wdrag

Good Sunday evening everyone, I think Feb 1 has been targeted by the ensembles since ~00z/18. That's why i posted directly to this thread since it's a Feb event thread. The usual questions related to this winter are... does it end up stronger, further north and warmer-rainier, or does the predominantly grazing grouping of both the EPS, GEFS, NAEFS prevail? I'd love to see some blocking in ne Canada or a 50/50 low w blocking in Greenland but that is not likely. I'll post these 18z/26 GEFS plumes here for a possible look back when 18z/Feb 2 rolls around and whatever has occurred. I also added the NAEFS which is the GEFS and GGEM ensemble members combined. It too seems to show a grazer, albeit 12 hours slower (late Feb1-Feb 2). There's also variability in SNE (mm) as you can see from the legend. 759P/Jan 26

No further post from myself yet... would like to see GEFS snow plumes a touch higher for LGA before getting NYC group amped a bit. Lack of cold air in advance is a big concern so that this is a marginal thermal situation. Seems like EPS and GEFS stayed the same or trended down slightly (model noise and insignificant?) on snowfall but this is still a consistent signal for the I84 corridor itself to continue monitoring. Just having doubts south of I80 in NJ. There will be much much better scenarios in future winters, maybe later this winter, but will take what we can eek out from this winter. Will not post again til tomorrow morning 7AM. Later, Walt