wdrag

Mt Pocono 1N report of 1.3" on the ground at 7P per PHI FB and their posted storm report.

Saw a PHI FB report from near 1500' vicinity High Point NJ..snowing there.

Already at 530PM 1" of wet snow on the ground... and a little less on driveway at Mt Cobb, Exit 8 on I84. about 2000' elevation (Jefferson Township PA). Models are too slow in the higher elevations for snow depth CHANGE, which is what I use as a base. HRRR 3K NAM look good but am a little cautious because 12z EC nwas ot as robust as I'd like to see.---too much mixed snow sleet rain overnight in nw NJ. Temp here in Wantage at 537PM down to 37.4.

El Patron. Good Mexican food. They should accumulate

Been modeled by many models for two days. We’ll see what happens. Elevations good for sccum, sleet could rob 1-3” of potential snow accumulation

Sleet rain snow mix over to accumulative snow overnight. Haven’t seen 12Z ec positive snow depth change. Have to think slippery and plow able even down to 800’. Heading home from work now. Should be getting slippery in Poconos now above 1800 feet. Nice backside band developing in radar e central pa western nj. Should be our sleet snow changer thus evening

about .76 here in this part of Wanrage at 6A. 41.5F r/s mix in parts of e PA high terrain, Poconos west. We should in nw NJ high terrain start accumulating around 7-8P, and 1-3" high terrain by midnight... IF NOT, then my faith in modeling r/s boundaries is degraded. 06Z EC and 09z HRRR continue. am still looking for 1" Newton and 4-6" by sunrise Friday Highland Lakes/HP high terrain stretches n SC. Colder air seeping in... has to be some slippery untreated roads tonight. Will be more difficult to accum on roads tomorrow at 32F but grass/trees should add more at time of heavier rates.

Last 3 hours max wind gusts with the lines of showers and thunderstorms moving east through NYS/PA/VA. KDKK: Dunkirk, Chautauqua County, NY, United States [55kt, 28m/s] KPIT: Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Intl Arpt, PA, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KROA: Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA, United States [51kt, 26m/s]

I dont have much urge to start a thread for heavy rains most of our NYC subforum, then ends as a rain/drzl/barely noticeable wet snow mix. Could be more gusty than anticipated Th-Fri and I see some modeling is spotty 50-60 MPH just of LI to Cape May-Delmarva. Isolated 3-4" melted qpf tristate corner of pa/nys/nj. Still concerned about upper low redeveloping s of LI which might mean a little more action than modeled for Fri night. 12z/20 HREF looks a little cold. A n-s axis just east of AVP might be heavy damage. 12z/20 attached WSSI-P is the probability, in this case for MAJOR damage. This n/s axis has been cyclically repeating as the area to monitor for big wet snowfall and imo, heavy damage-power outages. Gusts to 30-35 MPH expected parts of that areas as well. Caution: It's where I monitor but the prob for major is below 40%. WSSI-P is something new for me this year so can't assign confidence regarding its value added. and now with the attachment WSSI-P.

Holding off tiI.I get back home at 5PM and reevaluate... that will give modeling time to calm down. Power imo is a big problem ton consider ne PA/maybe nw NJ. No action for me... most of NYC forum a rain storm gusty winds 35-45 MPH (iso G 50) with tail end wet snow mix.

The heavy qpf and wet snow is primarily Pocs and Cats, into nw NJ. Not really the bulk of the NYC metro. That's why I've held off. So---I dont want to over focus NYC metro on what will be mainly a rain event. An extreme storm was occurring overnight near Washington State. I tend to find extremes occur close to each other. Remember the Oxford Flood of Aug 18, then the 11 week drought Sept-now, and now multi modeling is offering spot 4" 48 hr qpf nw NJ/Pocs/Cats Tri state corner. From one extreme to another.

Do we want a thread for this storm. It will snow in NYC but probably no accumulation or less than 1/2" Friday night. This storm is focusing quite a damaging punch for the Poconos/Catskills and extreme nw NJ where spotty 4" rains are possible and certainly think 2" can occur NYC by 7AM Saturday. Your call.

Anyway, maybe my first time noticing but Pivotal now has 6 hr ECMWF op forecasts and all parameters out to 360 hours since the 12z cycle yesterday. (12z/12). Maybe I'm late to notice.

Looking interesting for TC Cuba-Fl northeastward about the 20th... 00z/11 GEFS solid D9 signal.... GEPS a little bit, and EPS again lagging.

Not convinced EPS will be correct... think we in the states would like a recurve per the preponderance of track guidance... even if it shears... we can use the rain VA northward. Also, intensity guidance seems to hang up above 35 kt. Uncertainty of course, but I am monitoring future course of the decaying Rafael for the Gulf coast. At least GEFS/GFS was correct Oct 20-24 for TC development, advancing the idea of a storm down there, though 3 days too fast on the process and may have been wrong on a US mainland landfall though am not convinced we're done.

Caribbean storm coming into better focus and may have an impact here (rain or squally rain?) around Nov 11-12? A large percentage of autumn rain here I think tropical related. Looks like we'll get something here with very minor tropical RH contribution Sunday night.

Checking back I saw isolated Trace nw NJ, s CT for this supposed 0% event... which verifies 0 percent officially but I Think a 5 or 10% would have been a better indicator. of the daily risk changes. I just saw a forecast on NY TV for 0% chance of rain through Friday? Decision making must have omitted the RGEM/NAM. It's murky light rain/drizzle tomorrow night or Tuesday morning, but to say 0%?Chec

SW Caribbean is 80% prob now in 7 day, 40% in 2. N central Atlc is 50% per 8PM TWO.

Thank you for posting your numbers. We'll check in on finals this April 2025. Hopefully there is a bit of winter. 11/1/24 537A EDT.

2PM TWO 10/31/24

Less than 2 days to offer your amount. Then we can look back in April and see how we did.

A late season TC-Hurr may still yet form in the sw Caribbean, but it's not going to my posted thinking of at least a week ago, occurring prior to Election Day. MY wrong interpretation and unless something changes in. hurry, my buy in to the GEFS mid range was probably wrong for initial TC development near Halloween, as others indicated herein. Patience I'm sure but whatever it is, seems like if any se USA impact, it would be later than Nov 5, NJ-PA: 00z/29 EPS/GEFS 5H pattern is quite different toward Nov 9. We need rain up here in NJ/e PA... for now, doesn't loo like any TC related rain before the 8th. A good portion of our autumn rain up here is TC related. Not a good situation for NJ/e PA. Will keep monitoring but my confidence has dimmed a bit.

00z/24 GEPS-EPS lackluster and I'm not sure if that will hold back NHC issuance of a TWO today somewhere in the Caribbean shores between Panama and Nicaragua but a 0% 2 day, 20 or 30% D7 seems warranted to me, especially considering repeated GFS op suggestion of a big storm down there. Once a TWO issues (only my presumption based on repeated GEFS suggestion), I'm out of this Trop Forum and will briefly revisit near Nov 7 or sooner, after all is said and done, whatever the outcome. All I ask is there any evidence that EPS is a better predictor D7 than the GEFS? Posters on here have all the options very well covered the past two pages, and always all the storm invests/tracking/potentials.

Need to keep monitoring the daily changes occurring in modeling aloft across North America, the first week of November. IF (when) a TC-Hurricane gets going near Cuba--- pretty sure it will adjust the upper atmosphere far away... There's already a fair amount of spaghetti showing sharp troughing in the USA first week of Nov. Where it ends up and the amplitude? Then, whether any tropical moisture or TC gets swept up the eastern USA, or as climo above shows...east-northeast out to sea away from FL... too soon to know but am wary of GEPS/EPS not showing much. I'll need to see the GEFS continue its increasing likelihood of a TC GOM-Caribbean near or just after Halloween, and increasing number GEFS members sharpening the trough near 80-85W the first week Nov. Yesterdays CPC words were attached to the graphic posted yesterday by purduewx on this page. Those words are: Recently, the anomalous upper-level divergence (convergence) increased over the Maritime Continent (Americas and Africa). Despite destructive interference between the MJO and the emerging weak La Nina during the next week, the GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement and consistent that a moderate to strong MJO propagates eastward to the western Hemisphere. By early November, the MJO is predicted to shift east from the Americas to Africa and the Indian Ocean. Based on the strength of the MJO during the next three weeks, MJO composites for both favored tropical cyclone (TC) development and anomalous precipitation are a major prognostic tool in the weeks 2 and 3 outlook. A pair of tropical cyclones (Nadine and Oscar) formed over the Atlantic basin this past week. Nadine was a short-lived TC and Oscar rapidly became a hurricane as it tracked north of Hispaniola. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support a 40 to 60 percent chance of TC development across the Caribbean Sea from October 30 to November 5. Many of these ensemble members depict TC genesis occurring as early as October 29. Regardless of the exact timing, forecast confidence is high that another TC forms across the Caribbean Sea by the end of October. Model guidance is also depicting an elevated chance of a subtropical low pressure system or tropical cyclone forming at a higher latitude over the southwestern Atlantic. This would be consistent with climatology and thus a 20 to 40 percent chance is posted for this region during week-2. From November 6 to 12, a 20 to 40 percent chance of TC development is posed for the Caribbean Sea based on climatology and since the MJO is likely to maintain a favorable large-scale environment for a late season TC through at least mid-November. ---- CPC's 3PM updated D8-14is attached... this fits the concerns expressed by this group in these past two pages. So, until the westerlies prevail down to GA inside of D7 on the GEFS and it no longer argues for TC development, I keep the door open for anything happening eastern third of the USA the first week of November. Just need to be patient and if this risk shifts out to sea as climo suggests, then I'll admit it. We are in an abnormal pattern. I'll wait this out a few more days.

Barring stats presented by others here that differ, imo, the GFS is best at TC genesis. That said, the 00z/22 GEFS has a closed ridge aloft centered off the Carolinas at Halloween. You see the # of members of this 21 member ensemble with something (TC) going s of Cuba. My guess is that modeling will continue to accentuate the ridge aloft off the Carolinas with time beyond D10, and steer the potential TC west, before eventual N-NE. Beyond D10, GEFS and EPS differ (especially Nov 4-6) with the GEFS progressive westerly flow while the EPS lags and has "potential" for the trough lagging back around 85W. Climate is full of extremes... Milton-Helene combo have us in a serious short term drought here in the NY-Philly metro. Could it reverse to a very wet pattern here along the e Coast in Nov...aided by a TC? I don't anticipate a Sandy, but I do think a TC forms, and only my opinion, it seems to have FL potential and northward along the e coast, dependent on trough aloft timing. Modeling of mid-upper level troughs-ridges tends to mush out with the variant members... and often sharpens drastically from a D10-15 spaghetti outlook. Need a TC first, then let the modeling steering adjust and guide us. Worthy of monitoring.