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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    I've seen multiple member concerns about too early... will hold off til 12z/10 cycle completes tomorrow (unless exceedingly convincing Positive snow depth consensus on 12z cycle.. I completely understand hugger or Apps track for the 16th...and too many threads. I'll wait but modeling gets pretty good out to D10 on big ones. This dual storm thread started 12/31... open ended allowing possibilities on events and improve toward T0. Renewed flooding is again a possibility for I95 next Tuesday if it doesn't snow (presuming tonights event 2+" and Friday night 1" events occur occur NNJ basins. 00z/10 NAEFS response is so far east at D7-8 that it will have to edge west for a snowstorm ne USA. I somehow dont see this as a Great Lakes cutter--- more of a positive tilt trough. Even today its going to snow-sleet I84-nw NJ. Thursday is going to be interesting NYS lee of Lakes-pretty good short wave. Then that Friday night storm I think will end up east of current track with snow ice I84 to start. I will wait
  2. wdrag
    NAEFS check is only 2 tenths of an inch along the coast and more OTS for the 16th-17th. That is caution to the wind for me as well. I need to wait for the 12z cycle before threading.
  3. wdrag
    Agreed... I think if you permit, when I probably thread this later today, I'd like to use your graphic and comment as well as mine to set this up. Modeling can still be off quite a bit but it's improving on large scale events 7-10 days in advance. Just let me know.
  4. wdrag
    06/9 GEFS does not have an inch for the 16th storm...not yet. GEFS tends to be conservative and I like the 06z op idea. No thread on this storm from myself til sometime between 11A-5P. I prefer to be better armed with somewhat more favorable consensus guidance. I do think it will happen I95 west but I dont want to post a HOPE thread.
  5. wdrag
    One step at a time for this storm: Note--- ridges in Sussex County NJ and the Poconos-Litchfield Hills will see a small accumulation of snow during midday. Next the winds: I've looked at minimum wind gusts in the SPC HREF Fire menu. It's 55+ iz expanding as it is the HRRRX. Southern and coastal NJ/Delmarva up to near NYS-LI will see 50-65 MPH will gusts here and there tonight. The flooding depends on the bands of 2-4". I see it best in northeast PA and then I95 and am hoping Sussex County in nw NJ gets out of here with only 1-1.5". Snow clogged gutters will spawn leaks I think where 2"+ occurs. Where the 3-4" occurs, I think cellars will be tested. The temps in the 50s will be only 6 hours before back down into the upper 30s-40s by sunrise. My guess is I84 northward will hold the water for a slower release the next several days with snow remaining at 2" or higher. My guess is Sussex County might still have 1" left tomorrow morning... I'm hoping for that. I dont want to deal with rapid release flooding tomorrow morning,
  6. wdrag
    Sighhhh.... please-please understand that the NWS is a standardized government operation (one voice) with national control and very little local office options to reconfigure baseline products to local improvements. In my opinion, we would be lost on flooding at river forecast points without the already the D1-3 forecasts and the ensemble products. Pick your battles. In my opinion, we live well with what we have.
  7. wdrag
    Good Tuesday morning everyone, It is Dec 9. Storms today, late Friday-Saturday, next Tuesday and possibly the 19th-20th. Various moderate to high impact flavors on your life that will require adjustments. PLEASE follow National Weather Statements on the various phenomena this next week. Keep the shovel handy, the sump pump working, generator on standby with plenty of fuel and phones charged. You stand a good chance for a period of no power between now and next Tuesday night. Cellars will be tested for combined rainfall-snowmelt from NJ/PA northeast to Massachusetts. There may be isolated roof collapses and a better chance of roof leaks because snow-ice clogged gutters. Cancellations for various storms will be required in some places, especially NJ/PA/New England/NYS. I will likely begin the Tuesday 16th thread sometime between 11AM and 5PM. I've attached the 00z/9 EPS 24 hour positive snow depth change map that ends at 198 hours. Pretty significant but again looks tentatively like I95 west to the Appalachians.. I think its this storm that brings back normal or subnormal temps for a day or two, followed by a cold front around the 19th-20th that reinforces the normal or subnormal cold. Extended thaw? I doubt before the 23rd.
  8. wdrag
    The modeled next powerful storm into the Great Lakes region should add around another inch of rain in 6-12 hours Friday night, possibly causing renewed urban, basement and small stream flooding and probably extending on-going mainstem flooding in the NYCsubforum through the weekend. Maximum south-southeast coastal gusts possibly capped around 50 MPH along the shore Friday night but when the storm gets into Canada, backside westerly gusts might hit 50 MPH anywhere in the NYC subforum for brief periods of time later Saturday into Sunday. So some power outages are possible. Coastal flooding does not appear to be a large threat. Snow-sleet-freezing rain is anticipated at the start Friday afternoon-evening along the I84 corridor bordering the northwest portion of NYC subforum with "possible" short duration amounts generally 1/2-2" mainly in the high terrain above roughly 1000 feet. I84 corridor valleys, probably little or no accumulation. Max rainfall from this storm maybe ~2'? This thread will also serve as the OBS thread for this anticipated event.
  9. wdrag
    CPC's hazard issuance Jan 16-beyond. No see citification on precip so let's say normal... but snow, wind and cold are on the table... low probs but on the table. I like this for consideration of Jan 16-17. Just not enough for me to make it thread...not yet --- possibly by Friday.
  10. wdrag
    Have seen enough of the ensembles for 16th-17th. I'll leave that one out of the thread, for future consideration of a thread where I think we either have a period of snow or a snowstorm with I95 the east boundary and the assorted variations. Thread on this Fri-Sat should appear 5P. Have errands to run and focus I hope is the oncoming 9 hour torrential rain/wind event event Fri night - preceded by 1/2-2" snow sleet ne PA, extreme nw NJ north of I84 high terrain to Worcester Friday midday-afternoon.
  11. wdrag
    Love this- I trust you. I just need to think the less dire side of what will happen... not quite as severe so I dont get swept up in my own world. Balanced with other input. I'll be interested in the PHI AFD late today and their EM briefing page where these possibilities-likelihoods in my opinion should be spelled out. If they occur as we expect...everyone has been prepared. If not spelled out and they occur, then we have a communications problem since some non human modified guidance is guiding us to serious issues. This is where I like science AI some day. Not Sandy. but a big impact player. Thank YOU! Very good post of the options... Fwiw: Texas now 40,000 meters out. Going up.
  12. wdrag
    Hi... I like it. NRCS? In any case... my only concern is that mixed temps over the snowpack may not pass 50 or if they do, not be 50+ for more than 6 hours over snow depth 8+... I kind of see that in the plan view guidance before and after midnight. sort of looks to me like where there is 8+ snow cover, we only lose 75% and the remaining 2" hold a lot of water... You're the hydrologist. My concerns are similar though I dont have any expertise on river rises outside of having produced warnings. I value what you've said. fwiw... I'm going to have to use NERFC/PHI forecast stages. Temps/qpf will ultimately dictate. Whatever doesn't go Wed morning, might complete the melting cycle Fri night, but even there mostly chilly temps except for maybe 6 hours?
  13. wdrag
    Hi... you saw my last post of how guidance is posted to answer your questions-impressions. Here's the MARFC answer on D4-9. Please accept this. I hope I've closed the loop on all your concerns. If not, please let me know. Thanks. ---- Walt, The nine day forecast slider is the default and we can't change it. We will still be issuing our usual 3 day forecasts and there are no current plans to change that.
  14. wdrag
    fwiw... 12z/8 snow depth change is slowing growing via the GEFS. 00z cycles of CMCE-EPS are similar. This is leaning me to a two storm single thread... but no final yet. IFFF the 12z OP EURO VEERS off course ( a new course) I drop the 16th-17th event. Also... that event could end up wet LI and snowy I84. I think it will occur, and then the cold comes in , with secondary CFP (snow shower) bringing on more significant below normal temps after the 20th. I 'think' but could be wrong, that we dry out after the 17th for 10 days. This is at least a cue... not an answer but something to shape the future.
  15. wdrag
    Could-- am taking these numbers verbatim more pore less and let reality direct. We only have a 12 hour winedow. It will pound and fortunately most of the melting should begin during the night but residual runoff Wednesday morning will be impressive. I foresee lots of flooded basements in NNJ. I am even worried here in SC. The snow may hold a lot of the water in the interior of NYS/ne PA and prevent major flooding but I'm not betting. Please reference the Snow water equiv map posted earlier...at least 1" of water to melt in NNJ near Passaic County I think.
  16. wdrag
    Added the 12z/8 run for 24 hr qpf...SPC HREF--please reference the legend. I like this and it matches multiple model bands of heaviest qpf which looks to me like 1.5-3.25" with the heaviest over NNJ. I checked minimum wind gusts and all generally 50-55 MPH Delmarva-coastal NJ and LI 00z-07z/10. I dont want to hammer the wind too much more right now. I'm certain of power outages. but how extensive? I see the NAM BL wind is 45kt at 06z/10... that's very large. LI and se New England coast should have pretty significant problems. Discuss and add on. Texas now up to 19000 power outages as the eastward and then northeast ward march of power outages has just started. Is it continuous across multiple states? Smokies should feel this late tonight-tomorrow morning.
  17. wdrag
    Waiting til 350P. Best way to go seems to be a 12-13 thread. Ensembles previously--all 3 major global had a snow event the 16th... and this far out only 1-2". I think we can wait till 350PM.
  18. wdrag
    Snow water equivalent...alot of this in NJ e PA will melt by Noon Wednesday. Lot of potential water for the rivers wherever 2-3" of qpf occurs on top of that NJ snow water equiv. 12Z/8 Modeling and BOM is favoring I think the I287 area...correct me if Im wrong.
  19. wdrag
    Jan 6-7 CoCoRaHs rainfall-snowfall data, plus NOHRSC snowfall. Click for clarity if you wish.
  20. wdrag
    does that fit snowman19 nada east of I287? I'm doing cocorahs now. I need to understand reality.
  21. wdrag
    Good morning again, I keep thinking about what is ahead. Let me see what CPC does at 330PM, but pretty sure at that time I will post a dual storm thread 12-13 (similar to tomorrow) and then the colder wintry one for the 16th. It's that one that possibly shuts off major storms here for a week or 10 days to get us below normal temps and freeze up the river flows. I need more time and am off line til at least 1030. Thanks, Walt
  22. wdrag
    SPC HREF under Fire: go to gust potential and make sure you keep it on MIN gust... that will be realistic. Looks potent at 00z/10 especially Delmarva. The idea is to use conservative predictors far in advance.
  23. wdrag
    Adding one more thought on Tue night winds: I've seen stronger predicted wind gusts for other storms so we will see power outages, uproots etc... I'm always a little less than ideally certain on what happens. I think the idea is have cell phones charged and if you have a home generator, enough gas to power... and if nothing happens that affects you---MUCH better outcome. There will be wind damage and uproots but few leafed trees. So... I dont have quite the feel-confidence I'd like for the overall extensiveness of the wind problem. We will know by this time Wednesday.
  24. wdrag
    Friday night-Saturday morning: No thread til I can get organized time here at home but certain will get one going by Wednesday. Right now I think we should concentrate on this Tuesday night's 9 hour excessive rain-wind. it looks likely that Poconos-I84 high terrain late Friday get a shot of snow-sleet, then heavy rain and possible wind damage Friday night which continues the flood threat in the northeast. Gusty winds 40-55 MPH in the wake of the storm over the entire northeast USA lingers through this coming weekend. Another tough event that impacts all of us in some way..either flooding or power. Next Monday night-Tuesday (1/15-16) looks like a period of snow or a snow storm for at least I95 west but no thread yet. Uncertainty.
  25. wdrag
    Tuesday Noon... suspect we'll see a little sleet melting for an hour PHL-NYC. Extreme nw NJ-Poconos-Catskills could see a 3 hour snow-sleet of 1/4-1" 10-2PM ish.
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