weathermedic

In their morning AFD, Upton said watches will be put out with either the evening forecast update tonight or Thu morning's update.

If the location of the arctic high pressure is situated properly with the cold air draining down the Hudson Valley into NYC, that is usually how the city gets cold quicker and stays cold rather than on a northwesterly flow

Ice totals increased as of this morning's updated map.

Light snow now here in Sheepshead Bay. Looks like any accumulating snow is just about done. Have 11 inches here.

From Twitter: Mike Rizzo @Meteor_Mike Ok, that's enough now. Please stop. Yes, the nor'easter 'spawned' another disturbance offshore that's reinforcing some of the snow. (It won't until 3PM - then blowing snow and bitter cold). @News12BX @News12BK

18 degrees with moderate snow. Wind gusted to 34 mph. 8 inches as of 8:30am away from the 2 foot drifts.

From Twitter. ULL looks like it's trying to form east of NJ

Models that depicted two centers of circulation were not that far off from this pic

Seeing several spotter reports of winds in the 50-60 mph range in eastern Suffolk

Just looking at traffic cams, you can see the difference from Manhattan which has much better visibility than Brooklyn and Queens and across Long Island. https://511ny.org/map#TransitRegion-8

Lightning increasing off the coast of North Carolina. Low pressure starting to get it's act together.

Blizzard warning for Suffolk County.

From OKX AFD: Have converted all winter weather watches to warnings, and issued a winter weather advisory for Orange County, NY with all this in mind. In addition, have elected to hold off on any blizzard headlines at this time for eastern LI and southern CT, the areas that are most likely to meet blizzard criteria. Given the increased forecast confidence in only these latest runs, would prefer one more cycle for that upgrade. Regardless, near blizzard conditions are possible for eastern LI and southern CT for a period on Saturday afternoon with this system. Winds will also be an issue as the system nears the area as strong northeast flow dominates as the system deepens in our vicinity. Gusts to 35-45 mph are likely for a period Saturday afternoon, especially for the coastal areas, where occasionally higher gusts are possible. So near blizzard conditions are possible, especially near the coast, where winds/gusts will be most frequent.

I don't think it was mentioned yet but I could be wrong. I am guessing there will be thundersnow in a few places.

I agree but remember the Boxing Day storm had good ratios and very strong winds but still managed to pile up.

Air recon supposed to take place in the Pacific later today. Don't know if that data will get ingested in time for the 12Z Euro/GFS suite.

They just shut the upper level of the Verrazano Bridge due to the wind.

Latest 1AM OKX AFD: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The latest surface obs and dual pol indicate snow/wintry mix has changed to rain for NYC/NJ metro and coast, with transition expected to work north through the interior overnight as increasing E-SE flow should overwhelm any linger colder air, taking until perhaps 3 to 4 am across Orange County. Some locations received just under an inch before the snow changed to rain in portions of the NYC metro and CT coast. Seeing as much as 3 inches across interior portions of the Lower Hudson Valley based on NYC mesonet, with snowfall rates exceeding 1" hr. Most areas north of I-287 and the Merritt Pkwy will see at least 2 to 3 inches of snow accumulation plus a light glaze of ice, with Orange and W Passaic seeing as much as 4-6 inches of snow especially in the higher elevations, and a few hundredths of an inch of ice. A very tight pres gradient between the sfc low and retreating high pressure out over the Atlantic, and strong upper divergence/lift ahead of a negatively-tilted closed low lifting through the Mid Atlantic region, will produce a band of strong winds and heavy rain between 2 am and 7am from SW to NE. Cant rule out some embedded thunder for LI as well, as noted off the S Jersey coast, as of 1am. E Long Island and coastal SE CT should see a pd of sustained winds 40-45 mph with gusts 60-65 mph, with areas to the west (mainly coastal SW CT, western Long Island, and NYC) seeing winds just shy of those values, sustained 25-35 mph with gusts 45-55 mph. Temps overnight should rise to the upper 40s in the NYC metro area and along the coast, and to the upper 30s/lower 40s inland, except lower to mid 30s far NW areas.

Lightning showing up on radar east of Atlantic City.

Jones Beach Davis station gusted to 51 mph at 1240am

Two areas of interest east of the southern NJ coast on radar

Up to mid-upper 20s at coastal locations already

Up to 31 here in sheepshead bay. Looking like we will be spared any ice down here once the precipitation gets started. By that time temps should be above 32 for a while.

Ground colder and longer duration in the city than last Wednesday. Only difference might be if the precip starts later than last Wed which may give the coast time to get air temps above freezing. Although ground temps will take a while longer. Other difference is that it’s a Sunday morning and should have much less traffic on the roads. One final thing, most NYC roads are full of salt since sanitation was salting yesterday for hours after the snow stopped.