bluewave

September 27, 2018

Another record high minimum.

OKX issues Record Event Report (RER) at Sep 27, 7:34 AM EDT ...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY...mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=2018…

4:36 AM - 27 Sep 2018

OKX issues Record Event Report (RER) at Sep 27, 7:31 AM EDT ...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=2018…

4:34 AM - 27 Sep 2018

Minimum temperature departures through 9- 26:

LGA....+5.9

ISP....+6.6

September 26, 2018

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, Chris, looks very close to our latest 90 degree day, which was October 10, 2007 I think? Do you have a number for our earliest 75+ dew point? I would think it wouldn't be any earlier than April, just like the first 90 degree day. Do you have that graph for 75+ dew point days updated for number 42?

It's been sunny here and feels both hot and is humid and I'm going to turn the AC on lol. I think tomorrow is the anniversary of Hurricane Gloria.

Today was day 42. I would have to look up the earliest 75 degree dew point. But last October 9th was the latest 70 degree minimum temperature on record at JFK.

September 26, 2018

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

77/76 at JFK, the #42 75+ dewpoint here. I wonder what the latest and earliest 75+ dew point days on record are?

https://classic.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-jfk/KJFK/date/2018-9-26

So far about an inch and a quarter of rain between the last two days, most of that fell last night.

It looks like October 10, 2017 was the latest 75 degree dew point at JFK.

September 26, 2018

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

That EC run last night -- oof. +4SD ridge. Even the EPS is +3SD at a week out with widespread +10-15C anomalies across almost the entire basin. The FV3-GFS is much the same. OP deterministics are of course even more extreme. This would be a pretty hefty ridge by mid summer standards, much less late Sep/early Oct.

Yet another year with an extreme autumn setup.

Looks like a new positive 500 mb height record for this time of year over that region.

September 26, 2018

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Such is the consequence of a situation where minimum temperatures have been rising by almost 1°F per decade for an extended period of time.

Most stations across the region are at or near the highest number of 70 degree minimums on record.

1818825832_Screenshot2018-09-26at9_49_33AM.png.6b0a62c70d9ed6fc7fae1fd3024b2cbc.png

September 26, 2018

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56

TOPICAL REVIEW • THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE IS OPEN ACCESS

Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons

Julienne Stroeve1,2 and Dirk Notz3

Published 24 September 2018 • © 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 13, Number 10

Abstract

The decline in the floating sea ice cover in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. In this review, we examine this ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons. Our analysis is based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations and a literature review. We find that relative to the 1981–2010 reference period, recent anomalies in spring and winter sea ice coverage have been more significant than any observed drop in summer sea ice extent (SIE) throughout the satellite period. For example, the SIE in May and November 2016 was almost four standard deviations below the reference SIE in these months. Decadal ice loss during winter months has accelerated from −2.4 %/decade from 1979 to 1999 to −3.4%/decade from 2000 onwards. We also examine regional ice loss and find that for any given region, the seasonal ice loss is larger the closer that region is to the seasonal outer edge of the ice cover. Finally, across all months, we identify a robust linear relationship between pan-Arctic SIE and total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The annual cycle of Arctic sea ice loss per ton of CO2 emissions ranges from slightly above 1 m2 throughout winter to more than 3 m2 throughout summer. Based on a linear extrapolation of these trends, we find the Arctic Ocean will become sea-ice free throughout August and September for an additional 800 ± 300 Gt of CO2 emissions, while it becomes ice free from July to October for an additional 1400 ± 300 Gt of CO2 emissions.

6. Conclusions

Through novel analysis and a review of recent studies, we have examined the ongoing ice loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons. We have established the following key results:

1.

With respect to the 1981–2010 reference period, relative ice loss has been more significant during autumn, winter and spring the last two years than during summer (figure 1).
2.

The ice cover has not only retreated in its areal extent, it has also become much younger (figure 4) and thinner (figure 5) in recent years. In April 2018, only about 2% of the winter sea-ice cover consisted of sea ice older than 5 years, compared to almost 30% of the April sea-ice cover in 1984.
3.

The thinning of the ice cover and the overall warming of the Arctic have increased the likelihood of rapid ice-loss events during summer in recent years (figure 6). On the other hand, the larger expanses of open water have similarly increased the likelihood of rapid ice-growth events during autumn.
4.

The increasing relative loss of winter sea ice is in part related to the fact that more and more regions of the Arctic Ocean completely lose their sea-ice cover during summer (figure 2). This limits the potential for a further acceleration of summer sea ice loss, and causes accelerating sea ice loss during winter.
5.

Accelerated sea ice loss during all months of the year is additionally driven by a lengthening of the melt season. As assessed for the Arctic as a whole through April 2018, melt onset is occurring 3 days earlier per decade, and freeze-up is happening 7 days later per decade (figure 3). Over the 40 year long satellite record, this amounts to a 12 day earlier melt onset and a 28 day later freeze-up.
6.

The recent winter sea ice loss is driven by increased inflow of warm air from the south and an overall warming of the Arctic, which both have substantially reduced the number of freezing degree days in recent years (figures 8 and 9).
7.

The primary cause of the ongoing changes in all months are anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, with a clear linear relationship between sea ice loss and cumulative anthropogenic CO₂emissions in all months (figure 7). The sensitivity ranges from an ice loss per ton of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions of slightly above 1 m² during winter, to more than 3 m² throughout summer.

This last finding possibly has the largest policy implications of all our results: based on the study of Notz and Stroeve (2016), it allows us to estimate the future seasonality of the Arctic Ocean directly from the observational record (figure 10). Extrapolating the linear relationships into the future, we find that the Arctic Ocean completely loses its ice cover throughout August and September for an additional roughly 800 ± 300 Gt of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. For an additional 1400 ± 300 Gt of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, we estimate the Arctic to become sea-ice free from July throughout October (see Notz and Stroeve 2018 for details on these estimates, in particular regarding the uncertainty arising from internal variability).Given today's emission rate of about 40 Gt CO₂ per year, the time window is closing very rapidly to preserve Arctic sea-ice cover all year round.

September 26, 2018

Starting the day with the temps in the low 70's. Be interesting to see if we can hold on at or above 70 before midnight. This would be the 75th day at LGA this year with a minimum at or above 70 degrees. LGA is currently in 2nd place on the highest number of 70 degree or warmer minimums. Notice how many top years have occurred in the 2010's.

Most 70 degree or warmer minimums at LGA:

#1....77 days....2005

#2....74 days....2018

#3...73 days.....2016

#4...71 days....2012

#5...69 days....2015....2010

September 26, 2018

Updated for some of the highest amounts across the area on 9-25-18.

9-2-18...Hamden, CT....8.51...Trumbull, CT....7.32...White Plains, NY....4.41...Totowa, NJ....7.44....Bayonne, NJ...4.77...Setauket, NY...4.53.

September 25, 2018

14 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

White Plains will approach close to 5” when all said and done.

I believe the last 5" event at HPN was Irene on 8-28-11.

September 25, 2018

16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Even better, try to drive through in a low vehicle. Definitely one of the advantages of driving a truck. But I also know the water depth I’m driving through in my neighborhood. (Coastal flooding prone)

dumping again on the uws.

Getting the heaviest downpour of the day here in SW Suffolk now.

September 25, 2018

Why do people drive into floods like this?

https://twitter.com/ABC7NY/status/1044665439123574784?s=20

September 25, 2018

44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

White Plains has picked up 0.99" rain in 30 minutes.

	IEMBot Okx @iembot_okx
At 2:12 PM EDT, White Plains [Westchester Co, NY] DEPT OF HIGHWAYS reports FLASH FLOOD. BRONX RIVER PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING BETWEEN GREENACRES AVENUE AND TARRYTOWN ROAD.mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#OKX/20180… 11:15 AM - 25 Sep 2018 from White Plains, NY

September 25, 2018

Miami dew points return to southern portions of the region.

Wrightstown    PTSUNNY   75  75

September 25, 2018

1210 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KEARNY                  40.75N  74.12W
09/25/2018                   HUDSON             NJ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AVENUE IMPASSABLE DUE TO 3 TO 4
            FEET OF STANDING WATER.

September 25, 2018

First flooding reports coming in.

1142 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEWARK                  40.72N  74.17W
09/25/2018                   ESSEX              NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ALL LANES CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON US 1&9 NORTHBOUND
            APPROACHING WILSON AVENUE.

September 25, 2018

2.03 now on Staten Island with .50 in the last 10 minutes.

http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=STAT

September 25, 2018

32 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I am quite sure it’s been far cloudier than average this month. Some stat I saw showing a cloudy day 70% of time when observed at noon for the month thus far. Normal was around 25% I believe.

So far, we are running more than twice the normal amount of cloudiness for September. It goes along with the high dew points and record minimum temperature warmth.

network-NY_ASOS--zstation-LGA--hour-12--year-2018--month-9--dpi-100.png.767ad376b6b45f43d1ed83dc09c0f144.png

September 25, 2018

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 8:10 am, New York City’s Central Park had picked up 0.27” rain. That brings 2018’s total precipitation to 45.21”, which ranks as New York City’s 64th highest figure on record.

Implied probabilities of annual precipitation:

50” or above:
Historic data: 96%
1971-2017 data: 96%

60” or above:
Historic data: 20%
1971-2017 data: 39%

Lowest 9/26-12/31 precipitation: 4.62”, 2001
Highest 9/26-12/31 precipitation: 27.72”, 1983

Don, I just ran the numbers and NYC set an impressive long term record for measurable precipitation. Today was the 117th day this year with measurable precipitation at NYC through 9-25. The record WAR pattern and tropical moisture pushed NYC over the top.

Most days with measurable precipitation in NYC 1-1 through 9-25

#1...117 days....2018

#2...113 days....1950

#3...110 days....1916

#4...109 days....2003...1996

September 24, 2018

41 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nice. Makes me miss that place. Havent been over there in 9 years, seems like forever. Truly a special country with great people.

It would be my first choice of a place to visit if I were planning a trip to Europe.

September 24, 2018

44 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That's awesome. My family is from Holland, and our ancestoral hometown is Nordwijk, the next town north from Katwijk. Some of the artificial dunes up in that area are massive, and resemble natural rolling hills. That area had massive flooding in the 1950s and since then the Dutch have engineered amazing flood protection systems.

60 minutes did a great story on the flood protection systems across the Netherlands last night. They showed the amazing job that the Dutch did with the dunes at Katwijk.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/storm-water-management-dutch-solution-henk-ovink-hurricane-florence-damage-60-minutes/

September 24, 2018

This is how you build a protective dune.

September 24, 2018

NYC actually came close to the highest barometric pressure on record for September.The record is 30.58 and NYC topped out at 30.50 .

Central Park   PTSUNNY   64  55  72 VRB6G18   30.50S

September 24, 2018

One of the latest Arctic sea ice minimum extents on record. As of 9-23, the NSIDC extent is still holding at 4.594 million sq km. Record warm SST's for this time of year over the Chukchi Sea.

sstanom0.png.205652a5ce809da59ac359ed238067dd.png

September 24, 2018

Low temperatures closer to normal for a few days felt nice. The minimum temperature departure for the Northeast was at a record +5 to +10 through the first 22 days of September. The return of the 70 degree dew points with the heavy rain potential this week will result in very warm minimums again.

1894526041_Screenshot2018-09-24at8_04_43AM.png.e8c0534afe1dfef655da7780c7c59c6d.png