bluewave

At least we aren’t alone with the challenging snowfall situation. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

This has been our default February pattern since 2017 as this Niña-like regime continues.

67 degrees in Atlantic City after the sun came out. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KACY

While all the models have had a cold bias beyond 120 hrs, the GEFS has been much worse than the EPS.

I would much rather have a series of great KU events than a bunch of smaller ones adding up to 20 something. Our snowfall seasons have become more like a power hitter that either homers or strikes out a lot. So it leaves us open to slump years when it’s a struggle to just get on base.

The midrange 20’s snowfall seasons have vanished at places like BNL since the 93-94 winter. They used to be common before then. Snowfall distribution has become more extreme. Now snowfall is either over 30” or under 20”. https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

January finished with the 3rd most positive AO index for the month behind 1993 and 1989. Jan 1993...+3.495...1989....+3.106....2020...+2.419. Models continuing to forecast levels getting above +5. This would be near the all-time highest values. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

Looks like only the 4th January that the high temperature remained above 32 degrees in Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 35 0 2 2020 33 0 - 1953 33 0 - 1932 33 0 5 2002 32 0 - 1937 32 0

Not this time around. https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/archive/2010/weakening-sun-would-hardly-slow-global-warming Most likely, a new Grand Minimum of solar activity would diminish global mean temperatures in the year 2100 by about 0.1 or 0.2 degrees Celsius,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth System Analysis at PIK. Even taking into account all uncertainties in the temperature reconstruction, the forcings, and the model physics, the overall uncertainty is estimated to be at most a factor of three, so the solar cooling effect would very likely not exceed 0.3 degrees. “A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions,” the authors conclude. Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a Grand Minimum of solar activity would merely be a temporary effect, since solar minima typically last for several decades to a century at most. Current temperature data also confirm that the effect of low solar activity on the climate is very small”, notes Rahmstorf. The current minimum has not noticeably slowed down global warming. Projected changes to the global mean temperature depend more strongly on emissions than solar activity. Credit: PIK

Yeah, models going really strong on the forcing around phase 6 with the near record warm SST’s out there.

Hopefully, this just turns out to be a 2 year thing. That’s how it has worked out since 2010. But if we don’t see a change as soon as next winter, then it could be an extended stretch. 09-10....10-11....record -AO/-NAO....Colder and snowy 11-12..................Raging +EPO..........Warm low snowfall 12-13..................Great February especially eastern sections...warmer winter 13-14....14-15.....record -EPO...built further east into +PNA 2nd winter...cold and snowy 15-16..................Super El Niño...warm and snowy 16-17.....17-18....Warm and snowy La Niña 18-19....19-20.....Warm and less snowfall...ridge stuck north of Hawaii with persistent cutter and hugger storm tracks

Yeah, the spring into early summer pattern evolution will be important. This pattern during the summer would be just like 2010 to 2012.

No surprise since the ridge axis has been stuck north of Hawaii for 2 winters now. The million dollar question is how much longer this most recent stuck weather pattern lasts.

58 degrees now at Newark. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kewr

OP runs beyond 120 hrs are never really great with storm details. That’s why the EPS means are often used 126 to 240. But even then, they mostly show skill with things like AN or BN temperatures and the 500mb pattern. A Euro advantage is the great ensemble system that often shows when a long range OP run is an outlier among its ensembles. That why a super amped OP solution beyond 120hrs often doesn’t match the EPS mean. The GFS really doesn’t have this relationship with its ensembles. So they can both often turn out to be incorrect.

50 degrees in Newark at 11am. Newark Liberty FAIR 50 39 66 SW7

At least we weren’t as cloudy as the Midwest and Great Lakes have been.

That particular OP solution is an outlier among its ensembles.

Another warm day on tap. NYC is 42 degrees at 7am and already ahead of the average high of 39 degrees.

This would be one heck of a +AO pressure gradient.

High temperatures beat guidance behind the warm front today. But the Euro came closest.

It looks like North Carolina to Florida are experiencing a faster rise than we are. https://e360.yale.edu/features/flooding-hot-spots-why-seas-are-rising-faster-on-the-u.s.-east-coast What Norfolk gets is that while sea level is rising globally at about a tenth of an inch per year, cities along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States — including Norfolk; Baltimore; Charleston, South Carolina; and Miami, among others — have suffered “sunny day” flooding from seas rising far faster than the global average. One study published last year shows that from 2011 to 2015, sea level rose up to 5 inches — an inch per year — in some locales from North Carolina to Florida. Given growing concerns over the flooding, scientists are now working to unravel the mystery of why some parts of the globe are experiencing so-called “sunny day” flooding that had not been expected for decades under conventional sea level rise projections. Along the southeastern coast of the U.S., researchers have zeroed in on three factors that have made this shoreline a regional hot spot of sea level rise. They include a slowing Gulf Stream, shifts in a major North Atlantic weather pattern, and the effects of El Niño climate cycles. “These coastal areas are more vulnerable than they realize to short-term rapid acceleration of sea level rise,” says Andrea Dutton, a University of Florida geologist who studies the history of sea level fluctuations. “If they’re hanging their hat on sea level rise projections looking at the potential over decades, they need to refocus and think about the potential for short-term variability in that rate.” Around the world, sea levels are not rising equally like water in a bathtub. The oceans are more akin to a rubber kiddie pool where the water sloshes around unevenly, often considerably higher on one side than another.

Better that temperatures are in the 40’s than 20’s for the annual Long Beach Polar Bear Plunge.