag
    Lets look at the 00z-06z/5 NAM thermal profiles for NYC. My guess is there will be steady snow much of Sunday NYC-northern Li but melt on pavement and have difficulty accumulating on grass during midday bit its all sub the about temps 32-34 and precip rate. For now I think odds are under 3" CP-northern LI and mostly likely 1/2-2" but I've been wrong before. I dont know if anyone has noticed the cyclic steadiness of EC and GGEM. Now I'm switching down to the HRRR, NAM RGEM.
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