bluewave

I think the last time the Euro seasonal had reasonably good winter forecast from October was 21-22. The forecast from August 21 was a miss. During the October forecast it got the idea of the -PNA correct for December. But the magnitude of the warmth and -PNA depth was way underdone. Probably related to the inability to correctly model the MJO beyond 1-2 weeks out. Then the January forecast was a miss since the MJO 8 wasn’t forecast beyond the late December period. February was reasonably close. Plus the 3 month mean blended together was OK. It wasn’t a mismatch type winter so it didn’t throw the seasonal off like we got last October which we were discussing last year. So probably just wait until we see how the October MJO indicator works out and what the model shows at that point.

The Euro seasonal is going with a delayed start to fall which has become common in recent years.

Just wondering were the seasonal model error will actually be during the winter since we seldom see perfect forecasts from any of the models from this range.

If something resembling that pattern verifies, then elevation and higher latitude will be your friend in the Northeast like we have seen during recent seasons.

I am just commenting on what the model is showing. It’s striking how similar it is to the 500mb pattern we are getting this summer. If we do get a pattern resembling that next winter, then maybe the worst in terms of those strong -PNAs like we had in 21-22 and 22-23 is behind us. But it looks like the model still wants to go with the storm track through the Great Lakes which has been persistent since 18-19.

The Euro has an active storm track through the Great Lakes for the crew in the favored lake effect snow zones.

Yeah, very similar. It goes to the comments I made earlier. There is a disconnect between the higher latitude teleconnections and the mid-latitude pattern. So we still get the subtropical ridge from the Pacific across the U.S. and Atlantic even with the -EPO +PNA.

The Euro has the same winter pattern at 500mb as we are getting this summer. It’s a -EPO +PNA and Southeast Ridge pattern. Pattern persistence or the model is in repeater mode? Stay tuned….

I think the Pacific will continue to be much more important than what the NAO does. The last time we saw a few KU events was back in January 2022 with a solid +NAO pattern. The key was the strong MJO 8 which allowed the Pacific Jet to relax for a month. That was the last time many of us had a cold and snowy month. So we would want to see improvement from the Pacific Jet.

Yeah, we used to do many boat trips across the back bays in Nassau. It’s a whole new world to explore out on the water. The bay houses are fun to see in person rather than at a distance from the shore.

The magnitude of the heat and drought in Canada is much more extensive this time around as the climate continues to warm. Those past events you referenced were normal occurrences back in the colder and more stable climate of the past. What has been occurring in Canada since 2023 is a whole new ballgame. First, we had the historic 500mb ridge over Canada in May 2023 leading to the historic wildfire outbreak and record smoke pollution in places like NYC. This standing wave which drove the drought and fires was related to record warming in parts of the Pacific which helped to lock in the record heat and 500mb ridging in Canada from 2023 to the present. Second, the current global political system is not capable of dealing with all the cascading effects of this rapid warming. So the response will have to be more driven by informed individuals that can make their own personal decisions on how to respond to this new climate.

You are looking at the global temperature jump in linear terms. First, what seems like a small rise in average global temperatures has much more amplified effects regionally. Second, SSTs in some tropical and even subtropical zones areas can cross a threshold where a nonlinear shift occurs. Resulting in standing waves that remain stationary for extended periods leading to very high local to regional warm departures. Unfortunately, there isn’t a guide we can consult which has a set SST level at which the changes will occur. As the climate is warming faster than our modeling technology can keep up with. So many of these shifts are only realized after the fact.

It’s tough when Canada is having record heat and drought and they keep getting all these lightning strikes. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-1.7599568 BC’s fire season is surging as the number of active wildfires more than doubled from 61 on Thursday to 134 by Friday morning, according to the B.C. Wildfire Service (BCWS). The service says the surprising increase in fires can be attributed to the more than 35,000 lightning strikes on July 30 and 31 — with even more expected, as severe thunderstorm watches remained in place on Friday for a large swatch of the southern Interior and stretching into locations in the northeast.

2nd worst air quality in the world for Toronto following the smokiest July on record in Winnipeg.

The most significant cold in my area over the last decade was 12-26-17 to 1-8-18. It was mostly Pacific driven. This is why my comment about other factors having a greater influence on the Northeast temperatures than the NAO. You can see the generally lower heights over Greenland to Iceland. The best blocking was over Western North America. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY 10 coldest 12-26 to 1-8 periods on record Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1918-01-08 13.4 0 2 2018-01-08 17.9 0 3 1904-01-08 20.6 0 4 1881-01-08 21.9 0 5 1879-01-08 22.2 0 6 1887-01-08 22.4 0 7 1981-01-08 23.7 0 8 1940-01-08 23.9 0 9 1968-01-08 24.2 0 10 1877-01-08 24.6 0

More spots in the CONUS finished with below average snowfall than above average snowfall for the 24-25 season.

You can always find a random spot that does well with snowfall even though the overall CONUS snowfall was below average last winter.

Not as much correlation between the NAO and Northeast temperatures over the last decade or so. February 2015 was our last really cold month and one of the strongest +NAOs. It’s really how the higher latitude teleconnections blend with the subtropical patterns which determine our sensible weather around the Northeast. While you might not consider the changes great, shifting a gradient only hundreds miles north will have a big effect on snowfall and temperatures near where the gradient used to set up. But if you are far enough north and the gradient is still to your south than it isn’t a big deal for you.

Last February was out best -WPO in years but its influence was muted by the stronger subtropical ridge forcing the gradient too far north.

Never said they are ineffective. But the effective gradient does shift north from where it has been. This is why some areas over the Great Lakes and interior Northeast north of the gradient have done better in the snowfall department than the coastal plain.

I fully understand. We all came up in the era when the higher latitude teleconnections ruled the roost and the mid-latitudes generally followed that lead. But we have been seeing more influence from these subtropical ridges over the last decade. So the nuisance you mention is recognizing the larger role for the mid-latitudes. So sometimes the ENSO and higher latitudes take more of a back seat. But everything is having some influence so we can tie together these multiple threads into one coherent pattern.

Looks like a really nice August pattern through the weekend. The warmest departures will miss to our north with onshore flow here. A few warmer days in the low 90s but nothing too extreme. Then other days with the highs in the 80s. Pattern looks pretty dry through at least next weekend. The one negative will be all the smoke from the record Canadian wildfires.

The higher latitude ridge near Greenland was not any more further north than in the past when had KU snowstorm tracks as the comparison to 2014 snowed. But what changed is that the subtropical ridge was too far north. So the gradient got pushed to our north with the heavy snows.

Last February would have been a much better pattern for the area around NYC if this mid-latitude ridge from Hawaii to Bermuda wasn’t so overpowering. It muted the -EPO -WPO and Greenland block influence. Back in February 2014 the -WPO-EPO and Greenland block was able to dominate so it was much snowier around NYC. February 2025 had the first -5 AO and -5 SD Greenland block cutter that gave record snows to Toronto and Montreal instead of around NYC Metro.

I wouldn’t say the +AO is driving it since the ridge in the North Pacific beneath the -EPO and ridge north of Alaska is even stronger than the one we just had under the +AO in the Northeast. We have seen the ridge in the Northeast with the record -5 AO back in February. So while the higher latitude teleconnections shift around, this mid-latitude ridge has been the one constant.