bluewave

Yeah, this warm surge has been overperforming as it has crossed the country.

Our 2nd top 10 warmest March in a row. Very dramatic March shift to warmer after 2019. Every March in the 2020s has had at least top 20 warmth. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012 51.3 0 2 1945 50.6 0 3 2016 49.1 0 4 1946 48.8 0 5 1973 48.6 0 6 2024 48.5 0 7 2010 48.2 0 8 2020 47.9 0 9 2000 47.8 0 10 2025 46.8 5 11 1977 46.7 0 12 1979 46.2 0 13 2021 45.6 0 14 1995 45.5 0 15 2022 45.2 0 - 1998 45.2 0 16 1987 45.0 0 17 2023 44.9 0 - 1990 44.9 0 18 1983 44.7 0 19 1985 44.5 0 20 1991 44.4 0 - 1936 44.4 0 21 2002 44.1 0 - 1986 44.1 0

We have had so many early 80s in recent years, that if Newark makes it to 80° on Saturday it will only rank as 11th earliest. /Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223 1990 03-13 (1990) 86 10-14 (1990) 83 214 1945 03-16 (1945) 81 10-19 (1945) 82 216 2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191 1938 03-22 (1938) 80 10-17 (1938) 90 208 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 10-20 (2021) 80 207 1998 03-27 (1998) 84 09-27 (1998) 91 183 2007 03-27 (2007) 80 10-23 (2007) 80 209 1989 03-28 (1989) 83 10-16 (1989) 80 201 1946 03-29 (1946) 80 10-31 (1946) 82 215 1977 03-29 (1977) 80 09-19 (1977) 84 173 1985 03-29 (1985) 84 10-15 (1985) 80 199

The April 2002 backdoor was probably the most impressive with 90s to 50s in 1 hour for places like Boston. M 93 °F 49 °F 22 % W 17 mph 26 mph 29.82 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 5:54 PM 91 °F 49 °F 23 % W 14 mph 0 mph 29.82 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 6:32 PM 66 °F 50 °F 56 % NNE 26 mph 33 mph 29.87 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy / Windy 6:54 PM 59 °F 50 °F 72 % NNE 25 mph 35 mph 29.91 in 0.0 in Cloudy / Windy 7:54 PM 55 °F 49 °F 80 % ENE 7 mph 0 mph 29.95 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy

Yeah, we haven’t had much westerly flow with our warm ups in recent years so this will be something to watch for as we head into the warm season.

The drought feedback is giving this early season warmth a boost. So it’s possible we can see our first 80° warmth of the season on Saturday. Going forward it looks like the warm front will stall out to our north into early April with continued below normal rainfall. If the rains don’t eventually come next few months, then this kind of warmth could be our summer preview.

We mostly use the meteorological seasons like MAM for spring. Back during the 2010s March was often like a winter month with cold and snow. But since 2020 March has been a spring month with well above average temperatures and very little snowfall. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 46.2 46.2 2025 45.5 45.5 2024 48.1 48.1 2023 44.6 44.6 2022 45.3 45.3 2021 45.8 45.8 2020 48.0 48.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 42.7 42.7 2019 41.7 41.7 2018 40.1 40.1 2017 39.2 39.2 2016 48.9 48.9 2015 38.1 38.1 2014 37.7 37.7 2013 40.1 40.1 2012 50.9 50.9 2011 42.3 42.3 2010 48.2 48.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T

You know that March has been warming very quickly in the 2020s when +7° on the highs isn’t considered warm any more.

How far north the warm front gets on Saturday will be determined by which of the two high pressure systems are stronger. If the Bermuda high is stronger like in recent runs, then the warm front will come further north. But if the Canadian high is stronger than there will be more if a struggle to come north. Since the temperature gradient is so steep, there could be a 30°+ temperature shift over a few miles. So we are getting the 0z to 12z windshield wiper effect until we get close enough for one solution to win out. New run stronger Bermuda high and warm front further north Old run Canadian high stronger so warm front further south

Great analysis on the recent acceleration of the global warming. Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf ‪@rahmstorf.bsky.social‬ Follow Has global warming accelerated? „At that rate (0.1 °C every 3 years), after we blow past 1.5 °C (this year or next?) it’ll take just 15 more years to reach 2 °C.“ tamino.wordpress.com/2025/03/23/r... Recent Global Temperature: Acceleration or Surge? RealClimate has an excellent post about how exceptional the years 2023 and 2024 were (in terms of global temperature). Here are annual averages since 1970, data from NASA: tamino.wordpress.com March 23, 2025 at 9:58 AM Everybody can reply

Yeah, the GFS has been in last place among the majors with the strong cold bias and multiple long range snowstorms.

No matter how much these models progress, it’s going to be very hard to pin down the exact location of a backdoor cold front beyond 120 hrs. You can see the impressive temperature gradient potential for next weekend. While most of NJ has already had a 70° day this month, the last shot for NYC may come down to the wire on the 31st.

The average last freeze in NYC during the 2020s has been 3-24. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 233 Mean 03-24 11-19 240 Maximum 04-03 (2021) 11-30 (2024) 250 2024 03-24 (2024) 31 11-30 (2024) 30 250 2023 03-30 (2023) 31 11-25 (2023) 30 239 2022 03-30 (2022) 29 11-19 (2022) 31 233 2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233 2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243

The records at Islip only go back to the 1960s. The low of 31° today was also well above the record low of 15° set in 2004. But when we have a month of top 10 warmth even a -3° feels relatively cold in comparison. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 47 244 PM 75 2012 50 -3 52 MINIMUM 31 620 AM 15 2004 34 -3 35 AVERAGE 39 42 -3 44

There was nothing unusual about the cool down this morning since the record for the date is 13° and NYC only made it to 31°. Data for March 23 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1934-03-23 25 13 T T T 1875-03-23 32 13 0.00 0.0 M 1888-03-23 20 14 0.00 0.0 M 1885-03-23 26 16 0.00 0.0 M 1940-03-23 28 18 T T 0 1906-03-23 27 19 0.00 0.0 M 1874-03-23 44 19 0.00 0.0 M 1959-03-23 47 20 0.00 0.0 0 1916-03-23 36 22 T T 2 2017-03-23 42 23 0.00 0.0 0 2015-03-23 38 23 0.00 0.0 0

My guess is that most days will be over 50° next few weeks in NYC. The average high this week is 53° which rises to 57° in early April. We even made it close to 50° today behind the cold front.

The EPS is warmer overall next few weeks with a few colder days mixed in when the backdoors drop south before retreating north again. March 24-31 March 31 to April 7th

Possibly in NYC.

Today should be our first colder day in almost 3 weeks. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - March 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1252 811 - - 393 0 3.25 0.0 - Average 56.9 36.9 46.9 5.7 - - - - 0.0 Normal 49.4 32.9 41.2 - 525 0 2.95 4.7 2025-03-01 65 28 46.5 8.2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-02 37 21 29.0 -9.5 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-03 41 22 31.5 -7.3 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-04 59 28 43.5 4.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-05 61 41 51.0 11.7 14 0 1.53 0.0 0 2025-03-06 57 37 47.0 7.4 18 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-07 53 35 44.0 4.2 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-08 48 36 42.0 1.9 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-09 56 28 42.0 1.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-10 69 39 54.0 13.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-11 67 44 55.5 14.6 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-12 54 45 49.5 8.3 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-13 52 41 46.5 5.0 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-14 55 42 48.5 6.7 16 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-15 48 42 45.0 2.9 20 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-16 70 47 58.5 16.1 6 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-17 64 38 51.0 8.3 14 0 0.75 0.0 0 2025-03-18 64 35 49.5 6.5 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-19 62 43 52.5 9.2 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-20 51 43 47.0 3.4 18 0 0.96 0.0 0 2025-03-21 54 40 47.0 3.1 18 0 0.01 0.0 0 2025-03-22 65 36 50.5 6.2 14 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-23 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-24 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-25 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-26 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-27 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-28 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-29 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-30 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-31 M M M M M M M M M

High winds continue to be the big story with that locally severe squall line last night.

The Euro has the strongest backdoor gradient of the spring so far with low 80s in PA and 70s in NJ with 30s in Upstate NY.

Even NYC will have a shot at 70° next weekend so that below 70° for DJFM may not hold.

Our area east of the Hudson has been a different story than NJ and interior SENY due to the onshore flow during the stronger WAA days. So we had to settle for only around + 7° for the maxes this month vs the 10°+ and numerous 70° days west. Even though +7° is still a significant departure for highs, it will limit our March 70° potential since the average high on Long Island in March is only in the 40s for most of the month.

Warm pattern for early April as the Southeast Ridge links up again with the Greenland Block.

The warm up for next weekend will have more of an onshore flow again with the 70s away from the immediate shore.