wdrag

Will look at this closely for a thread, if NYC can show 2+ on the 06z GEFS... for now, think I'd ;like to wait til this evening. It is 6 days out.

My call 6+. His call I dont know, but I do know that we're not talking 1-3" climo.

Regarding winter prospects last two weeks of Feb. CPC Friday week 3-4 (appended) and Tomer mirror each other, drier and cooler than normal here. It's ensemble guidance and imperfect. A bump north and we're good as Bluewave mentioned. My problem: the D8-14 from the NAEFS still has us warmer than normal 11th-18th., albeit attempting to cool around the 14th and after. So what? Cause, the 06z/3 GEFS 24 snow depth change appended here, shows what we may be suspecting. Elevation dependent snow snowfall is more prominent and inland (climo?). Think it might take a while to rid ourselves of the modified Pacific airmass which at this point in my mind doesn't bode well for NYC/LI. At least the SST's are near normal. So my hope for this pattern to produce continues, in part due to the more favorable 5H structure, in part due to a reliable long ranger that likes the option for a decent megalopolis snowstorm this winter- (communications since last summer), and in part due to what I see is the verifying CNN story Dec 2 post, appended. I just need to live well outside of weather, prior to something budding favorably. If interested-click the graphics for a little more clarity.

Update the initial Jan thread with monthly verification and comments.

fwiw..I added the CPC updated Feb outlook from Jan 31 to the initial thread so we can look back.

helps if we have snow cover for the colder period... presume all saw the new weeklies issued today (is the hope going to verify in our favor later Feb-early March?)

Unfortunately, in the end I like the Canadian with snow, otherwise. I sure hope we can get something those last two weeks of Feb.

Unlikely 12z/31 NAM solution for nearby NYC snow Thu night-Fri morning. Not on the 06z Canadian RGEM, nor on 00z/31 GEFS/CMCE ensembles. Doesn't mean it can't happen but my guess is that there will be above freezing layers aloft to make this wet NYC, icy w - n suburbs if its nearly this extensive.

And the winnah... the NAM and GFS (USA modeling) and Canadian as well vs the nil ECMWF. Shallow RH, weak lift and here's the results. I also added the NBM from 8PM the 29th which had a touch but am sure it was diminished by the nil EC. Also, I don't think it captured elevated slightly heavier small flake snowfall. imo, no model can be disparaged every time... I don't. Sometimes frustration-yes! and the NBM is imperfect but a nice starting point, Here's the melted water equiv and snowfall from CoCoRaHs overnight. Please click for your clarity if you wish

This part of Wantage 0.1" very fine flake snowfall and still ongoing at 31.5. No problems on pavement.

flurries expanding NYC/LI at 650 PM and am pretty sure interior NNJ will see 0.1- to iso 1" ridges ne PA and SC nw NJ by unrise whereever temps now 33F or colder. It's modeled -8C at the top of moist layer near 850MB...so ice nuclei available. That may disappear toward sunrise when snow changes to drizzle/freezing drizzle-sleet then gradually end. by Noon. SFC temp determines whether freezing or non. I think there's a pretty good chance of whitening of the ground..maybe not CP but outskirts of the urban centers have a very good chance of whitening, especially NNJ-ne PA. Enjoy whatever happens.

So the bogus 00z-06z/30 NAM..possibly too cool tonight NYC but still has a touch of snow...freezing drizzle...ice pellets much of western LI thru NNJ. Shall we ignore it? EC nothing and already busting on no fragments of icy wintry precip occurring MA, RI e LI NJ and PA. I think it will happen. Spotty 1/2-1" hills of NNJ into ne PA? GFS and HRRR have it tonight so could be a little slick in spots outside the city later tonight. Overall the future doesn't offer anything substantial east of the Apps next two weeks. ATTACHED 10 day NBM snowfall. Click for clarity. btw I notice some NYC TV doesn't seem to check mPing... here in Wantage we had some graupel-Trace.

Click for clarity if you're interested in snowfall for this weekends I84 event. The 2 day would slightly more ne PA but this was the essentials. Repeating a little from this morning's wrap. You'll note via initial thread issuance, that the EPS prob of 1" ended up the worst of the outlooks. No single model is best every time but the NBM blend works, especially as the NWS has incorporated many elements that we don't see here outside the NWS domain via National Blend of Models (NBM). Any future initialized winter threads for NYC will incorporate the National Blend of Models (NBM) which did very well on this non-event south of I84 and am sure was part of the guidance for the conservative NWS deterministic snow forecasts. I've seen this NBM perform well on big rain events. This is my first winter utilizing it. I'll make sure it is added to the initial thread issuance in the future, in addition to the globals EPS probs and EPS positive snow depth change, which will make a routine of 6 graphics plus the NBM graphic. 29/659P

I'm aware this was a wrong forecast south of I84. I'll post maps of snowfall this evening. You'll note via initial thread issuance, that the EPS prob of 1" ended up the worst of the outlooks. No single model is best every time but the blend works, especially as the NWS has incorporated many elements that we don't see here outside the NWS domain via National Blend of Models (NBM). Any future winter threads for NYC (if there are any?) will incorporate the National Blend of Models (NBM) which did very well on this non-event south of I84 and am sure was part of the guidance for the conservative NWS deterministic snow forecasts. I've seen this NBM perform well on big rain events. This is my first winter utilizing it. I'll make sure it is added to the initial thread issuance in the future (if there any) in addition to the EPS probs.

about an inch I think from earlier pictures. Moderate sleet shower lower Wantage 4-415. I think we're going to stick during the night... not much and way less than ensembles but a little snow is coming, especially this evening ne PA and NW Nj, eventually to translate to I95-NYC- near PHL by morning. Lowest of the day right now at 33.3

So far. It’s icy up there and snow should accumulate by sundown

Unsure...follow NWS map attached. Should be snowing Mt Pocono now. 32F. NWS WPC broad area probs for 1 and 4 attached. Go to PHI home page and then theirwinter wx page and that will give you probs of various amounts.

Rain-wet snow mix at 640A at 740' elevation. Temps northern SC 33-34F except 31 at the HP Monument.

Mixed rain, ice pellets and snow mPing reports sw CT and interior se NYS.

Just received a report of snow on Deckertown (CR650 in Sussex County NJ with elevations above 1000 feet) and no acc but temps are falling. Mount Pocono 32 so the transition to wet snow at elevations has started. 34 at HP and Vernon at 530AM. I think much more to come next 6 hours up here.

MPING: Unless the modeling warms and yields no snow/rain mix down I78 and NYC (maybe even I-195)tomorrow morning, I think mPing is going to be valuable ground truth, but please dont let it preoccupy your day. I have a granddaughter over so I'll be paying attention again for a while tomorrow morning and again tomorrow night. Correlation Coefficient on Radar Scope or other apps may be helpful for us inland from I95. Banding tomorrow morning per continuing NAM signal and HREF: Wont surprise me to see 1/4-1/2" splot down in an hours time I80 north and coastal CT. Banding Sunday evening more persistent from ne PA to near the Catskills-Berkshires. That's when "possibly" the biggest snowfall occurs ne PA-se NYS-CT-MA.

NWS 4PM snow forecast that guided their forecast and WWA. Also the 19z NBM. Click for clarity.

I'm at 740'MSL. You'll know seeing my reports or those of nearby Vernon on mPing between 7and 9A in north central SC, whether our thinking will work I'm counting on 2" slushy snow here at this Wantage elevation and probably 4-5" total Vernon and High Point. This might be high per NBE? You're thinking it out well and so its too close to be certain except am pretty sue we'll whiten the ground for a while. I see the 18z EPS and HRRR continure. If the 18z NAM loses it and the future HRRR too, then it wont happen. Decisions will need to be made for the 330PM advisories Pocs northeastward, and maybe a warning Catskills and possibly Litchfield Hills where power outages more likely (imo). Only my opinion.

So far, the HRRR continues on its path of rain to snow I78 by 12z Sunday...so far. Am not guaranteeing but its still an option, especially since it like the Canadian suite tend to run slightly warm and amped.

Good Saturday morning everyone, It's a forum but I think those who malign the models would be nowhere had their been no models. For this forum I hope a respectful approach is preferred (at least I hope that is preferred by our moderators). Each weather situation is different and we'll see at Noon Monday which model or blend of models verified most accurately at their portrayal of an elevation dependent event. Tuesday CoCoRaHs)post of snowfall, maybe sooner if WFO's need to issue PNS's. I did not substantially change the thread title this morning. A slight delay and smoothing out of the date-day and added OBS. I95 to the coast wet roads, despite any wet snow at the front and back end of this moderate elevation dependent I84 northward snow event with potential for power outages north of I84 in 4+" wet snow areas near 1000 feet and above. Modeling suggests bands (yes newd transitory banding) of heavy qpf tomorrow morning that between 8AM and Noon could be mixed with wet snow down to I78 and NYC (no accum or spotty 0.1" grass) for NYC-LI. Back side of the event is in question but some of the modeling is continuing to drag its heels in storm departure (and was at thread inception). I think the implication is the remaining 5H vort-sharp trough passing eastward across NJ will send a cluster of showery mixed r/s newd from BWI_PHI at dawn Monday and try to merge-blend in with the 850MB nose of the northeast jet band in NYS/CT around sunrise in NYC to bring periods of wet melting snow to I95 and LI. This too may come down briefly 3/4Mile in parts of NJ/NYC-LI Monday morning-midday with a whitening of the grass and snowboards possible. I think we have a major test between ensemble (and operational) positive snow depth change and the NBE snowfall when modeled 2m temps are 33-36F. I may be misunderstanding the use of positive snow growth, especially in the ensembles... for now I use positive snow growth as a useful tool for roads... and double it for a base to max range of measurable snow. When it snows, temps tend to drop to between 32-34F an hour or 2 after it starts.--not sure if modeling can capture that. Obviously at night its an easier accum on all surfaces. Cooler air is now leaking ever so slowly south down to I90 and will be drawn into the BL over our area from northeast during this event while strong lift from the approaching 5H short wave and 850MB se inflow will help cool the column Sunday before backside comma head curls southward and eastward of our area Monday morning. My 530AM expectations for NNJ remain as is: Northern NJ-Poconos -southeast NYS Sunday-Sunday night: GREAT UNCERTAINTY with vastly differing modeling for an elevation dependent event and much more conservative NWS forecast (see their graphic attached). 1/2-2" wet snow Easton PA-Warren County and the south two thirds of Sussex County (including Newton) over to Kinnelon but 3-6" wet snow likely Poconos and the north border of Sussex County including High Point, Vernon and northern Wantage locations above about 1000 feet as well as Orange County NY elevations above 1000 ft. Rain changes to a 3 hour period of heavy wet snow sometime near 8-9AM Sunday then either quits in the afternoon or back to rain. Sunday night periods of mixed precip changes to lighter wet snow during the night. Temps fall during the snow Sunday to 32-34F Suggest factor in possible delays into the Poconos - I84 itself. Manageable mostly wet road travel Easton PA to Newton and Kinnelon NJ but slushy slippery at times elevations above 1000 feet. Not all modeling agrees but plan for the worst and it may turn out much less hazardous than I expect if the NWS much more conservative snow forecast is correct (see their graphic). This forecast is slightly less impact than what I was thinking on previous daily issuances. I'll check back in tonight or tomorrow morning. Have a day and fingers crossed that everyone realizes most snow events NYC-LI tend to be minor. I'm pretty sure you'll see a little white rain as some say tomorrow and some minor accum Monday.