bluewave
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Posts posted by bluewave
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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:
That winter of 2010-2011 would have easily beaten 1996 if the La niña didn't take over
Parts of the area had around 60" of snow in just over 30 days. Can you imagine if that snow machine continued through February or even March?
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Boxing Day in 2010 was our last major KU in December. Much more backloading to the winters since then. December 2000 to 2010 was unsurpassed with so many major early season events in an 11 year period.
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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
Anyone know the exact location of the Central Park AOS? I would like to go take some pics and send them to Upton. I work a few blocks from the park and can do it any day. I also have allot of tree work equipment.......
Near the castle along the 79th st transverse through Central Park. The last photos on the site below were taken in 2013. So you are looking at 5 years of growth on top of that.
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37 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
Sycamores/London Planes lose allot of bark this time of year as they grow and stretch. I just spent the last hour cleaning up exactly that on campus
The old rule living in Long Beach was to never park under a sycamore. Those trees were in really bad shape even before Sandy. Many of them had large sections that were bare. Even a strong sea breeze would cause small branches to break off on parked cars. The city fell behind in the tree maintenance in the years before Sandy. But all the saltwater root damage was the final straw for most of them to get cut down. Long Beach still doesn't look the same to me with all the open space where the large trees used to be.
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Enhanced clean up this week for the local landscape specialists. The trees seemed to drop more leaves than usual with the weekend storm following the recent drought stress. There is also quite a bit of bark and broken small branches lying around. A few large bird nests also blew out of the trees.
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Another measure of how strong the reverse dipole is this summer.
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The UK drought is showing up on the satellite. This is the driest June 1-July 16 since at least 1961 in the UK.
Look at how the UK is turning brown after the lack of rainfall (Photo source:@metoffice) #Summer2018 #ukheatwave pic.twitter.com/McubDTZI3c -
13 hours ago, CIK62 said:
Since water seeks it's own level, blocking it at one point will just cause it to rise up somewhere else. When those so affected find out, they will demand an artificial barrier too. Therefore you will never come to any final conclusion.
This is similar to building new roads, tunnels and bridges-----the more that are built, the more you need. As Robert Moses found out.
No, the low lying areas that are vulnerable, will just be abandoned---when replacement costs get too high and new building codes too onerous.
The proposed system will have gates from Sandy Hook to Breezy point and near the Throgs Neck bridge. So it will prevent a surge from the LI Sound and Atlantic. You know systems like this will become a reality in the future with rising sea levels. Remember, they were talking about protective dune systems for LB since the 1980's and 1990's. It finally took Sandy to get the ball rolling on the project. So my guess is that systems like this will start to get built sometime between 2025 and 2050.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Harbor_Storm-Surge_Barrier
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The bays along the South Shore need to be included in some version of this.
https://www.wnyc.org/story/army-corps-proposes-giant-hurricane-barrier-across-new-york-bay/
More than five years after Sandy, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is taking a closer look at one of the ideas that caught the public's imagination right after the storm hit: a giant steel-and-concrete barrier that would stretch across New York Harbor and prevent an ocean surge from flooding waterfront areas again.
Such barriers gained prominence in the Netherlands, where a series of structures called the Delta Works protects the southwestern part of the country. But they're also in use in London; St. Petersburg, Russia; Providence, R.I.; and Stamford, Conn. The gates are kept open most of the time to permit ships to pass and water to circulate, but they swing closed when a hurricane approaches. (The gates in Stamford swing upward off the sea floor.)
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:
That recent study is a bit of an outlier.
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The Arctic circulation pattern since May has been the complete opposite of 2012.
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The 2010's just keep producing one new extreme after the other.
There had been no measurable rain at Reagan National Airport, Washington’s official weather site, in 19 days, including none in the first 16 days of July, a record. Then, in 42 minutes, the heavens unloaded 2.63 inches as intense thunderstorms barreled through the region.
“I’ve been here 40 years,” said airport observer Nicholas Parrell. “I’ve never had that.”
In all, 2.79 inches fell in just over an hour, setting a record for July 17 and besting the 2.05 inches from 1945. It was the airport’s biggest single-day rainfall in almost a year (since July 28, 2017) and the second-most for a July day since 1975.
“That certainly is a very heavy amount for a short period of time,” said Chris Strong, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Sterling, Va., in an email.
In the afternoon, 0.95 inches of rain fell in just nine minutes and 1.22 inches fell in 15 minutes. Such rainfall intensities are expected only once every 10 to 50 years on average.
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5 hours ago, tdp146 said:
They have a short memory.. From that article "During Sandy, floodwater inundated the lower level of Lido Towers, causing $16 million to $17 million in damage."
Sounds like the town of Hempstead needs to get approval from every single owner in order to get an easement to allow the dredge pipe to come onto the beach or it would open the town up to lawsuits. I wonder if the people who won't allow a dredge pipe on 'their' beach for a week or two had any issue taking FEMA money after Sandy.
Some people actually shot a video from Maple Blvd right next to the Lido Towers during Sandy. You can see how fast the current was moving without much of a dune to slow things down. The President Streets neighborhood just to the west was about a foot higher which helped save a number of houses from flooding inside.
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42 minutes ago, tdp146 said:
I don't know if most people realize how much bigger the beaches will be when this is all done.. the shore will extend all the way to the end of the jetties. Hopefully the noise variance gets approved so they can finish faster.
Hard to believe that some residents still can't agree on letting the Army Corps do their stretch of beach.
Army Corps not allowed to work at private condo
http://liherald.com/wantagh/stories/concerns-over-beach-project-in-lido,105089
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7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:
Yeah, those operations are always interesting. I’ve seen them in person in Jersey and OBX. Did they do this at Jones Beach in the 80’s? I may have seen it there too but not sure on that one.
They did a few spots along the LI South Shore over the years. But nothing as extensive as this current project. The new jetties already give the beach a different look. I may not recognize the place once the new dunes and walkovers are in place. As it is, parts of Long Beach look much different due to many of the sycamores which were cut down after Sandy.
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Pretty cool watching the sand dredging videos from Long Beach. They are starting out in the West End.
https://patch.com/new-york/longbeach/dredging-officially-underway-long-beach-shore
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Looks like the CAB may have set a daily record low temperature with the impressive reverse dipole pattern.
http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/
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These big swings in either precipitation or temperature just won't let up.
Remember May and June, and all of the torrential rain? Ellicott City catastrophically flooding for the second time in two years, and Frederick overflowing with water? That is absolutely over now. Seemingly overnight, two months of often-unfathomable rainfall ceded to sunny, hot days and parched lawns.
Since June 27, the last day of rain, Washington has received zero measurable precipitation, as measured at Reagan National Airport. That’s 14 days in a row, and it’s really strange — especially since the season that’s supposed to deliver afternoon showers and thunderstorms like clockwork is not yet over.
“This stretch we are in now is about as dry as it gets this time of year” in Washington, according to Ian Livingston, our local climate guru. He’s specifically taking into account the fact that we’re still in the peak of summer thunderstorm season.
Going beyond “strange” and getting a little more technical, Washington is in a “flash drought” — a short period of high temperatures and rapidly decreasing soil moisture. There are two kinds of flash droughts: those caused by heat waves and the ones caused by lack of rainfall.
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11 hours ago, JWilliam9830 said:
Data from the danish meteorological institute.
http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
There seems to be a lot more ice than 2011-12. This is during the height of melt season and we are well above the 1981-2010 mean.
Lowest surface loss in decades for June. The record late snowpack prevented the local shorebirds from nesting this season.
after months of a persistent atmospheric circulation pattern, Greenland is having its least surface ice loss in decades while NW Europe has extreme sun and heat... persistent extremes are an expected signature of #climatechange@PolarPortal #ukheatwave twitter.com/severeweatherE…pic.twitter.com/lsXraH5nuKBut Churchill Falls (Labrador) saw its coldest June by a 2C margin; the monthly temperature was 6C below normal. Persistent major circulation anomalies are to blame. pic.twitter.com/Iz5QPeXuBrMillions of shorebirds descend on the Arctic each year to mate and raise chicks during the tundra’s brief burst of summer. But that burst, which usually begins in mid-June, never arrived this year for eastern Greenland’s shorebirds, a set of ground-nesting species. Instead, a record late snowpack—lingering into July—sealed the birds off from food and nesting sites. Without these key resources avian migrants to the region will not reproduce in 2018, experts say.-
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10 hours ago, psv88 said:
I think we had one last summer over 2.00”, training storms
ISP had 1.91" on 8-18-17 with the 2"+ amounts closer to the North Shore.
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29 minutes ago, Cfa said:
I haven’t been able to come anywhere near 2 inches in a rain event since the 2014 flood.
Only 5 (lackluster) thunderstorms so far this year, 6 if you include thundersnow.
Hard to believe the 2014 deluge was the last summer event at ISP over 2.00".
8-13-14.....13.51
6-8-13......4.58
7-29-12....2.99
6-25-12....4.16
6-13-12....2.32
8-28-11....3.03
8-15-11....6.49
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11 hours ago, csnavywx said:
The flip side to this is the fact that the record +AO still isn't enough to get a recovery to pre-2007 levels -- only enough to mostly cover for the higher winter temps. You may be right that when we look back, 2007 may have been the most important point in the entire sequence. I'm sure we'll get to some point where extent drops out rapidly towards zero in late Aug in the future, but the biggest change was probably the Beaufort gyre turning from a nursery for ice to a MYI graveyard. That change looks irreversible at this point.
Yeah, 2007 to 2012 was a truly historic period for the Arctic. Some people may not appreciate the rarity of locking in that dipole patttern for 6 seasons in a row.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2012GL053268
Thus we can say that a six year run of near one standard deviation negative excursions (2007–2012) is unique in the 63 year record. To further test the significance of the 2007–2012 AD patterns we randomly generated 10,000 time series, each with 63 points to match the observed time series and with a normal distribution without autocorrelation. For this simple calculation, the chance for having five consecutive values with a negative AD of magnitude greater than 1.0 standard deviation units in a sample size of 63 is rare, less than 1 in a 1000.
11 hours ago, csnavywx said:Bluewave,
You posted this paper earlier and the post is gone:
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14375
I meant to comment on it earlier but ran out of time that day.
It's definitely an interesting and concerning paper. I've read it a couple of times before. I'm not sure that's what's going on here, as it seems that most of the cooling was from diabatic heat loss, but the mechanisms mentioned in the paper are definitely a concern down the road. It looks like most of the ones that predict deep ocean convection collapse in the SPG target right around mid-century. The SPG collapse happens almost regardless of emissions path too (happens in 2.6 and 8.5). The fact that only the higher skill models do it and it happens regardless of emissions scenario does set off an alarm bell that they might be on to something. The authors obviously thought so as well.
It's interesting that the earlier paper you linked (from 2012) showed some SPG instability that the authors dismissed as a 'freak occurrence'. Perhaps not?
Yeah, it seems like the SPG region cooling south of Greenland since 2012 is the result of an atmospheric circulation change to more low pressure. SST’s in that region we’re near record levels of warmth prior to the abrupt circulation shift leading into the 2013 summer. Maybe there is some mechanism by which salinity changes following the 2007-2012 record melt can lead atmospheric circulation shifts by months or years?
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11 hours ago, forkyfork said:
remember when it used to rain more than once every few weeks
Coming up on the 11th anniversary.
NEW YORK ...NASSAU COUNTY... GARDEN CITY 5.18 200 PM 7/18 NASSAU COMM COLLEGE GARDEN CITY 3.44 200 PM 7/18 MESONET FARMINGDALE 3.02 200 PM 7/18 ...NEW YORK COUNTY... NYC/CENTRAL PARK 1.59 200 PM 7/18 ...QUEENS COUNTY... FRESH MEADOWS 3.35 200 PM 7/18 MESONET NYC/LA GUARDIA 2.67 200 PM 7/18 NYC/JFK ARPT 0.75 200 PM 7/18 ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... EAST QUOGUE 4.02 200 PM 7/18 MESONET UPTON 3.92 200 PM 7/18 NWS FORECAST OFFICE SHIRLEY 3.75 200 PM 7/18 ISLIP 3.34 200 PM 7/18
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The NAO averaged for May and June was the most positive on record. This is in stark contrast to the 2012 season which had the 2nd lowest on record.
Tracking The 3”+ Heavy Rainfall Events Since 2010
in New York City Metro
Posted
7-27-18.....3.00" so far at the Staten Island mesonet.
http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=STAT