bluewave

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Why is there such a strong marine heatwave centered in the WPAC? Why there?

We’ll probably need better climate models in the future to give us that answer. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00301-2

This work must be open to the idea that climate models, as currently formulated, may be deficient in their representations of past and future changes in tropical Pacific climate. Until this issue is resolved, many aspects of future projections that are strongly influenced by the tropical Pacific – including future regional climate, teleconnected climate risks, and the oceanic uptake of CO2 – will be highly uncertain.

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I‘m talking mainly E US, esp in winter. It isn’t just seasonal. The major MR models as a whole have been too cold much more often than too warm for years. That’s likely why, for example, that there’s more often than not a NW correction of surface lows as we get closer in forecast time. When they have the lows too far SE, they usually prog it to be too cold in the E US. Then they come NW in later runs to match the warmer reality.
 
 I suspect it is due to the very warm WPAC that @bluewaveoften mentions. This often causes the atmosphere to act like the MJO is in the MC even when it isn’t. This very warm WPAC has according to a pro met I’ve talked to helped to enhance the “SE ridge” (similar to what the MJO MC phases do), something the models usually underestimate for some reason. If the MR models are too cold, there’s no reason to expect the seasonals to not be similar.

While it’s a bit early for me to start thinking about next winter, the winter warmth since the 15-16 super El Niño has been simply astounding. There had never been a sustained 9 winter period in our modern instrumental period back to the late 1800s this warm before in the Eastern US. My guess is that the shift is related to dramatic warming in Western Pacific which began back in 2014. This is in concert with more frequent and higher amplitude MJO 4-7 phases. Even with the El Niño this winter the Aleutians ridge near the Dateline was unusually strong. This has been a repeating theme since 15-16. It also works to amplify the ridge and warmth in the East.

All the seasonal model winter forecasts since 15-16  have been significantly too cold. This is probably related to the models not having the capability to factor in the historic SST changes since 2014 in the Pacific when they have been making their seasonal forecasts. So it will be interesting to see if this pattern keeps repeating in coming winters or something happens to shift away from this persistent 9 winter pattern. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable.

In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first EOF.

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave potential rain event next weekend? 

Next few days we could see some localized pockets over .50 with the warm front.

3 hours ago, chubbs said:

Yes it is surprising to see SST increasing recently. Atlantic MDR has reached early Aug temps.

I guess this is to be expected given the acceleration of ocean warming as per this recent study. But the timing of this most recent spike will probably need some further investigation. It would be interesting to know which specific variables were involved so we could forecast these individual temperature jumps more successfully. 
 

It will be interesting to see what is causing the the global SSTs to peak a month later than average continuing at record levels.

You know spring is progressing when we stop getting afternoon highs in the 40s with rain behind the backdoor cold fronts. Looks like most areas away from the immediate shore will reach the 80s by Monday. Then a weak backdoor for Tuesday with highs still in the 60s and 70s eastern sections. It’s possible with some compressional warming that someone in NJ SW  of the backdoor on Tuesday makes a run on 90°.

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Would be funny how often times in Long Beach our hottest temps during a heat wave everywhere else would be as it’s ending after the cold front passes and the wind turns N with the hot air from the city coming through. 

I had some interesting temperature observations during all my years back in Long Beach. One day we had a high of 85° through around 5pm while we were south of the sea breeze front. It was around 100° near NYC. A line of strong to severe storms formed and a gust frost developed. It shifted the winds to W to NW and my thermometer jumped from 85° to 97° in about 5 minutes. Another day the sea breeze front only made it to the boardwalk. It was in the upper 80s on the beach with a slight WSW flow and a westerly flow north of Shore road with mid 90s. But most days during the summer we were usually well south of the sea breeze front. Ambrose jets were very common with plenty of blowing sand right onto the streets near the beach. 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

hey, maybe we can use this to define new record highs?

does Nassau county have something like this for the area around Mineola?

I believe that 108° In Mineola during 2010 was probably the highest temperature on record for Long Island. But the site shut down in 2011. Ed was the president of the Long Island Weather Observers. The site was in operation from 1938 to 2011. His observations were featured every evening on News 12 for years. 
 

Cold Snap Tests Service Agencies

The New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com › New York › Long Island

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this how it's often hottest just after a cold front passes?

 

Usually somewhere between JFK and LGA eastward along the LIE out to near Commack just north and west of where the sea breeze front sets up.

Even areas of Long Island closer to the LIE could reach the 80s on Monday ahead of any backdoor cold front. 

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what caused the crazy May 9, 2020 arctic shot, Chris?

was it the strongest arctic shot in May since May 9, 1977 or maybe even stronger?

 

The winter was dominated by the record  polar vortex over the Arctic which got driven south by the strong -EPO block in early May.  

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

As there is less and less cold air available to tap wouldn't these late season freezes be less dramatic? 

My guess is that the much stronger spring blocking at times in recent years has been compensating to some extent. The hard freeze last May over the interior occurred with one of the strongest -EPO +PNA blocks on record for that time of year. But the stronger spring blocking at times can’t affect the earlier arrival of spring. So we get these overlaps leading to damaging freezes in susceptible arras. 

Figures the first record low of the year down to 33° at Islip would wait until late April.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp

Islip

Low 33

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I think the increase in frosts/freeze is just one of perception. If you look at NWS Pittsburgh, for an example, you can see freeze warnings used to be very rare in the spring prior to 2012. And it wasn't because it was warmer at that time. To the contrary, it was because they were not issued until May 1 in the south and May 15 in the mountains and north, because that's when the growing season used to begin. Now the growing season begins in April (or even March, as in 2012) and voila! --- Suddenly there's numerous freeze warnings each and every spring.

It is true that 2020 had a lot of freeze warnings in May, but a good chunk of those were relegated to the mountains and north country and would not have been issued pre-2012.

If you look at the actual data, you will see in the 19th century and early 20th century, it was common for low temperatures for the ENTIRE month of April to average below freezing in many of these areas, which means the majority of nights dropped below freezing in those months. Now in the same areas, there's a big hullabaloo with the rogue night dropping to 30F in mid to late April.

You are missing the point that I made. The first 70° and 80° degree days of the season are becoming earlier at a faster rate than the last freeze is becoming earlier. So this creates more damaging freeze potential in the spring due to the increasing overlap. This is why the most damaging interior Northeast freeze on record for the spring occurred in May 2023. This works for many stations across the Northeast where the spring bloom is becoming earlier faster than the last freeze is becoming earlier.  Some spots have a 3 week to one month faster start to spring while the last freeze is still within a week of where it was during the 1951-1980 climate normals period. Now if you go back to the late 1800s off course the last freeze was later. But that really isn’t relevant to the current day agricultural interests which have been sustaining spring freeze losses. We have also seen this is the Southeast with earlier starts to spring in February only to be subject to damaging freezes in March. 

This has been getting more attention from the literature in Europe recently but the same thing happened in the Northeast last May.

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-caused-climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-early-growing-period-frost-in-france/

In early April 2021 several days of severe frost affected central Europe following an anomalously warm March. This led to very severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees, particularly in France, where young leaves had already unfolded in the warm early spring. Using published peer-reviewed methods we analysed how human-induced climate change affected the temperatures as extreme as observed in spring 2021 over central France, where many vineyards are located. We found that although climate change made the temperatures of the observed event less cold than they would have been without the burning of fossil fuels over the last centuries, the fact that climate change has also led to an earlier start of the growing season means that frost damage in young leaves has become more likely due to human-induced climate change.

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost

SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen.

Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers.

In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph.

To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. 

“We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.”

The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be.

“I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said.

The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. 

Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear.

The last freeze at Newark hasn’t changed since 1950 but the first 70° and 80° days of the season are arriving much earlier.

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and also the clouds, which were pretty low here this morning.

Chris, what's the latest that we've seen 32 degrees at the park or city airports over the past 50 years or so? I'm curious about how we're seeing mid to upper 30s occurring later now than they used to, but our last freeze always seems to be in late March now.

 

The main challenge for the area is that the last freeze date is similar to 1951-1980 but first 70s and 80s of spring are arriving much earlier. So this has lead to the damaging spring freezes across the northeast especially in the interior. The historic damaging freeze last May to our north matched the pattern of early season warmth causing blooms which were followed by a damaging hard freeze. We can understand that as the climate continues to warm spring will arrive earlier with the quicker blooms. But the last freeze date has not changed as much and needs some further investigation. My guess is that the much stronger spring blocking from the EPO to NAO regions recently is allowing the last freeze date to remain more constant relative to earlier eras.    
 

I will use Newark as an example of this pattern that shows up to varying degrees across the region.

Newark

2010-2023

Last 32°…. 04-04…last 30s…04-21

First 70°…..03-07…first 80°….03-31

1951-1980

Last 32°…..04-04…..last 30s…04-22

First 70°.….03-26….first 80°…..04-22

Tonight looks like it will be colder especially in the areas that radiate well. 20s possible in the Pine Barrens at FOK as the big high moves over the area. So a freeze is possible in the outlying areas. The CAA this morning had a bit of an easterly component and was weaker with some clouds which came in warmer than guidance. 

14 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

"Experts" did not predict the Arctic would be "ice-free" (< 1e6 km2) by the summer of 2013. The most aggressive prediction I've seen using a broad based consilience of evidence approach so far is from the IPCC AR6 report in which they say "The Arctic is likely to be practically sea ice-free in September at least once before 2050." This is a significant downward revision from their 2070 target in the early 2000's and 2100 target in the 1990's. It is important to point out that the IPCC has a poor track record of Arctic sea ice declines. For example, in 2001 they said annual mean Arctic sea ice extent would not drop below 10.5e6 km2 until 2040. It first happened in 2007 followed by 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2023. And this is systematic of scientific community in general. Scientists have woefully underestimated Arctic sea ice decline.

BTW...the only "expert" I know of that gave an early prediction was Peter Wadhams in a The Guardian article from 2013. His prediction was immediately criticized by the scientific community as not being supported by the evidence. It's also strange that Wadhams' own research at the time only stated within the next 30 years [Wadhams 2012] so it's not clear to me how this discrepancy gets resolved. Did he actually say what The Guardian said he said? If he did then why did he give a prediction to The Guardian that contradicts his prediction given in his own peer reviewed publications? 

Extent has been changing more slowly now that most of the older multiyear sea ice is gone. The 2007 season marked a fundamental shift in Arctic sea ice to this new state. No matter what summer conditions have occurred since then, we have not been able to get close to pre-2007 ice in thickness or extent. So it will probably turn out to be a bigger turning point in the history of the Arctic than the first technically ice free season under 1 million square km.
 

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/with-thick-ice-gone-arctic-sea-ice-changes-more-slowly

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, Chris, what's their latest freeze on record-- May 31st I think?

and wow 42 degrees is VERY cold for JFK on May 18th!

 

 

5-22-02 was their latest freeze.

On 4/21/2024 at 1:40 PM, LibertyBell said:

Natural gas isn't natural and isn't safe either, it's carcinogenic.

We need to make it extremely difficult for the fossil fuel cartels to do business, including labeling them as terrorists and making life miserable for them-- including seizing their assets and properties.  Look what they have been doing to Donzinger.  We need to take away their rights to litigate too.

 

Germany isn't a bastion of renewable energy-- I see they've been building more coal mines and removing nuclear as an option-- they are headed in the wrong direction.

 

Sometimes we just have to do the best we can with the options we have at any given time. Natural gas is much better for air pollution than coal is. I used to live a few miles from the Natural gas generating electricity station in Island Park. It was much better for the air quality than having a coal plant would have been. 
 

Between 2005 and 2016, the shift away from coal saved an estimated 26,610 lives and 570 million bushels of crops

https://gpsnews.ucsd.edu/shutdown-of-coal-fired-plants-in-u-s-saves-lives-and-improves-crop-yields/

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow how cold did it get down here last May?

we've been having a lot of these since 2020.

The 18th was the 5th latest freeze on record for FOK.

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway

The lack of an extreme drought since 2002 has been the only reason we haven’t made it to 110°+ yet.  Places like Olympia, Washington did it back in 2021 with the extreme drought out West. Notice that they beat their previous record high by 6°. That would be something like 114° at Newark and surrounding locations if we ever beat the 2010-2011 all-time highs by a similar margin. 2010-2011 before the August 2011 deluge was just a run of the mill dry pattern and we still put up such big numbers. 

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the problem with late season freezes and frosts is also about perennials that bloom early because of unseasonal warm weather that happened earlier and then they get damaged by the out of season freezes and frosts

 

One of the greatest challenges is that while spring is arriving earlier, we can still get these late season freezes especially in the interior Northeast. Warmer winters and and quicker starts to spring cause an earlier bloom. Then the earlier blooms are susceptible to very damaging hard freezes like last May. We had much earlier 80s and 90s than usual last April before the record hard freeze in the interior last May. 
 

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost

SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen.

Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers.

In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph.

To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. 

“We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.”

The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be.

“I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said.

The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. 

Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear fruit.

27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I never like seeing that massive 500 low east of us like that. From that view maybe we’re safe for a couple days but it’s not far off. 

We can probably begin to plant the annuals after this weekend since the next couple of days will probably be the last freeze for the colder spots around the metro area until next fall.

17 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Definitely possible if we trend drier. Also tend to be a little warmer than guidance once the sun's out. 

 

Nightfall, especially by me, the sugar sand loves to radiate off throughout the night. Could see mid 20s. Good shot at a 50 degrees temperature change. 

The 850 mb temperature forecast from the Euro next Monday would support highs near 90° for the usual warm spots in NJ. But the big wild card will be whether we can push the backdoor far enough northeast. So we’ll need to get into enough sun and SW flow for the higher temperatures to be realized. But we should still have a shot at 80s even if we can’t make it into the deep SW flow.

Near record late April temperature drop from Wednesday into Thursday for a little over 12 hours. Highs Wednesday afternoon in the mid 60s to around 70°. Then temperatures falling as much as 35° into the 30s by Thursday morning. The usual colder spots could see a freeze or even hard freeze the further north and west you go into the interior Northeast.