bluewave

That is an impressive convective snow band in the NAM. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and elevated TT’s. It will be interesting to see where it actually sets up.

Yeah, this was the easy part of the forecast.

I am close to that bright band on the radar. Just enough of a warm tongue aloft so I am sleet.

Moderate sleet now in SW Suffolk and 33.6 degrees.

Yeah, we’ll see what the mesos like once they get into their better range tonight and tommorow.

The Euro wouldn’t be bad for the first week of December.

Yeah, the sleet just changed to rain here in SW Suffolk.

The 12z NAM has the best chance for snow at LGA Monday night. Starts to changeover later in the afternoon.

That feature almost looks like a hybrid IVT and CCB in the soundings. Notice how steep the midlevel lapse rates are with the elevated TT’s. Could be some intense snowfall rates where that sets up.

Root for the stronger CCB on the 12z NAM to pivot through NYC. The details with that feature will make or break this forecast.

It was the coldest November at JFK since 1996. Just behind 2012 and 5th coldest overall. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1976 40.7 0 2 1967 41.1 0 3 1996 42.4 0 4 1962 42.5 0 5 2019 43.3 0 6 2012 43.6 0 7 2018 44.3 0 - 2002 44.3 0

November continued to be the only fall month during the 2010’s able to generate any cold around here. This was the coldest one of the decade for the area. It was also the 3rd cold November in a row. The decade finishes with 6 colder than normal Novembers to 4 above normal. 2010’s November temperature departures Nov....EWR...NYC...LGA 2019...-4.0....-3.8.....-3.7 2018...-3.1....-3.3....-2.7 2017...-.0.7....-1.1....-0.3 2016...+2.9...+2.1...+4.1 2015...+5.2...+5.1...+5.0 2014...-2.9....-2.4....-2.9 2013...-2.4....-2.4....-2.8 2012...-3.5....-3.8....-3.2 2011..+4.1...+4.2...+3.8 2010..+0.5....+0.2...+1.1

I have no idea where the band may set up. But the forecast soundings have very steep mid level lapse rates and elevated TT’s. So it’s possible somebody gets thunder if that IVT sets up. So many moving parts with this event that it may come down to nowcast time on Monday.

Yeah, IVT’s are notorious for going from nothing to a heavy dump within a few miles. Almost like summer convection.

Models won’t be able to pin down that band location correctly this far out. Almost looks like an IVT which always changes form run to run.

Yeah, you can see how the models have been shifting for days on the P-type , locations, amounts, and temperatures. It’s enough to make some forecasters want to move to a warmer climate without P-type issues.

That’s for sure. All dependent on location. Hopefully, the uncertainty gets conveyed in the forecasts. Get ready for nowcast time.

This one has big bust potential written all over it with so many moving parts.

The exact dry slot placement is always a wild card with these close low set ups.

The coldest NYC has been reach this decade for a DJF average was 2014-2015. It was the only winter to average below freezing during the 2010’s at 31.4 degrees. But it wasn’t close to 1976-1977 which was 28.4 degrees. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1917-1918 25.7 0 2 1880-1881 26.5 0 3 1903-1904 27.3 0 4 1919-1920 27.4 0 - 1874-1875 27.4 0 5 1872-1873 27.7 0 6 1904-1905 28.1 0 7 1935-1936 28.3 0 8 1976-1977 28.4 0 - 1884-1885 28.4 0 - 1882-1883 28.4 0 9 1892-1893 28.5 0 10 1887-1888 28.6 0 11 1878-1879 29.0 0 12 1933-1934 29.1 0 13 1871-1872 29.5 0 14 1922-1923 29.8 0 15 1962-1963 29.9 0 - 1885-1886 29.9 0 - 1876-1877 29.9 0 16 1947-1948 30.0 0 - 1886-1887 30.0 0 - 1883-1884 30.0 0 17 1894-1895 30.2 0 18 1977-1978 30.3 0 19 1969-1970 30.5 0 - 1944-1945 30.5 0 20 1911-1912 30.7 0 21 1958-1959 30.8 0 - 1870-1871 30.8 0 22 1993-1994 31.1 0 - 1934-1935 31.1 0 23 2002-2003 31.2 0 - 1967-1968 31.2 0 - 1909-1910 31.2 0 24 2014-2015 31.4 0 - 1921-1922 31.4 0 25 1898-1899 31.5 0 26 1939-1940 31.6 0 27 1960-1961 31.7 0 - 1916-1917 31.7 0 - 1906-1907 31.7 0 - 1900-1901 31.7 0 28 1913-1914 31.9 0 - 1901-1902 31.9 0

Yes, I just posted that in the climate change forum with all the charts included. The changes to the MJO have become a big part of our 2010’s weather patterns. It shows what we already figured out. The MJO has been spending more time in the Maritime Continent phases due to the rapid SST warming of the Indio-Pacific warm pool.

This November will be remembered for the 4th coldest 8th through 18th on record in NYC. Last year was the 4th coldest 14th through 24th. Outside of February 2015, out coldest periods have been compressed into intervals generally less than 2 weeks long. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 8 to Nov 18 Missing Count 1 1933-11-18 35.6 0 2 1873-11-18 37.3 0 3 1869-11-18 38.7 0 4 2019-11-18 39.1 0 5 1976-11-18 39.5 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 14 to Nov 24 Missing Count 1 1880-11-24 30.7 0 2 1873-11-24 34.3 0 3 1882-11-24 35.9 0 4 2018-11-24 36.8 0 5 1933-11-24 37.3 0

Yeah, this is a record breaking 500mb dipole pattern between the West Coast and Gulf Coast.

Great view of the record breaking storm and supercharged Pacific jet stream.

LGA gusting to 46 mph now. LaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY 49 31 49 NW31G46 29.74S