wdrag

Hi. The following 3 images support Don's morning post (Feb 6-28). Warmer than normal and probably less than normal snow in an above normal precip pattern. In good health, we can discuss and for that I am thankful, despite the poor eastern USA winter. 445P/31

No question its warm around this warm, possibly similar Feb week two as well... there is frequently a BUT. From a forecaster perspective, 12F above normal down here is still a low of 27 in Sussex County NJ... and IF with precip, that would be ice. Timing timing? We'll see if the predominant warm modeling down to the I84 corridor survives between Feb 5-7. Worthy of monitoring for a while, til this too is not possible. That's my concern...ice down to I84 from time to time Feb 5-7 in this still anomalously warm pattern. Gotta run, Walt 850A/31

Good bye warm January, and from what I can tell, it's a warm February, though hopefully not as anomalously warm as January 2020. My guess is that some of us will be excited to see a few flakes of snow in the air by Monday morning Feb 3, at least in the northwest suburbs where a slightest covering might occur in a few locations. Make this, another good day. 606A/31

Good Thursday morning (Jan 30) everyone, Feb 1 event ensembles for many many days apparently has faded, at least the coastal fringe portion. Not much to talk about for NYC metro = Feb 1. The 7th-17th models an active southern stream but whether any of these northeastward moving qpf events have enough cold air for wintry precip here is debatable. These are opportunities but the way winter has occurred since ~ Dec 22... we might not be able to spruce up the landscape with much snow? Make this a good day, no matter what. 521A/30

Good Wednesday morning (Jan 29) everyone, Opportunity continues for a little wet snow Saturday-February 1 on the northern fringe of a rapidly developing coastal. Plenty of uncertainty including boundary layer temps for any accumulation (even rain) along I95 (NYC), and qpf. Looks to be a minimal event but the plumes from the GEFS offer a little bit of snow to NYC and the entire I84 corridor. The NAEFS which shifted southeastward yesterday remains static there, but EPS is a little more robust, and certainly more robust than the GEFS-but still minor at this point. No graphics at this time - conservative approach due to uncertainties 72 hours in advance and at worst minimal impact to travel. 1127z/29.

Feb 1: Flip-flopping ensemble QPFs. Uncertainty with the 00z/28 NAEFS a diminished qpf for our area, the 00/28z EPS continues with an event, albeit boundary layer accumulation problems for NYC while the 00z/28 GEFS was very conservative on QPF. Proceeding with uncertainty but I expect an event of some sort for Feb 1. Best chance for snow accumulation seems high terrain N and W of NYC. No graphics today due to lack of ensemble consensus. 00z/28 GEFS plumes still have snow acc for NYC and POU but am a little concerned about boundary layer warmth for NYC (melting). Also, phasing if any, seems delayed-further east in the GEFS while the EPS sharpens the trough further west than it did yesterday. Sometimes we have to wait til about 72 hours in advance of the date before the models grasp the sharpness of a short wave and/or any phasing option. I would think the 00z/29 cycle should have a little more consensus. In any case... whatever occurs does not seem to be blockbuster... too fast...only a 12 hour event? Hopeful only notes: am thinking a storm track from the lower Miss Valley into the northeast Feb 7-17 but whether we have enough cold air available and timed correctly? This is based on NAEFS overall changes in N American temp distribution and both EPS/GEFS showing an active southern stream in the 500MB pattern, along with QPF production. Then Don's note on stratwarm potential from late yesterday, tho any stratwarm implications around here might be delayed a month? 608A/28

Good Monday morning (Jan 27), I'm dropping these graphics in for possible future look back. Ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GGEM) continue to suggest an event for our area, tho I think the option for a very close warmer-rainier track exists, unless we lose the potential for a closed low in the northeast. MOS is not that cold but cold enough for snow if the needle is threaded favorably. ?? The first two graphics are GEFS plumes for LGA and POU. The bold line is the mean which is biased higher by several 6+" members. Still it's a start. The 3rd graphic is the 00z/27 NAEFS which now show shows a northward spread of the 5MM (0.2") isohyet and not much variability in the northeast. Finally, one of my favorite charts...the MRF ensemble mean 500 flow, and its members. The white lines on the right are the 00z/GFS(=MRF) member and you can see the many individual blue members at 12z/2 even sharper down here into the northeast. Promising, but quite far in advance. What concerns me is the potential for a second sfc low to our north (NYS) in all that strong vorticity advection. That would potentially warm us up ~850MB, above zero? I wont be posting again til tomorrow morning ~7A, provided ensembles continue with an event. 559A/27

Good Sunday evening everyone, I think Feb 1 has been targeted by the ensembles since ~00z/18. That's why i posted directly to this thread since it's a Feb event thread. The usual questions related to this winter are... does it end up stronger, further north and warmer-rainier, or does the predominantly grazing grouping of both the EPS, GEFS, NAEFS prevail? I'd love to see some blocking in ne Canada or a 50/50 low w blocking in Greenland but that is not likely. I'll post these 18z/26 GEFS plumes here for a possible look back when 18z/Feb 2 rolls around and whatever has occurred. I also added the NAEFS which is the GEFS and GGEM ensemble members combined. It too seems to show a grazer, albeit 12 hours slower (late Feb1-Feb 2). There's also variability in SNE (mm) as you can see from the legend. 759P/Jan 26

No further post from myself yet... would like to see GEFS snow plumes a touch higher for LGA before getting NYC group amped a bit. Lack of cold air in advance is a big concern so that this is a marginal thermal situation. Seems like EPS and GEFS stayed the same or trended down slightly (model noise and insignificant?) on snowfall but this is still a consistent signal for the I84 corridor itself to continue monitoring. Just having doubts south of I80 in NJ. There will be much much better scenarios in future winters, maybe later this winter, but will take what we can eek out from this winter. Will not post again til tomorrow morning 7AM. Later, Walt

Curious what prompted the EURO comment? Thanks, Walt

Holding off on starting this as a topic (25th-26th) till i see a little better chance for an inch or 2 of snow LI... i do think this is something to watch. Great Lakes low with a possible secondary L to the mid Atlantic coast. Marginal temps for snow-ice in an above normal temp regime during the coldest time of the year. Maps posted are several LR tools... stats. Only rather low chance of ensembles 3+ I84 corridor at this time. Nicely modeled (GFS version) confluence zone se Canada giving us a chance of a sfc high to the north and definite good 500 mb jet structure for an event...but is it all rain. Lets see what happens. AT 654AM I added the GEFS plumes for LGA. Right now its at 1" of snow. There 00z/13 GEFS LGA plumes had 4" of snow with over 1" qpf. 00z/14 onward, LGA was in the 1.5-2.5 mean for Yesterdays event, which I think is excellent consistency. I expect the GEFS/EPS is going to continue with near 1" qpf for this coming event and its a matter of trends on snowfall. I still want to see 12z/19 EPS/GEFS probs for 3+ inches next weekend before comitting. It's still possible for all rain LI, especially with our winter in progress. No rush here... savoring yesterdays south-southwest wind bonus. 659A/19