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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Will review again and at 8pm will probably start a thread. Just need a little more time to review. Have a day
  2. wdrag
    OKX max gust reports herein. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/windpns2.pdf PHI max gust reports herein. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi Attached CoCoRaHs rainfall reports and snowfall reports. CP had 1.95" the two storms total 2.6". ABE two storms total near 3.39" This above does it for me... hopefully most here found this thread some fun. Hopefully more of a wintry fun develops for NYC-LI before spring.
  3. wdrag
    On next week: I'm thinking best cols shots AFTER Jan 15-16, and Jan 18-20 events. I think the cutter threat for next week is less likely than what has. been modeled for this week. It will take quite some sharpening of the ensemble 5H and imo, its a somewhat more positively tilted trough initially that may go neutral by the 16th. That permits more of a I95 track than inland. The 06z/10 EPS continues developing an Ohio Valley to northeast USA snow risk and ice on the se edge. I am waiting out ensemble developments for the 12z and 18z cycles before any thread but I am pretty sure a hazardous wintry event requiring road treatments will be needed later Monday or Tuesday morning as more gusty cold air pours in on the back side of whatever occurs, I95 or just west with snow max I84? Also, ensembles have the jet primarily south of 40N through a least the 24th, meaning a difficult time to get big persistent warmer than normal up here to NYC prior to the 24th.
  4. wdrag
    Example of ensembles Passaic mainstream at Pine Brook with the 1" rain raising the river stage even higher this weekend,
  5. wdrag
    So, Some customers in NJ, PA, NYS: power, I can see problems for a few customers having no power into next Monday the 15th, because of renewed power outages Fri night, and the weekend west winds will be 5-10 MPH more blustery than what we see today (near 40 MPH) gusts here and there today.
  6. wdrag
    This continues more or less as outlined with small variations and generally less rain but that rain pushes some of the mainstream rivers into potentially higher stages. another nighttime potent event.
  7. wdrag
    Mon-Tue: not threading til 6P, if then. I'm pretty sure we'll have light-moderate event that will include snow/ice I84 corridor, possibly down to I95 with LI problematic and for now mostly wet there with only a touch of snow sleet. EPS backed off slightly and the GEFS-CMCE dont want to increase snow accum and the NAEFS is east of us. So, best to wait through at least the 12z/10 cycle, possibly beyond. Also looking at Jan 18-20 and Jan 24 for a possibly colder snowier event-again light to moderate but NYC/LI confidence on 1"+ snow is uncertain and NAEFS again too our south and east with the qpf on both, for now. Just have to wait and ride out this Friday night-Sat and cleanup some debris both from this one today and then again this weekend.
  8. wdrag
    Well, I was worried, LI wouldn't produce decent wind but it did. Since about 1AM the following gusts 50 knots. KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KHWV: Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY, United States [55kt, 28m/s] KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [50kt, 26m/s] I'll await OKX max gust report when they get settled and have enough staff to generate it.
  9. wdrag
    NJ 42,000 meters out and climbing pretty fast... Here's a map.
  10. wdrag
    I agree...same in Wantage...power flickering and Sussex Rural has outages Lake Pochung and Highland Lakes. Rough storm. Anyone using radar scope... I think the DIXstorm total that I saw at 830PM looks very good when comparing with NJ climate rainfall for NJ. Big boy event. Keep yourself calm as things go downhill,
  11. wdrag
    Total QPF finding nice max axis fro Hunterdon-Morris-Passaic counties.
  12. wdrag
    You should know 51 KT has just occurred at ILG and I think 52kt se PA ...both coinciding with recent power outage increases in those areas as seen on the power outage map. I'll post as my overnight ambulance driver coverage permits.
  13. wdrag
    The only reason now no new 16th MDT impact snow rain thread is on -going thread now, then another serious event thread Fri night. I'll start this thread tomorrow morning 10AM if we have power, which I expect we will here in nw NJ. I checked rolling 24 hour positive snow depth change and the CMCE/GEFS both have it, an inch less than the consistent EPS but a day FASTER...15th. Attached EPS 00z and 12z cycles: 24 hr +snow depth change, ending 06z/17
  14. wdrag
    One comment on CF... timing is everything with the high tide cycle. Next storm Fri night-Sat AM is seemingly modeled to be worse than what occurs tomorrow morning.
  15. wdrag
    Dunkirk NY 64 Kt. Latrobe PA 57 kt. Erie 55kT. Power outages at 2PM.
  16. wdrag
    Agree 100%. This is a time one voice,. Dissent won't be in anyone favor. Prepare to mitigate if the power goes out or you develop roof leaks-cellar flooding or live next to a flooded waterway.
  17. wdrag
    Now Oregon less than 10,000 meters out. but the idea above holds.
  18. wdrag
    One of the problems with this storm... damage so widespread that support crews are needed not in only in one concentrated area but spread out. At least 10,000 meters out in each of the states of WA/OR, then from Texas-KS east with over 100,000 meters out in FL and I think fairly extensive power outages headed for western NYS and up the USA east coast. Hoping we luck out here in slightly c cooler nw NJ. But ridges in the Poconos might get surprise big burst early tonight.
  19. wdrag
  20. wdrag
    Wantage NJ light rain-sleet 0.4" total snow sleet at 1250PM. HRRRX wind guidance. 60 kt is modeled for LI...the 50-60 KT NJT, not sure what that is but it could be a squall line damaging puff.
  21. wdrag
    Suggest taking wind seriously from Cape May NJ to JFK eastward with 45-55 MPH NYC, but Cape May to southern LI 60 MPH + likely. best time s NJ near 7PM up to NYC -LI mid-3A. I think precautions are wise. I just posted the MINIMUM gust potential from an 8 member SPC High Res model. Its imperfect. I dont want to look at the worst but 75 MPH is not impossible on LI. Minimum: Purple is 60, dark brown 55, ;light brown 50 and this is a snapshot of wind gusts near 1AM. The HRRR and SPC HREF gin gusts tend to be used. by firewater folks. High res data. Within 24 hours...need to pay attention. to this guidance.
  22. wdrag
    MT Pocono 1" new snow. Power outages s central pa related to 5-6" new wet snow there. 90 MPH wind gusts ridges. here's a sampler.
  23. wdrag
    Albany GA 61 KYT, Dunkirk NY on L Erie 55 kt.
  24. wdrag
    Wantage NJ. This lower elevation part 0.3” snow. Now sleet snow mix. All treated surfaces wet but home pavements etc snow covered and 31F
  25. wdrag
    1 mile S- 31f. Pave wet in Wantage 740’ msl
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