wdrag

I see NHC increased to 70% prob for naming... per 8AM TWO. Need time to think on this...include see the UK/EC op around 230P. Thanks for your vote of confidence.

Hi! The primary reason i didn't is it could be a named storm, plus dealing with the uncertainty of this afternoons potential 2-4" clusters (not well modeled so far). Let's get to 9PM tonight and see where we're at. I don't like to post wrong ideas, which I'm a little worried about for this afternoon. For Tri-early Sat: (50% Fay?) Been a little concerned about ensemble and UKMET east of us on the Friday track which probably would feature most of the qpf along and east of the low. Haven't evaluated Friday more than cursory. You're welcome to start the topic but for now, for myself working with the forum, just waiting another 12 hrs or so to have a little more confidence.

SPC thinking and some of the modeling has it unstable in se NYS this afternoon. I see GFS qpf bullseyes, a large one in central NJ but another near the southern Catskills. If you see Cu Congestus or Towering Cu around 11A... you'll be good for strong storms nearby. I write too often in idling time due to the pandemic, but also from a selfish standpoint. I dont want to have to water our gardens every night and am quite fortunate to have a pool. Drought means I have to use well water (precious). So, I am looking to at least hear thunder (Terrier barking) and we both should have a storm but... impact could be quite minor, or briefly severe. IE look for action but whether a direct hit???

As previously modeled and noted by many on this forum...a busy 7 days upcoming for heavy convection-and challenges, not much different from previous days posts. My own concerns are prior to Friday-weekend. Have little doubt about isolated 4+ inch amounts in our NJ/se NYS forum area by Thursday evening (multi day total) but where, and when its greatest impact is less certain. Difficult to escape a few SVR, FF events (metro runoff)..again where?. Monitor NWS products and your own for more detail on reality. I don't want to look too far ahead, so am not going to focus on Friday-weekend for a couple more days. Need to see some qpf production between now and Thursday.

I see one shower crossed the western part to CT last night--insignificant. 18z GFS was spatially far too wet - in our area. Poor 6-12 hr minor qpf performance.

What's up w 18z GFS (wet overnight into parts of NY forum)? I do see a shower heading se from NYS for sw CT. Hmmm? Will check in the morning to see if anything happened. (HRRR is dry, so far).

Good Sunday afternoon, Just a couple of notes: SPC upgraded mid Atlantic tomorrow to "marginal". Not sure if it can happen along the NYS/NJ border but trust SPC considerations... modeling that I/we might not be aware of. Also, IF and/or when NHC starts Edouard/FAY??? mid week and confidently-reliably projects QPF impact here (still easily could be an unnamed low), we may want a separate topic from what is potentially going to develop Monday afternoon through Thursday. Think the indicators are continuing in some of the 12z/5 modeling for an active-heavy QPF Mon-Thu in parts of NY metro (including parts of LI-WAA). SPC HREF has potential for 1"+ thunderstorms near or south of I80 Monday afternoon-evening (HREF mean qpf is less) responding to increased CAPE/PWAT and the associated instability burst, with a little 850 flow kink modeled toward our area. and below from SPC regarding Monday potential: ...Southern NY/western PA and the Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... Modest vertical shear will exist across the region on Monday afternoon/evening, with strong flow and forcing for ascent focused further to the north over New England as a shortwave trough shifts eastward and eventually offshore. However, a very moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F common. Strong heating (high temps 85-95) will result in steep low level lapse rates and MLCAPE values from 2000-3000 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates also will be steeper thanks to cooling aloft associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. As a result, clusters of thunderstorms capable of sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible during the afternoon and evening.

The future briefly per use of some of the modeling info: Continues interesting for me/NYC forum. I think lots of rain... isolated ~4" by Thursday evening in a couple of spots of NNJ/se NYS? WPC 00z/5 products are starting to move in the right direction...increasing amounts but not everyone is getting more than 1/2" by Thursday night. WARM front is the focus and it's not only afternoon/evening, but some unleashing of potential during the overnight. Late today: possible isolated decent thunderstorm, I think mainly sw CT drifting toward LI. Trough reinforcement. Monday late afternoon evening: I believe the GFS convection. PWAT CAPE-KI will be increasing. More attempted details tomorrow but GEFS has easy 2000+ sfc CAPE modeled near I78. Tuesday-Tuesday night: Warm front should be quite active. PWAT increasing to between 1.75-2". Looks interesting to me. Wet microbursts (SVR) possible? Wednesday afternoon-evening: remnant warm front, PWAT-CAPE still up. Still some torrents around. Thursday: CAP 700-500MB may develop, but if not...then I think we tend to see convection primarily north of I80 (extreme nw NJ-se NYS-CT) but drifting southeast as the warm front to our south should have dissipated northeastward ahead of the subtropical low(see NHC X this morning and it's projected path). Friday and weekend: Eventual 2+ PWAT and unloading torrents either from the subtropical low itself (track-timing uncertain to me as per operational cycles of GFS/EC/GGEM/UK), or the cold front developing eastward with the Great Lakes trough and focusing heavy convection late Saturday or Sunday? I hope this is a good week for those enjoying the benefits of convection. 706A/5

Commenting on the early Sunday morning activity NJ coast that had a few showers, even over w LI. Nothing analyzed for a trigger that I could see in OKX/PHI early AFD's. Only comment is the GFS. It is my favorite for convective potential (even the overnight operational HRRR missed this; SPC HREF -12z/4/00z/5 had an idea but too far inland). It (GFS) may be spatially a little too large but if it pumps up something, best to evaluate and consider all the reasons why it won't happen, before dismissing. GFS was flagging this a little bit, back to the 12z/4 cycle (tropical tidbits previous runs verifying 12z/5).

Wantage NJ ~8 s High Point just tipped 0.02" with our 310P shower, T in the 202P shower. We'll take it. 81/73 at 313P EDT July 4.

Good Saturday morning everyone, Hope you're safely celebrating! I've little change to my early Friday post except to flag Monday's convective risk as potentially occurring near or south of I78, bit it's too early for me to throw in the towel for Monday. In the meantime, I can still see something here in nw NJ this afternoon, not real big but an interrupting shower or thunderstorm. Still high dew points. Had 0.21" last evening around 7PM. Will look more closely Sunday morning on next weeks activity. Adding some of the verification for yesterday on the Friday event topic. Would like to find max rainfall... I am quite sure over 2.5" in CT. I haven't had time to review all the updates in the past 24 hours but any reports over 2"--please toss em in- thanks!. 601A/4

Good Friday morning - July 3. NYC metro forum area. Plenty of southeastward slow moving convective afternoon or evening action next week in differential WAA, but each day, some parts will miss. (had 0.01 shower around 3-4P Thursday but nothing of the southward moving severe in eastern NYS last eve). Saturday: if anything, associated with leftover RH and 500MB rough, forenoon-early afternoon showers or thunderstorms nw NJ developing southward (from Orange County NYS) Sunday: if anything looks very late in the day and northwest of the city?? Monday: Better chance for torrents but modeling seems to delay till around or after 6P. PWAT comes back up to 1.6". Of interest is that these storms (presuming they develop) will be moving about as fast as those of this Friday afternoon July 3, due to fairly decent nw flow at mid-upper levels. Would not surprise to see iso SVR. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons: "provided there are lift features" (check surface isobars/winds when we get to the day and also modeled 850MB vorticity), should be some big stuff as EC/GFS modeled CAPE/KI go up (2000+J, KI near 36). Should be noted EC cape from 00z/3 has shifted to the northern edge of NYC metro (just n of NYC) while GFS is overhead. Still confident of activity developing overhead or to our north and drifting southeastward. These will be in a slow moving wind field and so potential exists for narrow bands of 1-3" rainfall each day, presuming storms develop in what should be a streamy environment of heat indices near 100F. I don't see a cap...though it might be close on Thursday. Friday and beyond: not commenting since models diverge considerably on treatment of this weekends Gulf coast low (Fl Panhandle-Mississippi coast) becoming a subtropical development moving northeastward from the Carolina coast. GFS is yesterdays operational EC while todays (00z/3) operational EC and GGEM were further north and a bit slower than cycles from 00z/2. With no obvious cap evident next week, it's a matter of lift features, yielding bands of strong storms and daily "isolated" SVR in a generally warmer than normal increasingly large PWAT with 90s heat M-Thu (ne NJ -Morris-Hudson counties area). Where the best action... differs each day and no guarantee every day but to me it looks fairly potent, especially with, I think, a boundary lurking nearby (tonights coming back north but possibly reinforced by thunderstorm outflow to be quasi -stationary nearby into the middle of next week?). 651A EDT/3

Good Thursday morning - July 2. NYC forum area. Plenty of southeastward slow moving convective afternoon or evening action the next week or so in differential WAA, but each day, some parts will miss. This afternoon...less unstable so a couple of showers or storms possible but my guess mostly out of se NYS into NNJ? Friday afternoon-evening: SPC marginal risk. Looks reasonable for a few torrents/iso SVR. Saturday: if anything, looks way west of NYC? Sunday: if anything looks very late in the day and northwest of the city? Monday: Better chance for torrents. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons: "provided there are lift features", should be some big stuff as EC modeled CAPE/KI go up (2000+J, KI near 36) Friday and beyond: not commenting since models diverge considerably on treatment of se USA into the Atlantic low. No cap evident next week and so it's a matter of lift features, yielding bands of strong storms and daily "isolated" SVR in a generally warmer than normal increasingly large PWAT with near 90F heat M-Thu. Where the best action... differs each day. 615A EDT/2

Will post more more coherently Thursday morning, regarding the potential of the Friday, Monday-Friday workweek events of next week (looks like to me like at least 3, if not 4 more afternoons of thunderstorms between Fridays the 3rd-10th-not necessarily severe but won't surprise at isolated severe wet microbursts, despite lackluster wind fields aloft. Cape/KI/PWAT related and any boundaries.