bluewave

Models continuing with record low May 500 mb heights this weekend. The Euro has a -5 SD event with the TPV. So maybe we can see some flurries if the precipitation coincides with the lowest temperatures in the morning. Would be a tie with 1977 for the latest trace of snow at the coast. 
 

Euro hinting at possibly the lowest 500mb heights on record for May next weekend. The TPV drops into the Northeast with a -4 to -5 SD departure. TPV related storm details can be difficult beyond 120 hrs. But portions of the Northeast can see late season snow along with impressive May cold for most. 

Euro continuing with the late freeze idea for next weekend N and W of NYC. Be interesting to see if NYC can actually drop below 40 degrees. Sometimes the OP Euro is too cool for NYC beyond 5 days out. But with the TPV dipping into New England, maybe NYC can pull off 37 to 39 degrees.

Newark made it to 80 with the warm downslope flow.

Newark Liberty PTSUNNY   80  52  37 W15G22    

We get our transient warm up this weekend. But one of the coldest 6-10 forecasts we see this time of year. The blocking pattern right across the pole is as strong as it gets for May.
 

Looks like mid to upper 70’s today. Probably the warmest day for the first half of the month. While it will feel warm, temperatures will be much cooler than the record heat two years ago.

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
440 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2018

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. 
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 2001.

Finally getting some more spring-like 70’s this weekend. Models hinting at the first May 30’s in NYC since the 1970’s next weekend. This would mean an unusually late freeze for some outlying areas if it verifies.

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what are some of our longer streaks recent, Chris?  I'm thinking Feb 2014, Dec 2010-Jan 2011, etc.

For the warm season, maybe Summer 2009 or Summer 1992 (after the Pinatubo eruption?)

 

 

Our recent long streaks were 16 days in November 2018 and 22 days in March 2018. 

16th day in a row with a negative temperature departure in NYC. This is a rare feat after April 15th. Most of our streaks this long have occurred from November into March.

Sun is out now on Long Island. Looks like the heaviest rains will move through tonight.

This was the first April that Newark didn’t reach 70 degrees.It was also the 3rd lowest monthly max for NYC. First time that Islip stayed below 65 degrees in April. Also the first year  that both January and March had a warmer monthly maximum temperature than April.
 

No surprise that this was one of the cloudiest Aprils on Long Island around noontime.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=12&year=2020&month=4&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Right back to our default -EPO pattern since 2013. Just goes to show how unusual the strong winter +EPO was for this era. Occasionally the -EPO becomes strong enough to flatten out the SE Ridge. This is when we get the odd cold departure month. This EPO reversal returned the PDO back to positive territory after a dip negative. 
 

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I am starting to think some of those calls for a hot summer "could" be in jeopardy. Maybe more of a muggy, warm and humid summer w/plenty of rain and storms?? Still early to call but we'll see.

All the summers since the super El Niño in 2016 had near to record high dew points. The only summer with slightly cooler departures in the 0 to -0.5  range was 2017. The 2016 summer was a top 10 warmest across the area. Numerous top 10 warmest Julys and Augusts during  2016, 2018, and 2019. 

54 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Picked up 0.11" of rain for the day yesterday.

Current temp 44

3rd highest number of days with measurable precipitation through the 26th in NYC. But the actual amounts were slightly below normal for the month so far. 
 

NYC...3.77....-0.17
 

Maybe we can sneak in some 70’s from Friday into the weekend. But it looks like another cool down in about a week to 10 days. 

12 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I would have expected all of those seasons to have warmed even more than what you show here.

When you give the deviations here, are they increases for the last decade 2010-2019 vs. the 30 year averages 1951-1980?

You need at least 30-40 years to generate a meaningful trend with the NCDC charts. 10 years is too short a period of time to use on the site. You can generate charts for a wide variety of regions or cites.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/5/1981-2019?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1981&endtrendyear=2019

Spring has warmed less than all other seasons across our area since 1981.

Local seasonal warming since 1981

DJF.......+0.7°F Decade

MAM.....+0.4°F/Decade

JJA........+0.6°F/Decade

SON.......+0.8°F/Decade

EPS pretty bullish on maintaining the MJO 1-2 standing wave until further notice. This has translated into the blocking and Eastern Trough during April. It may be a result of the lingering record +IOD SST warmth from last fall. The rapid rebound to record SST’s north of Australia had a big influence on our winter pattern. So it will be interesting to see if events originating in the IO last fall can still have some effect on our summer regime.

26 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

No 70s in Newark in April after a historically warm winter is honestly one of the most shocking temp statistics I can remember for this area, and that's saying a lot.

This is probably the most significant monthly low max across the area  since February 2015. We just don’t have the big -10 departure and top 2 monthly coldest finish. Since these cold records are few and far between, they really stand out. All the record warm records tend to run together and people get used to them.

Some of the lowest April maximum temperatures on record across the region this month.

This is the coolest April average and maximum temperature in NYC following a 40+ Dec-Mar. The only other April with close to a similar monthly max was 1998. That was also the coolest summer out of the group. Be interesting to see if we avoid the big heat of most other summers that followed such warm DJFM periods.

Newark number of 90 degree days

2016...40.....5th highest

2012...33.....11th highest

2002...41.....4th highest

1998...21

1991...41.....4th highest

26 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

For  the statisticians in this group, when was the last time the warmest temperature in January was warmer than the warmest temperature in April?  There's a good shot at it for both NYC and ISP.

This would be a first.

18 minutes ago, uncle W said:

its been a long time since NYC had temperatures in the 30's in May...1978 was the last year that happened...1976-77-78 all had temps in the 30's in May...

Yeah, that record has been tough to beat. Numerous low 40’s for the May monthly minimum temperature. With all the rain in the forecast, the cooler maximums  will probably be more impressive for NYC than the minimums. 
 

TEMPERATURE (F)
 YESTERDAY
  MAXIMUM         52    341 PM  86    2007  64    -12       77
  MINIMUM         40    820 AM  29    1872  47     -7       56
  AVERAGE         46                        56    -10       67

Models continuing with the Eastern Trough right into May. 

April so far

Forecast