wdrag

Just had an interesting experience. (Nice to have a day off when this happens.) Our home and the one next door... at about 850AM.... with temp at 32.4 but sun shining on the roofs... melted the snow which suddenly broke through marginal dams and cascaded-spilled into downspouts and onto the porch roof below.

Don, I like stats and I expect you will be right... but am a little concerned in short term that all the excessive warmth is still within the snow-ice threshold window. Also, i don't like seeing the EPO being forecast consistently negative as I see AK is trending warmer both aloft and the surface, via the anomalies as you posted and and the NAEFS as well. This shall be interesting for ice events I84 region northward the next two-three weeks as a storm track from the southern Plains into the northeast exists, with multiple events already modeled and a very warm southern USA fighting for dominance against a normally cold southern Canada. Also, it seems to the polar vortex is slowly shifting southeastward out of the arctic and not quite sure how the AO is forecast so darn strong? This is probably my error in viewing the hemispheric pattern? For us, timing the departing cold highs to our northeast will be critical for ice, vs rain knowing I95 NYC southward probably is cooked for any significant snow.

Good Sunday morning everyone, Wantage NJ 0.4" 230A-530A. Season now 17.1" Just salted the roads here at 700'MSL. Here's my thinking this afternoon-evening... based on strong WAA with pretty FGEN in eastern PA late today weakening as it transits east to NYC-BOS so that pretty good snowfall out in ne PA/extreme nw NJ weakens eastward and probably melts NYC. If the FGEN shows sign of improvement for NYC I'll add the graphic later today. Snow redevelops this afternoon in ne PA between 2-3PM and spreads into nw NJ around 4P, diminishing to flurries or freezing rain sprinkles around 11PM. Should see between 1/2-2" with the snow coming down at a pretty good rate around sundown with untreated slippery roads developing in high terrain---more so than the impact of early this morning. Heaviest snow probably Pike County to northern Wantage-Vernon-High Point where I think an inch is likely, despite NWS and EPS statistics not very enthusiastic for 1". I'm pretty sure we have significant ice threat (glaze with front end snow-sleet totals probably under 3") for the I84 region into nw NJ Thursday. NYC might have a touch of snow/sleet but statistically not promising for much if any of both. Wind briefly above 45 MPH may be a problem for NYC-LI Friday. The ice and wind threats for Thu-Fri have been signaled for several days by the various models, with latitude of the primary impacts showing some variability. Timing could of both could be a player in cancels-delays. 715A/2

This continues to be pretty exciting for us up here in nw NJ, considering the winter in progress. 0.4" at 508A. Some of this is coming to the NYC northern suburbs now. Enjoy every minutes of this. Poor picture from my I8 but here is is. mPing reporting from up here.

No separate thread for this minor on-going event here in nw NJ but just saying: Wantage NJ at 430A/2 0.2" snowing steadily small flakes. all surfaces covered except roads wet with some covered spots. 32/30. This is a GFS miss. NAM and all other non GFS models had this minor early Sunday event. Am thrilled for seeing early morning minor snowfall. Yesterdays 0.1" had melted by 9a. Cheers from the hills of nw NJ 740'MSL.

Good morning, Wantage NJ had 0.1" snow last evening 830-930P. It melts today but am pretty sure many of us will see a little wet snow late tonight-early Sunday and possibly again late Sunday afternoon or evening. Minor accums probably restricted to the suburbs north and west. I wont be surprised to see a new 1/2 or even 1 inch total in hilly terrain of nw NJ by 11PM Sunday. Haven't started a thread since its nothing much, and occurs the beginning of Feb so this thread works. Pretty strong northern stream short wave passage early Sunday, the one that didn't phase with the southeastern USA short wave... followed by rather strong warm advection Sunday evening, are the probable event drivers for our area. As it turns out, while the multi modeled ensembles (EPS/GEFS) since ~the 18th of January pegging ~Feb 1 were much too heavy on QPF, it seems their signal wont end up a total bust with minor snow nw suburbs and just about everyone in our forum coverage area having had measurable precipitation between 8PM last night (31st) and 11PM Sunday Feb 2. 605A/1

Wantage NJ Final for 1/31: 0.1" snowfall ~830-930P time frame Jan 31. 16.7" for the season.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. snowing lightly. melting on contact 34F. 832P/31

Hi. The following 3 images support Don's morning post (Feb 6-28). Warmer than normal and probably less than normal snow in an above normal precip pattern. In good health, we can discuss and for that I am thankful, despite the poor eastern USA winter. 445P/31

No question its warm around this warm, possibly similar Feb week two as well... there is frequently a BUT. From a forecaster perspective, 12F above normal down here is still a low of 27 in Sussex County NJ... and IF with precip, that would be ice. Timing timing? We'll see if the predominant warm modeling down to the I84 corridor survives between Feb 5-7. Worthy of monitoring for a while, til this too is not possible. That's my concern...ice down to I84 from time to time Feb 5-7 in this still anomalously warm pattern. Gotta run, Walt 850A/31

Good bye warm January, and from what I can tell, it's a warm February, though hopefully not as anomalously warm as January 2020. My guess is that some of us will be excited to see a few flakes of snow in the air by Monday morning Feb 3, at least in the northwest suburbs where a slightest covering might occur in a few locations. Make this, another good day. 606A/31

Good Thursday morning (Jan 30) everyone, Feb 1 event ensembles for many many days apparently has faded, at least the coastal fringe portion. Not much to talk about for NYC metro = Feb 1. The 7th-17th models an active southern stream but whether any of these northeastward moving qpf events have enough cold air for wintry precip here is debatable. These are opportunities but the way winter has occurred since ~ Dec 22... we might not be able to spruce up the landscape with much snow? Make this a good day, no matter what. 521A/30

Good Wednesday morning (Jan 29) everyone, Opportunity continues for a little wet snow Saturday-February 1 on the northern fringe of a rapidly developing coastal. Plenty of uncertainty including boundary layer temps for any accumulation (even rain) along I95 (NYC), and qpf. Looks to be a minimal event but the plumes from the GEFS offer a little bit of snow to NYC and the entire I84 corridor. The NAEFS which shifted southeastward yesterday remains static there, but EPS is a little more robust, and certainly more robust than the GEFS-but still minor at this point. No graphics at this time - conservative approach due to uncertainties 72 hours in advance and at worst minimal impact to travel. 1127z/29.

Feb 1: Flip-flopping ensemble QPFs. Uncertainty with the 00z/28 NAEFS a diminished qpf for our area, the 00/28z EPS continues with an event, albeit boundary layer accumulation problems for NYC while the 00z/28 GEFS was very conservative on QPF. Proceeding with uncertainty but I expect an event of some sort for Feb 1. Best chance for snow accumulation seems high terrain N and W of NYC. No graphics today due to lack of ensemble consensus. 00z/28 GEFS plumes still have snow acc for NYC and POU but am a little concerned about boundary layer warmth for NYC (melting). Also, phasing if any, seems delayed-further east in the GEFS while the EPS sharpens the trough further west than it did yesterday. Sometimes we have to wait til about 72 hours in advance of the date before the models grasp the sharpness of a short wave and/or any phasing option. I would think the 00z/29 cycle should have a little more consensus. In any case... whatever occurs does not seem to be blockbuster... too fast...only a 12 hour event? Hopeful only notes: am thinking a storm track from the lower Miss Valley into the northeast Feb 7-17 but whether we have enough cold air available and timed correctly? This is based on NAEFS overall changes in N American temp distribution and both EPS/GEFS showing an active southern stream in the 500MB pattern, along with QPF production. Then Don's note on stratwarm potential from late yesterday, tho any stratwarm implications around here might be delayed a month? 608A/28

Good Monday morning (Jan 27), I'm dropping these graphics in for possible future look back. Ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GGEM) continue to suggest an event for our area, tho I think the option for a very close warmer-rainier track exists, unless we lose the potential for a closed low in the northeast. MOS is not that cold but cold enough for snow if the needle is threaded favorably. ?? The first two graphics are GEFS plumes for LGA and POU. The bold line is the mean which is biased higher by several 6+" members. Still it's a start. The 3rd graphic is the 00z/27 NAEFS which now show shows a northward spread of the 5MM (0.2") isohyet and not much variability in the northeast. Finally, one of my favorite charts...the MRF ensemble mean 500 flow, and its members. The white lines on the right are the 00z/GFS(=MRF) member and you can see the many individual blue members at 12z/2 even sharper down here into the northeast. Promising, but quite far in advance. What concerns me is the potential for a second sfc low to our north (NYS) in all that strong vorticity advection. That would potentially warm us up ~850MB, above zero? I wont be posting again til tomorrow morning ~7A, provided ensembles continue with an event. 559A/27

Good Sunday evening everyone, I think Feb 1 has been targeted by the ensembles since ~00z/18. That's why i posted directly to this thread since it's a Feb event thread. The usual questions related to this winter are... does it end up stronger, further north and warmer-rainier, or does the predominantly grazing grouping of both the EPS, GEFS, NAEFS prevail? I'd love to see some blocking in ne Canada or a 50/50 low w blocking in Greenland but that is not likely. I'll post these 18z/26 GEFS plumes here for a possible look back when 18z/Feb 2 rolls around and whatever has occurred. I also added the NAEFS which is the GEFS and GGEM ensemble members combined. It too seems to show a grazer, albeit 12 hours slower (late Feb1-Feb 2). There's also variability in SNE (mm) as you can see from the legend. 759P/Jan 26

Now a wrap on state of the northern tier USA and the past 3 days. Three attachments are: 1) Past 72 hours snowfall...mostly midwest and spotty high terrain 4's n NYS and northern NE through 12z/26. 2) How we stood on snow depth this morning with respect to climo 3) Seasonal snowfall so far

That worked...wasn't aware. MUCH appreciated! Walt

Hi, I noticed in an attempt to wrap-up that I cannot post any images to the 1/25/20 event thread (limit is very tiny). Why is that? (Max total size 0.17MB). I might not understand image attachment posting processes. Thanks, Walt

Wantage NJ 923A. Rb ~around 9A. 32.9/30.6. noting ice pellets and freezing reports just northwest Wilkes Barree. Glaze at MPO now .07. This may be one of my last reports on this for Wantage, unless wet bulging permits a slight glaze on something which I doubt at 740'MSL.

Good Saturday morning everyone, I am well aware of the massive failure of wet snow in the northeast today-midwest doing ok. The modeling was correct at least a week in advance targeting a significant event for the ne USA on this date. Model thermal fields this past Monday-Tuesday were far too cold (associated with track of 500MB low being far too far south and slower to track into the ne USA). However, ice is now occurring in parts of ne PA high terrain above 1200 feet. Includes Mount Pocono (.04 glaze so far) and Dingmans-the latter in Pike County with a temperature of ~30F. So, I will add a graphic which is the HREF and best model this morning on ice...bar none that we commonly see (exclusive of EPIC which I dont see). Treated roads will probably be okay in extreme nw NJ and ne PA but a period of glaze is coming to the high terrain there this morning. Rainfall rates will be so heavy that most of it will drip off the trees. Here in Wantage NJ at 740'MSL am holding at 33.3F with a td of 28 and no pcpn yet...a north-northeast wind at 812 AM. (One other note edited in at 830 AM Not sure if anyone was looking in n IL/WI modeled rain snow last night. GFS was too warm in the BL completely missing the change to snow out there last evening RFD/MKE/ORD. Tropical tidbits will still have those runs from 12z/18z-24.

Good Thursday morning everyone (Jan 23), My last post on this thread, unless I get lucky to have an observation of wintry precip Saturday morning in extreme nw NJ. System has once again warmed northward and only a brief period of front side minor accumulative snow ice seems possible Saturday morning around sunrise, above 1500 feet. Need to make the best of a poor winter for snow-ice in these parts. 543A/23.

Good Wednesday morning everyone reading this, (Jan 22). I'll add the NWS graphic (first image) produced probably prior to the 00z/22 GFS and EC portion of the ensembles. It's a little more optimistic than the 00z/22 GEFS/EPS, however, I can see those ensemble probabilities for 3+ inches of snow increasing a bit. If they do not increase by this time tomorrow, then the I84 corridor high terrain snow and some ice would probably be limited to elevations above 1500 feet. In other words, virtually all of the NYC forum (2nd image added, courtesy of our moderators) a non player. Before jumping onto that downside no significant snow event, my thoughts. 1) The ECMWF has been quite varied the past two cycles. I'm not convinced of its (EPS) northerly latitude of the 500MB track, the 00z/22 GEFS being further south. 2) The UKMET, while a little bit odd (see 3rd graphic), does end up with the 500 Low near the GEFS position by 12z/Sunday.... but how it gets there is a little more intriguing...it drives a negative tilt lobe eastward across DC before lifting newd. That would allow for a little more cold air damming of marginally cold enough snow thermal profile (inland terrain). I am just unsure whether the UK is realistic. 3) I 'think' the NAM is backing off a little on its wound up 500 Low over IL at 72-84 hrs and if this later development continues eastward the next 6 forecast cycles, then I think we're looking at a high terrain wet snow event, with impact down to POU and FWN as of course MPO/MSV. GFS extended MOS is still pretty cold. 4) Strong UVM during midday Saturday in the distant nw suburbs (ne PA and extreme nw NJ) may change freezing rain and rain to a period wet accumulative snow. As it stands now, portions of the high terrain in the interior northeast north of I80 in PA northeastward (parts of NYS, northern and western New England) are in position to see 6" of snow while little if any is expected-modeled for NYC. I think its a bit early (4 days in advance) to say this storm won't present significant winter hazards at times this weekend down into the I84 high terrain. 648A/22

Thanks for the map .. all replies have and are helpful. Much thanks to all the replies herein. Walt

Agreed.... just need to be patient. 06z/21 500 ensembles and snowfall in for the GEFS. Just need to be patient and look for negatives. I'd like to see the GGEM become a little snowier again... ditto the EC. Still... fairly impressive snowfall forecast in the raw GEFS/EPS for the region n of I80 later this week and weekend. Have a good day, Walt