wdrag
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The target for this decent 9-15 hour snowfall continue PA-NJ, though the SREF is I80 north. Debateable but to me it looks like a base snowfall of 2" everywhere and then tops could e narrow swath of 5". NWS graphics attached from 09z/17. I added OBS to the thread title at 503AM Wed and unfortunately felt the need to add rain/snow mix tag for at least eastern/southern LI and coastal NJ where all snow is not in my mind a 100% guarantee. This event differs from the Tuesday event (I'll have a snowfall/qpf brief review up in the Tuesday thread late today). Tuesday was pure warm air advection with an 850 MB sw jet as the 5H short wave triesdtilting negative in its Tuesday afternoon mid Atlantic coast passage. This upcoming event looks a little more negative at 5H, and to me sharper with slower flow aloft as an 850MB low (very weak) tries to form in eastern PA-NJ coast Friday. This one to me has a little better chance at a short period of decent dendritic snow growth. (Tuesdays snow at least for nw NJ was mostly small flake dense packed). The EPS is well south of the SREF. I like best snowfall in the weak south or east flow between 8H-7H which is north of the EPS and is what the NWS 09z/17 probabilities for 2 and 4" show. User the colors bar for the chances of these amounts and click for clarity. All solutions need consideration. Another nice snowfall is on the way. At 555AM I added: The thought that we could break the record consecutive streak of no daily snowfall 2" or more at CP is definitely a possibility. Depends on snowfall rates and timing the measuring.
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Wantage NJ a dissaoointing 2.6" vs my expectations but it is beautiful. Max temp 24.4 which is now, and winds becoming a little gusty now. Most of the snowfall was small flake snow...max lift below dendrite growth zone. Densely packed powder. Kuchera didnt work for this storm... primarily because of snow growth. I may have mentioned it looked lackluster in a post yesterday. No matter...its snow. I'll post CoCoRaHs water equiv qpf and snow totals tomorrow, sometime in the afternoon.
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NWS LSR snow reports through 1230PM attached. Colors indicate the amounts which are basically heavier to the sw of NYC. Also added the 12z, 24 hour snowfall, from-via NOHRSC..which mirrors NWS reporting.
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Wantage NJ 2.1" at 1110A. S--
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Big time cooling in the satellite imagery CP as a short wave approaches from the southwest. Snow and intensities of mixd precipitation I95 should intensify and expand west the next 4 hours (19z). So far lots of fine flake dense packed snow here in Wantage with 2" but should get a decent dump 11A-2P here in SC. 21F. see tropical tidbits satellite imagery or the various WFO pages. Fine flake snow in progress despite few radar returns.
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Hopeful that an interim 945A measurement was made for the 2..75 hours additional minor acc. Sighhhh
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So far, CoCoRAH obs totals reported this morning. Will update with two day snowfall and water equiv tomorrow, sometime in the afternoon. Click for clarity if interested.
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I'd leave it on... melting may occur on pavement but the key for me..any ice that might accum on a recently shoveled untreated pavement. your decision.
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I hope they didnt use X. X is not a standard PRIMARY dissemination tool for met purposes. Poor policy if it is since people like myself dont use twitter---
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I agree 100%. A lot of the news is to sell interest (vis a vis EPIC, Bombshell etc). That's why daily records are helpful but incomplete for precip. Need 24 hour records for precip events... and 48 hr etc but cross midnight CLI purposes. Too difficult, I'm afraid. At least this is behind us. Enjoy the snow and ice.
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I just used CLI at midnight and the 1" written on here.
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Just my opinion: I think in fairness to the ENTIRE community of met interests... I sure hope TWC did not get this snowfall first. This has to go out in a standard product that everyone can access (not FB or phone). I will stand corrected if someone can show me the product. Thanks, Walt
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That makes it 1.4 for CP for entire event through 7AM.
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I am so far behind you ... where did you find this? What product?? Thanks, Walt
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Definitely a little short at sunrise, amounts up here NNJ. Disorganized around our NYC subform but its not over, especially with temps in the 20s. about 7 more hours in NNJ. going to have trouble exceeding 4" here in Wantage, I think. 1.4 right now.
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I'll be looking for CP snowfall which in the past 6 hours might. be under an inch, but for the day? hoping 1". Then when it changes to ice, will they measure at the changeover? I don't know policy - constraints.
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Wantage NJ 8s High Point in Sussex County. 1.1" at 440A. Plowing I progress. 20.5F
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Quite a nice snowstorm developing for the big cities... even Richmond. We worry too much, I think... let's count on a good deal of what we haven't seen much of in the cities at sunrise. After that, so be it. Enjoy this snow! mPing has it on south shore LI!
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BWI moderater snow at 7PM and I think they are over an inch now. DCA may be at 1.5" since I saw a 4/002 indicating 2" on the ground there.
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It's just an estimate. I ,or the modeling might be wrong-there's hope. Enjoy waking to a whitened landscape.
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fwiw on the megalopolis cities first 1". DCA AT 4P 0.7. Since then en ought measurable to suggest at least 1" BWI at 4P 0.5. Since then approaching 1. PHL Trace through 4P. I've seen 1-2": near Richmond and just southwest of DCA, with 0.5 to near 1" DCA-BWI. This seems to be a mainly Tuesday morning snow-ice show for our NYC subforum...about a 12-15 hour event. Short term guidance is getting pretty firm on warming aloft NYC and to just west if I95 near or just after sunrise. I'm not counting on. the globals regarding changover. Best snow in the broad 4-6" axis in dark blue. I think this forecast may be 2" too low in northwest Ct/w MA.
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Just a reminder continue with obs and now casts here and pllllease enjoy this. Its a nice wintry event. CP should beautiful in the morning. Thanks!
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Am seeing some banding tomorrow but snow growth looks a little lackluster. I probably wouldn't inflate this event past 5 inches for the I84 corridor-ABE,
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DecJan: I hope everyone is enjoying the extremes this winter season has brought us so far. Obviously a nice winter week in progress. Is this all there is after the big warmup the middle of next week? You never know, so good to take what we have or is imminent and enjoy it to the max. I'm no long ranger so taking what I have available through Jan 30, ensembles qpf 1.5-2.5". If the max 2.5... CP would be #10 wettest Jan (6.0") and Allentown #4 with (6.7") respectively. Long ways to go and easier to have a shortfall. To me its looking interesting again from next weekend (27th and beyond) for mixed wintry events.
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This event was ok...but not quite as expected (disappointing for me). Few gusts 50-60MPH with power outages, especially western NJ westward across PA and north through NYS. Best snow squalls our area (1/4 mile vsby) were probably the Poconos and then as the blue wave TL above, up near and north I90 in NYS/MA. CoCoRaHs snowfall our area yesterday is attached-click for clarity. Also attached the Li portion of the NYC PNS wind gusts from Sunday afternoon. I always like to see a solid wrap on all these event threads.
