bluewave
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Posts posted by bluewave
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The surge on western Pamlico Sound is approaching the major flooding level. It forced the evacuation of a local TV station.
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=mhx
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=mhx&gage=orln7
WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell discusses the evacuation of her old station, WCTI in New Bern, as Hurricane Florence floodwaters surround the building.
https://www.wral.com/weather/hurricanes/video/17841687/
Live coverage
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Warm minimums really driving the temperature departures this month. Pretty lopsided results so far with all the clouds and high humidity.
LGA
AVG....+3.1
MIN....+4.8
MAX....+1.4
ISP
AVG....+3.8
MIN....+5.8
MAX....+1.9
EWR
AVG....+2.9
MIN....+4.8
MAX....+0.9
ALB
AVG....+4.6
MIN....+6.9
MAX....+2.3
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5 hours ago, gravitylover said:
In the latest visible shot this really is a beautiful storm. Knowing (approximately) what's going to happen over the next few days I hate appreciating it but I can't help it.
Someone on the north side of the Chesapeake area-MD/DEL/NJ coast is getting a heckuva surf day today.
Decent surfing conditions today along the South Shore. A 5-6 foot hurricane swell with light winds.
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2 hours ago, psv88 said:
76/75/80 and steamy. Those showers just added to the jungle feel. Everything is lush again after a week of rain
1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:Finally we did it today! Number 40!
https://classic.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-jfk/KJFK/date/2018-9-12
I dont know how to figure out heat index, Chris, did we get more hours of 90+ heat index?
it's 79 degrees right now with a 76 dew point at JFK.
Closest 90+ heat index was in SNJ with more sun today.
Atlantic City PTSUNNY 83 77 82 E9 30.19 HX 92
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13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:
Chris, did JFK reach their 40th 75+ dew point day today?
Dont know if it'll be enough to get us to 90+ heat index numbers again this year though
Another day with Miami dew points at JFK. It feels really warm for a cloudy day especially during the brief breaks of sun.
Kennedy Intl CLOUDY 77 76 96 VRB5 30.24S
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While we lost the 90 degree highs, the 70 degree + minimums continue. Long Island keeps adding to the record breaking number of 70 degree or higher minimums. Notice how many recent years are near the top of the list.
Highest number of 70 degree or higher minimums for ISP:
#1....39 days....2018
#2....36 days....2010....1980
#3....35 days....2016
#4....34 days....2013....1999
#5....32 days.....2015.....1988
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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:
That 1821 Hurricane really intrigues me and how was it able to maintain its strength with a track so close to the coast.
I just found a great presentation on the 1821 hurricane.
https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/webprogram/Paper257982.html
Tuesday, 6 January 2015: 2:30 PM128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)Megan E. Linkin, Swiss Re America Holding Corporation, Armonk, NYHurricane Sandy, with its unique track, 1,000 mile wide wind field and low central pressure, pushed record breaking storm surge into the New York and New Jersey coasts, destroying businesses, homes and lives in a short 24 hour period. But for all the devastation and damage that Hurricane Sandy brought, its intensity at landfall, measured by 1-minute maximum sustained winds, was equivalent to a minimal Category 1 hurricane. Other events in recent years (Irene, Isabel, Gloria, Bob), while significant, weakened prior to landfall, coming onshore as either Category 1 or Category 2 hurricanes, and not the major hurricanes originally anticipated and feared.History, however, shows us that we may not always be as fortunate. The 1821 hurricane, commonly referred to as the Norfolk � Long Island hurricane, roared through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States in early September, passing over or near major cities and tourism regions such as the Outer Banks, Norfolk, Cape May and New York City. Coastal communities in North Carolina were washed away, ships in Norfolk, VA were pushed ashore and the Delaware Bay flooded Cape May, NJ. On eastern Long Island, the aftermath was described as, "the most awful and desolating ever experienced." The hurricane was a devastating event for the expanse of Northeast United States, with communities, farms and churches laid in ruins from North Carolina to New Hampshire. The hurricane is notable not only for its strength, but its contribution to science; it is the storm that led to the discovery that in the Northern Hemisphere, these weather systems rotate in a counterclockwise direction.
With all existing documentation around the 1821 hurricane referring to a catastrophic, devastating event, and with today's models we can reconstruct a track for this hurricane to understand how it moved up coast, along with its wind field and storm surge field to determine what the loss potential is if the 1821 hurricane recurred today.
Using Swiss Re's proprietary tropical cyclone model, a deterministic wind field and storm surge analogs are developed for the 1821 hurricane. The wind footprint calculated for the 1821 hurricane results in a large area of the Eastern Seaboard being affected by powerful winds and wind gusts; in parts of coastal North Carolina, the wind gusts are in excess of 150 mph, with wind gusts up to 130 mph reaching as far north as Connecticut. Storm surge values for the analog hurricanes range from 11 � 13 feet at The Battery, and up to 25 feet in Atlantic City, NJ.
With trillions of dollars of residential, commercial and automotive exposure currently in the path of such a storm, the loss potential of the 1821 Norfolk-Long Island hurricane exceeds economic losses from other notable East Coast storms, including the 1938 Long Island Express and Hurricane Sandy. Physical economic losses are calculated to be in the range of USD 100 billion; actual economic losses, which include the intangibles, such as lost tax revenue and changes in asset values, are closer to USD 150 billion.
It is imperative that we, as a nation and a society, look into the past to plan for the future, especially peering through the veil of climate change. Hurricanes Irene and Sandy served as harsh reminders that the Eastern Seaboard, particularly the Northeast US, is not immune to hurricane strikes. A recurrence of the 1821 Norfolk Long Island hurricane would be a paradigm shifter, severely and negatively impacting the economy and altering the culture of the oldest part of the United States going forward. Comprehending the potential consequences of historical storms today will help both improve our understanding of the "worst case event," and motivate those in coastal areas to take the necessary steps to prepare for all storms which are possible, even those beyond our current generations' memories.
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Miami dew points return to Montauk.
Montauk N/A 82 75
MIAMI PTSUNNY 89 76
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This May or June through September extended summer pattern has become a common theme during the 2010's.
Warmest 5/1 to 9/10
LGA
#1...75.9....2010
#2...75.4....2018
#3...75.2....2016
#4...74.6....2015...2012
#5...74.1....2007
ISP
#1....71.6...2010
#2....71.1...1999
#3....71.0...2015...2011
#4....70.9...2018
#5....70.8...2016...2012
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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
Surfers do not like onshore gale force winds, the ocean right now is a washing machine. Offshore winds are ideal with calm or very light onshores second. The further north Florence eventually makes it the more influence it will have on turning our winds onshore.
Based on a high end cat 4 heading generally in our direction there will be huge surf here later in the week. Swells of that magnitude lead to washovers that flood beaches and anything near the beach front. They also cause a good amount of erosion. So this storm will definitely be a high impact event for local beaches.
You knew that someone would venture into the early Sandy washing machine before the main event in the evening.
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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
Definitely moderate as the end of my street was flooded and only does so with moderate events. We lucked out with the timing of the biggest swells from Florence arriving later in the week. Had those swells arrived during a moderate coastal flood event there could have been serious erosion issues.
Also had some tree damage here. A strong gust took down a large tree limb. Plenty of leaves and sycamore bark in the streets.
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Coastal flooding just made it to the moderate level here along the Great South Bay. The lowest streets have some flooding.
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16 hours ago, jm1220 said:
Sandy was a somewhat more tropical and larger/much stronger version of the Perfect Storm 1991 (Perfect Storm was 30mb less deep). The mid latitude strong trough phasing into it added considerable energy to it and kept it from weakening over colder water.
I agree that a cat 3 would be more devastating, but it would be in a smaller area. Sandy pressure-wise was about cat 3 and was a massive sized storm that piled up tremendous water. The NW path also took that surge right into NY Harbor. A paralleling the coast track would be the worst. Irene could've been horrendous had it not been eaten up by dry air as it came into NC and weakening rapidly. Better atmospheric conditions would've had it come into NC as a strong cat 3 and maybe up here as a cat 2 still. Same for Gloria.
Sandy and Gloria actually had a similar surge around 8 feet near the outer coast of Long Beach. But Gloria came in near low tide so the actual tide level was about 3-4 feet lower on the beach side. Sandy had a record wide wind field. Combined with the historic track, this ensured that the highest surge would coincide with high tide. I also believe the two high tide cycles involved allowed higher water levels to pile up in the back bays with Sandy.
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22 hours ago, LibertyBell said:
Chris what was the reason we didn't get a true baking summer this year though even though the WAR was so strong? Was it because of the developing el nino? Next summer might be hotter than this one- summers after el ninos historically are.
I think it came down to the wind direction. The ridge axis expanded so far to the north, that the flow was more from the SE than normal for such a warm summer. That is why JFK had such high humidity and didn't finish in the top ten warmest of summers. Other stations where the SE flow didn't impact the summer heat potential as much finished in the top 10 warmest. It's why there was so much variance between the stations.
JJA 2018 summer temperature rankings:
LGA....#4 warmest on record
JFK....#15
ISP.....#5
BDR....#3
EWR...#13
HPN.....#8
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4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:
That’s a pretty amazing feat
Miami recently set their record back in 2015 and early 2016 at 287 days.
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7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:
57 with light rain here. Coolest it has been since June. Feels amazing
The at or above 60 degree streak just ended at 95 days for LGA. This was the 5th highest number of days on record.
#1....117 days...2005
#2....104 days...2008
#3....102 days...2016....2010
#4....98 days.....2015
#5....95 days.....2018....1993
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5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:
Long Beach I understand and I get it. If the setup is exactly as it is pictured today on Tuesday I say yes this is Historical and will do something no other storm has EVER done. I just think there is still a lot of time and things can still change I do not think for a minute that this is the final solution.
The ridge is just too strong to allow an escape OTS. Notice how the track keeps correcting south in response to the WAR.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/FLORENCE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
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7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:
The oft-cited sample size is 79 against near-infinite possible atmospheric states. Climo has no physical influence on future events, and since we have a clear, widely progged mechanism for steering the system westward, it's almost (if not already) time to completely discard historical analogs as a forecasting tool.
Past analogs haven't had much relevance to the 2010's extreme patterns.
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It continues to look like the Carolinas area will be the area that Florence hits. Check out how the WAR to the north will be near record levels for this time of year. This ridge is so extreme this year, that Florence will be the first recorded hurricane to reach the U.S. coast from that position.
Updating yesterday's tidbit... as of Friday morning's advisory, 79 named storms have passed within 200 nautical miles of #Florence's position since 1851, and not one has ever come close to the U.S. coast. pic.twitter.com/IZurMUWhXh
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Top 5 warmest first week of September across the region.
EWR....#4....81.1
LGA.....#2.....81.0
JFK......#6....78.1
ISP......#4....76.4
BDR.....#4....77.4
HPN......#5...75.7
PHL......#3...81.4
ACY......#2...80.7
ALB.....#2...76.8
POU....#4....75.4
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1 minute ago, uncle W said:
1932 had a colder 30 day period in NYC than 1997-98 and another year that escapes me...the late summer, fall and winter of 1931-32 is up near the top for warmth during that period...
as a kid growing up and living thru the 1980's I would never have dreamed or wish cast the amount of snowy winters since 1993...not to mention the 20" storms and 50" seasons...
The 96-97 to 01-02 snow drought was brutal. I don't think any of us could have imagined back then the remarkable snow run that would follow.
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1 hour ago, uncle W said:
the 1880's and 1890's still have heat records still on the books...1881's 101 degree day is second only to the 102 in 1953...1895 was the latest for the hottest temp of the year on 9/22 and the 97 degrees that day is the latest 97 degree day on record...1898 for its warmest start...
The one big monthly warmth record that still holds on from the earlier era is the January 1932 record of 43.2. The most impressive winter warmth has occurred in December and February during the 2010's.
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^^^^^^
September has become the 4th month of Summer during the 2010's. LGA recorded the most 70 degree or warmer Septembers of any decade. Only 2013 finished cooler than 70 degrees.
LGA
2017....71.5....#9 warmest
2016....73.8.....#4
2015....74.1.....#3
2014....70.4
2013....68.1
2012....70.7
2011....70.7
2010...72.5....#7
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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:
Bluewave, was today JFK's 40th 75+ dew point day and did JFK reach or exceed 200 hours with a heat index of 90 or higher? I see the dew point at JFK at 6 AM is 74 so it looks like today is another 75+ dew point day.
Thursday was the 39th day with a 75 degree or higher dew point. JFK surpassed 2010 for total heat index hours of 90 or higher with 199. That goes to show what record breaking humidity can do with many fewer actual 90 degree days.
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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
Flood level to 8.51 feet now.
https://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=02084472
https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/FEV/