wdrag

No need to cancel this thread... no one is excited by it. However, keeping it going... will be a probable near miss for the coasts. The storm hasn't departed yet. I can live with a miss since it was always projected uncertain. IF it does snow coastal NJ and LI... it sticks. Don't give up yet s shore Li and coastal NJ, especially if pressure adjustments permit a north surface wind and a bit of NNE boundary layer trajectory late tomorrow. Right now, not.

Will add some CoCoRaHs maps at 10A for snowfall. Canadian-RGEM too robust-amped and tucked in I95 west though that's where the heaviest occurred. EC AI was helpful. I want to check melted w.e. at 10A as well. This also takes a chunk of confidence away from the dry EPS weeklies- here is what was available to us at initial thread time on the 11th...pretty depressing EPS dry swath ne USA for the 13th-20th. Just tells me the that guidance beyond 5 days is shaky on qpf. Fortunate to get this one more or less right at D8. Impact up here for most of the NYC subforum I think was generally moderate for a few hours... briefly high where it snowed at 1+/hr and temps were falling below freezing at sunset Sunday. I did check flightaware and google maps for flight cancels and roads in and around NYC. More at 10AM

The very minor event the night of the 21st-early22nd along the coast might be more of CFP with steep lapse rates, decent snow growth snow showers, rather than the nw fringe of the departing se USA storm. For now lets keep it going. Have seen the 24th possible event but no action til late Monday at the earliest. It does seem to have possibilities of eventually looking as a nice snow event but holding off at least 24 hours - 8PM Monday the 20th, til it looks better with all modeling. Then the sw USA closed 5H low next weekend will eventually send some GMEX moisture newd toward us as the 5H low moves bodily to the Easton the Rockies or splits eastward with ptype issues?

Wantage NJ (this part) 4.2 at 7P.

Have some confidence. N shore of LI will do well... might see some 4 and 5s...not done there til at least 1A.

In a little defense of the NWS... they work within the mapping constraints that are set by NWS region-nationally. The forecast team answers your ph calls, including reports, they keep the forecasts updated as much as they can and then its out of their hands when all the updates transmit. They keep the emergency managers updated including government officials. Its sundown now and temps generally below freezing NJT westward into PA with wintry precip, mostly snow and some of that at rapid rates. If you go out in the next few hours and slide off the road or slip on the sidewalk, they did all they could to advise you. Forecasts are imperfect and sometimes forecasts are less than desired but I suggest ride this one out through 8PM.

Mt Pocono area 2.5". my space in southern Wantage NJ 5P report 1/19/25. 2.5". Includes 1.7" snow increase past hour. 26F. Have seen a remark of over 3" in another part of Wantage.

now 0.8 and 1/2S

VERY NICE!! way ahead of the part of the SC where only near 1/2".

4 MTR sites with 1/4 S+ in se PA now...should advance ne next several hours. have had very little the past 90 min. stuck near .4" so far in Wantage NJ. Other places se of Wantage in NJ doing better.

No changing dates at this time. I know we have one possible 24-25 but still can see a grazer Central southern NJ e LI. Never played this up but it's out there, especially tomorrow once we get through tonights mess. Thanks for waiting it out with me.

Hope everyone knows it's going to be an inch an hour I95 corridor for several hours 3P-9P. I see 1/4 S+ at Altoona recently and nice bands developing in e PA. Enjoy... you have a ways to go for snow on pavement but I think it will get out of control slippery in the that sundown to 10P stretch... temps falling with occasional brief heavy snow 1/4S+. One accident and its not pretty. Just good that this is a holiday weekend. Had a T in Wantage at 1P but now 0.3" 150P. Just got back from a family RT to Atlanta Friday Noon to today 10A. Catching up. I kind of think anyone complaining about less than 6" of snow should be happy instead of sad. SPC HREF VERY consistent past 3 cycles. It and CSI banding daily the region I95=I84 with large snowfall increases. Not sure if anyone spotty SPCHREF past 2 cycles 8+ parts of interior se NYS. Complaining about the Canadian...I want to wait for the results first and then we can evaluate tomorrow morning via CoCoRaHs or whatever you wish.

I think your RGEM pronouncements are premature. It was the first model to signal big... its southeast move might 50 miles but it is locked. While I may. be wrong I'm planning on big doings nw of I95 including large snowfall frigates and higher ratios. You should start seeing spotty 1/4S+ e PA near 3PM. offline now.

That's ok... most of that will probably fall in a 4 hr period within the 12 hr snowfall. Am leaving it to all of you to figure it out. Just glad something is happening, even if the CANADIAN axis was too far west ditto their positive snow depth axis. This will be a healthy storm with nnw wind gusts on LI 30-35 MPH I think by midnight Sunday night.

Hi! Looks like a brief period of 2"/hr snowfall rates near the green circles, se NYS near 6P, and a period of general 1"/hr snowfall rates 3P-9P along and west of I95. Please see attached WPC HREF snowband members, and the HREF green 6" swath from the 12z/18 cycle (old news?) and the general NWS snowfall prediction as available from their databases at 3PM, plus their odds on various thresholds at CP

Very simple thread that may not produce for most of our NYC subforum but LI and south of I80 in NJ seem threatened. Again, this may be a null event for us but am sure it will have some conversation in what is our last half of January series of wintry opportunities. At 917A added 00z/18 CMCE, 00z and 06z/18 EPS and no GEFS since it was snow free this far northwest

I agree.. am away but will consider a thread for this late today or tomorrow.

You're very welcome as all. We're going to have to see the NAM get on board... this is bothersome for me. 06z EC not as robust as I expected but nonetheless... CP west-north is in the game. Make it happen NY... I don't want 40 pages of 1/2" in CP. It's been the usual interest for tracking Lets do a better than an inch.

Good Friday morning. everyone. No new 1/21-22 thread nor a 1/24-25 thread. Uncertainties and think we have enough to look at for 1/19.

NWS ensemble probabilities issued this morning for various minimum thresholds of snow. These are pretty high for D3. I hope this works out ok. Much of eastern LI might be suppressed to an inch or so by rain and milder temps. You'll know better. Am off-line much of the next 3 days.

In case anyone was looking. No second thread from me for the 22nd, but another pretty decent short wave at the bottom of the departing polar vortex moving ne of the Great Lakes will whip through here. For now, not worth a fringe outlook but will revisit tomorrow morning. I'm more interested in the 24th which will clearly have backing flow up the east coast as the PV moves to Baffin Bay Area. Not starting a thread for that till more consensus and its 8 days away but it looks fairly juicy to me. Will recheck Friday as time allows.

No second thread for the 22nd, but just so you know another pretty decent short wave at the bottom of the departing polar vortex moving ne of the Great Lakes will whip through here. For now, not worth a fringe outlook but will revisit tomorrow morning. I'm more interested in the 24th which will clearly have backing flow up the east coast as the PV moves to Baffin Bay Area. Not starting a thread for that till more consensus and its 8 days away but it looks fairly juicy to me. Will recheck Friday as time allows.

Wantage NJ 0.2" at 7P small flake snow still in progress.

New thread delayed til 7P. Hope that’s. It a problem

Just updated thread title Discussion-OBS minor-mdt 1-7" slippery impact 7-14 hr snowstorm mainly btwn Noon Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. Heaviest axis near or just inland I95. New thread for next unknown snow amount event with a large range from fringe 1" to at least moderate 1/22-early 1/24 begins about 530PM. Our 1/19 event that the NAM is trying to find for the first time in its 18z/16 cycle is fairly well produced now by all other modeling with the axis of greatest accumulation still a bit uncertain but seems to be shaping up near or just west of I95 to possibly as far northwest as I84. I added 7" in the title because I'm pretty sure we can see a stripe of 7" but where. C park????? may see its first 4" snowfall since 1/29/22 (thanks to our XMACIS experts). There should be some pretty good banding for a few hours near or after sundown Sunday, and for now seems to locate near or west of I95. Snow ratios should be a little higher in the colder air. You have the ensembles and we'll see how this works out. Had a bottom number 1". It's possible that the Island might have some melting and also a little rain so cant promise there, but this looks to me like we'll see snow everywhere, just how much. Above freezing temps I95 corridor eastward permit melting on contact during the afternoon I95 corridor and LI but after sundown, presuming its snowing, travel conditions can deteriorate rapidly. The good news is that Monday is our Martin Luther King holiday and Inauguration Day so traffic should be less. WPC midday significant snow map attached. The post events temps should still concentrate on the January thread. I'd like to see the 18z GFS regarding the second event which has a pretty good chance of getting fringe snowfall up here 22nd-23rd. That one wont thread til about 530 PM.