bluewave

The actual temperature rankings for the entire CONUS finished the winter on the warmer side since 1895. Since recent winters were so much warmer, this winter felt very cold in comparison. The CONUS had 6 winters since 15-16 finish within the top 22 warmest of all winters. But the last time the CONUS had a 22nd coldest winter was back in 09-10. Have to go back to the late 70s for a top 10 coldest winter. So you can see how using departures in a rapidly warming climate fails to provide an accurate perspective. December 24…..4th warmest January 25………33rd coldest February 25……..48th warmest DJF 24-25……….27th warmest 23-24…..1st warmest winter 15-16….. 2nd warmest winter 19-20…..7th warmest winter 16-17…..9th warmest winter 22-23…18th warmest winter 21-22….21st warmest winter 78-79…..1st coldest winter 77-78…..7th coldest winter 76-77…..12th coldest winter 83-84…..18th coldest winter 84-85…..20th coldest winter 09-10….22nd coldest winter

Another 70° day in the warm sector away from the marine influence.

For the Northeast it was -1.2° using 1991-2020, -0.3 using 1981-2010, +0.5 using 1971-2000, and +1.8° using 1961-1990.

Onshore flow here and record warmth to the north has become very predictable with the strongest 500mb anomaly over Nova Scotia instead of to our south.

Another over the top warm up with the record warmth going to our north.

Yeah, that was 3-13-90. We used to get flatter ridges over the Southeast with strong westerly flow warm ups. So the warmest temperatures were directed right in to the area. Now the over the top warm ups have become the norm going into Canada first. So this leaves room for more backdoors and onshore flow.

I remember you posting an article on the Nino 1+2 very early warming into the spring of 2023. Wondering if this new PCC pattern they discovered in the Pacifc may be related to the faster warming last few years. We have noticed how these WWBs and warming have been very impressive in the EPAC since the spring of 2023. The WWBs actually set a February record last month with the warming which has occurred there last few weeks. They don’t seem to know very much yet about this but I think it could possibly be related to why the warming suddenly increased beyond all past cases related to ENSO. https://lamont.columbia.edu/news/climate-change-signal-tropical-pacific

It’s been very common in recent years. Very strong ridging into Southeast Canada turns the flow more onshore during our early spring warm ups these days. Back in the old days we could get deep westerly flow in the early spring so mid 80s would extend across Long Island like in March 1990. Monthly Data for March 1990 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CRANFORD COOP 86 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 86 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 85 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 85 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 85 NY WEST NYACK COOP 85 NY MINEOLA COOP 85 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 85 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 84 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 84 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 84 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 84 NY WESTBURY COOP 84 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 84 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 84 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 83 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 83 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 83 NJ LODI COOP 83 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 83 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 82 NY SUFFERN COOP 82 NY SCARSDALE COOP 82 NY DIX HILLS COOP 82 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 82 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 82 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 82 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 82 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 81 NY WEST POINT COOP 81 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 81 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 80 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 80 CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 80 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 80 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 80

Yeah, looks like the onshore flow and backdoor season has officially begun. So plenty of onshore flow going forward. West of the Hudson will be favored for the best warmth over the next week.

We are beginning to shift into the spring pattern was has much less westerly flow than the winter did. Yesterday was the first day with stronger easterly flow. Every warm up will have to compete with onshore flow. So the 70° warmth will probably line up west of the Hudson on the warmer days. And the onshore flow will be very noticeable especially near the coast. We will probably have to wait a week for our next stronger westerly flow event behind one of the cuttters.

Part of it is that the drought peaked in mid-April 2002 with all the record heat and some spots approaching 100°. It started getting rainy in late April so we didn’t get the peak drought conditions during the summer like in 1995. Plus we didn't have the high winds in the spring of 2002 like we have been getting this year. So hopefully we can start getting wet again by mid to late spring so we avoid a drought peak during the summer with all that would entail. Monthly Data for April 2002 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 98 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 97 NJ CRANFORD COOP 97 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 97 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 96 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 96 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 96 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 96 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 96 NY BRONX COOP 96 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 96 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 95 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 95 NY WEST POINT COOP 95 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 95 NY OCEANSIDE COOP 95 CT DANBURY COOP 95 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 95 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 95 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 95 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 95

It has been the 2nd driest late August to mid-March on record in NYC. The actual rainfall has been similar the same as the 2001-2002 drought. So those departures are legit since they match the actual amounts. There has only been 14.73” since August 23rd. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-03-13 14.25 0 2 2025-03-13 14.73 1 3 1947-03-13 15.23 0 4 1932-03-13 16.08 0 5 1966-03-13 16.10 0 6 1880-03-13 16.64 0 7 1954-03-13 16.87 0 - 1876-03-13 16.87 0 8 1905-03-13 17.05 0 9 1897-03-13 17.07 0 10 1992-03-13 17.12 0

Part of the challenge in conveying that these winters just aren’t as cold as the used to be is making the bar lower for what constitutes a cold winter. Updating the climate normals every 10 years normalizes how much warmer the winters are getting. The NOAA NCEI should probably settle on a baseline from before the rapid increase in temperatures prior to 1980 like NASA, Berkeley Earth, and other centers do for determining the global temperatures.The record winter warmth in recent years made this winter seem like a cold one in comparison. But the actual temperature rankings place this winter closer to the old average or even warmer.

March has become too warm for much snow around NYC during the 2020s. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T

Every weather event that occurs is in some way influenced by the average global temperatures around the time of the event. You wouldn’t expect the real world weather events to be the same during an ice age as they were during the PETM. So the background climate temperatures during each era sets the parameters or range of possibilities for the individual weather events.

6th earliest 70° day for Sussex airport in NW NJ yesterday. First/Last Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2018 02-21 (2018) 76 11-01 (2018) 71 252 2017 02-24 (2017) 74 11-03 (2017) 71 251 2012 03-08 (2012) 70 10-06 (2012) 70 211 2016 03-08 (2016) 71 11-08 (2016) 71 244 2020 03-09 (2020) 71 11-10 (2020) 74 245 2006 03-10 (2006) 71 12-01 (2006) 71 265 2025 03-11 (2025) 70 - - - 2024 03-13 (2024) 72 11-18 (2024) 71 24

This is actually a very rare aspect of a warming climate that we sometimes see with a record snowstorm following record warmth. The warmth in the preceding months in New Orleans was more impressive than the cold which followed during January. November 2024 was one of the most anomalous warm months there at nearly +3.0° above its previous warmest November. Time Series Summary for New Orleans Area, LA (ThreadEx) - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 70.2 0 2 2020 67.3 0 - 1985 67.3 0 4 1978 67.1 0 5 2015 67.0 0 6 1973 66.6 0 We saw a similar occurrence in NYC in January 2016 with the record snowstorm following the most extreme warm month on record with December 2015 going +13.3° and the first 50° December warmer than most Novembers. That December was a record breaking 6° warmer than the previous warmest December. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 50.8 0 2 2023 44.6 0 3 2001 44.1 0 4 2021 43.8 0 5 1984 43.7 0 6 2006 43.6 0 7 2011 43.3 0 8 1998 43.1 0 9 1982 42.7 0 10 1990 42.6 0 Another occurrence of this rare phenomenon happened back in 2011 in Newark NJ. They experienced their warmest reading on record reaching 108° in July 2011. Then their biggest October snowstorm on record a few months later. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 108 0 2 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1953 105 0 - 1949 105 0 The one common denominator with these events was that they were isolated in nature and the snowstorms didn’t represent a new normal. As NYC still hasn’t had a snowstorm as big all this time after. And Newark is yet to have another October snowstorm like that one again. So my guess is that this isn’t the beginning of a shift to much snowier winters in New Orleans. And the warmth records will continue to be more impressive vs the cold ones over time.

It will be interesting to see how this drought progresses over the spring. Since areas away from the sea breeze during the last drought which was weaker in 2022 had a near record number of 100° days in NJ. But that was a continuing La Niña pattern from 20-21 to 22-23. This spring is more uncertain with the ENSO as there is currently a toss up between a continuing La Niña or an attempt to shift back into El Niño. We don’t have any analogs for such a quick shift back to El Niño. So the ENSO progress and drought progress could very well shape the coming summer details. Plus we have the coldest SSTs in over a decade to our east so backdoors this spring could be particularly strong. Any lingering cool spots to our east could enhance sea breezes here in the summer. So a number of factors to consider for our summer pattern.

3rd highest 9 hour temperature rise in March at spots like SMQ. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=SMQ&v=tmpf&hours=9&month=mar&dir=warm&how=over&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

This has been one of the most impressive 6-8 hr temperature rises that we have seen in the early spring.

Low 70s even made it to the Catskills today. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=CKCN6&hours=72

New record low Arctic sea ice extent for February and a recent paper on increasing Atlantification in the Arctic. https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/february-made-me-shiver-not-arctic The average February 2025 Arctic sea ice extent was 13.75 million square kilometers (5.31 million square miles), the lowest February extent in the 47-year satellite record, 220,000 square kilometers (85,000 square miles) below the previous record low February set in 2018. Daily ice growth stalled twice during the month, which helped to contribute to low ice conditions and led to overall ice retreat in the Barents Sea. By the end of the month, extent was low nearly everywhere, the exception being the East Greenland Sea. Extent is far below average in the Labrador Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq7580 Changes associated with atlantification are extensive and fundamental for the state of the high-latitude climate system. The primary impact has been the rapidly diminishing sea ice in the Siberian Arctic over the past decade (Fig. 1, A and BOpens in image viewer). Here, we used mooring and satellite data to demonstrate the advancement of atlantification into the Siberian Arctic Ocean and its ramifications for the state of the upper ocean, sea ice, and air-sea interactions (Fig. 5Opens in image viewer). In particular, we show that the winter ventilation of the halocline in the eastern Eurasian Basin resulted in more than twofold rate in sea-ice loss caused by oceanic heat fluxes as compared to the 2010s. The transition of the Makarov Basin to conditions similar to those observed in the eastern Eurasian Basin 5 to 7 years ago is another critically important finding (this lag is depicted by in Fig. 5Opens in image viewer). The powerful ocean-heat/ice-albedo feedback mechanism is the primary cause of these changes (phase 2 of atlantification in Fig. 5Opens in image viewer). Deep ventilation and weak stratification increase upward AW heat fluxes, which promotes the wintertime suppression of sea-ice formation and subsequent more effective summertime reduction of sea ice by an ice-albedo feedback. This complex process was the key to establishing the diminished sea-ice cover in the Siberian Arctic in recent years. In contrast, no deep ventilation of AW heat was found in the eastern parts of the Makarov Basin and East Siberian Sea. Shoaling of the AW and halocline, however, indicates that the eastern Siberian Arctic Ocean is experiencing a preconditioning phase (phase 1 of atlantification in Fig. 5Opens in image viewer) similar to that found in the western Siberian Arctic Ocean in the 2000s. This ongoing transition not only mirrors earlier changes but also sets the stage for broader ecosystem impacts. While it was identified that the intrusion of Atlantic-origin water into the Chukchi Plateau is associated with biogeochemical impacts (33), our analysis reveals that these physical changes—particularly AW shoaling, halocline weakening, and seasonal variability in the Atlantic/Pacific halocline front—are establishing conditions for halocline stability disruptions and increased AW penetration. These atlantification-related physical changes have important ecological implications.

The highs have been winning out at SMQ as they are +6.3 for the maximum temperature departure this month and -0.9 on the minimums.

It was our driest winter since 21-22 across the area.