bluewave

34 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Yeah the models look like they are pretty wet, at least the NAM/GFS.

The Euro has heavy rain potential also as the warm front slows in response to the big high over New England. We could also sneak in another 80 degree day behind the front on Wednesday with enough sun.

Here we go again. More 70 degree dew points and PWAT's near 2.00 on Tuesday. So expect heavy rain potential with the storm system.

Great to see the forum back up again. The big story this month continues to be the record warm average minimum temperatures. Most stations are running +6 to +7 for the average low temperature departures. This places most stations in the top 3 warmest on record for 9/1 to 9/21.

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember someone had written an overview of the 2013 Arctic melt season and I can't find it now...but either way it showed how much the loss of multiyear ice had changed the Arctic. The 2013 summer was the coldest in the Arctic basin since 1996...but yet we still had a min around 5 million sq km, which was lower than any min pre-2007...despite some really warm years like 2005 or 2002. 

Yeah, the 2017 Arctic Report Card showed how the loss of multiyear ice created a new normal over the last decade.

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the interactive graph uses the 5 day mean....it's updated daily, so its a daily reading, but the data is a 5 day average. The single day reading is actually 4.56 million sq km today. Like I said before, I can't remember if they use that or the 1 day reading as the min...but looking back at past mins, I think they use the 5-day reading that's on the graph. I seem to remember them explaining that the single day jumps can be a bit volatile and produce faux numbers on the margins, so they prefer to smooth it out. JAXA actually does this too but they do it over a 2 day average. We'll know soon enough. Not that there is a big difference...

This would probably have been a minimum closer to 7 million sq km in a pre 2007 Arctic world. Zack Labe posted a great chart on how low the pressures were over the Arctic the last two summers. Lowest pressures since the 1990's. But extents well below those levels.

Clash of the seasons coming up over the next week to 10 days. An early fall trough arrives over the Midwest with the WAR still hanging on near the East Coast. Strong late September Great Lakes  cutter pattern along the temperature gradient to our west.

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Bluewave, I think you are referencing the 5 day average....the daily on NSIDC did get as low as 4.55 million sq km.

I'm actually not 100% sure what NSIDC uses...I think they might actually use the 5 day average as the min if I recall correctly, so your number might be more "official".

They will probably issue the official annual minimum extent in the next few days. I used the latest daily reading from the chart below.

Getting very close to the NSIDC annual minimum extent. Most recent update was at 4.601 million sq km. A minimum in the 4 to 5 million sq km range has been typical for the new post 2007 Arctic. 

4 to 5 million sq km minimums 

2018

2017

2016

2015

2011

2010

2008

2007

Below 4 million sq km

2012

Slightly above 5 million sq km

2014

2013

2009

Picked up .70 here in SW Suffolk with the heavy downpours so far.

41 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Strong southerly winds right now in wantagh. A few breaks of sun which I assume are helping mix down the stronger winds

Getting a heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk now with the sun still out. Welcome to Florida.

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, do you think today is the last one or could we see more of these this month/year?  It seems to be rather easy to get 75+ dew points this year, much harder to get 90 degree highs, but if you look at climatology and past history, 75+ dew points should be more difficult to get than 90 degree highs here!

 

Fall begins Saturday night at 9:54PM EDT but day and night dont become equal until 4 days later, on the 26th.

Plenty of moisture available for slow moving tropical downpours from Florence later.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/comploop.html

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We missed a 75 degree dew point by one degree lol.

Looks like Warwick, RI made it.

JFK got their 41st the next day, 75/75/100% right now at  5 am

 

41 days is off the charts compared to anything that we have seen before. 

The Miami dew points can't stay away for long.

Kennedy Intl   CLOUDY    75  74  96 SE9       30.02F

Warwick          N/A     75  75 100 SE5         

Most of our stations are in the top 10 warmest Septembers through 9/16. Same recent pattern where the strongest warmth is north and east of NYC.

Top 10 warmest September rankings through 9/16:

EWR.....#11

LGA.......#5

HPN......#8

JFK.......#8

BDR.....#5

ISP......#2

14 hours ago, Cfa said:

^^^Let’s lock that pattern in, permanently.

You know the drill. The warm water off the East Coast has been where the ridge sets up early in the winter. Later in the season, the warmer pool near Alaska gives the -EPO blocking for snowstorms.

We continue with  warm pools off the East Coast and near Alaska. So the WAR keeps building for warmer than normal temperatures this month. 

Pretty impressive temperature gradient for this time of year between Canada and the US. Better to see a pattern like this now then during the winter.

It will be interesting to see if the NWS can confirm for a new North Carolina state record.

 

William Schmitz

2 hrs · 

Impressive CoCoRaHS North Carolina #Rain total in Swansboro, North Carolina:
Stations:
Swansboro 1.4 N 
Lat: 34.710851 
Lon: -77.129041 
Station: NC-ON-86
Date Precip in.
09/13/2018 0.01
09/14/2018 14.25
09/15/2018 16.33
Totals : 30.59 in.
Southeast Regional Climate Center(SERCC) US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC #ncwx #Florence

42 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Wish I could say the same. Enjoy!

Thanks. It looks like the weather systems will start moving again as the block over SE Canada finally weakens some. 

Very happy to see the sunniest start to the day in a while.

Percentage of cloud cover for the first half of September ahead of February. Hopefully, the second half brings more sun and we fall behind the full month of February percentage.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=LGA&hour=12&year=2018&month=9&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Florence had the 3rd lowest barometric pressure ever recorded for a landfalling U.S. category 1 hurricane south of 40N.

#1....942 mb Sandy........... 2012

#2....952 mb Irene............  2011

#3....958 mb Florence.......  2018

#4....963 mb Lili................. 2003

#5....966 mb Isaac..............2011

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

The first time that a named storm in the Atlantic made landfall in the U.S.taking this track.

Warm minimums continue to drive the departures with all the clouds and high humidity.

LGA 9/13...+4....MAX....0...MIN...+7

.......9/12...+5....MAX....0...MIN...+9