bluewave

Looks like the next chance for 95° to 100° heat will be early next week as the 500 mb ridge builds again. Models have more of a southerly flow. So the warmest spots should be further from the sea breeze and coast.

 

More top 10 monthly warmth around the area. Islip and Sussex, NJ recorded their warmest Junes on record. Since the new 1991-2020 climate normals are so warm, all it took was a +3.2 at Islip and +3.4 at Sussex.

On 6/27/2025 at 1:54 PM, Wannabehippie said:

Is there any link to this news? I want to be able to share it around.

Thanks.

 

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's hard to believe Central Park being 5 degrees cooler than me but here we are.

I'll also note that even when we went completely overcast here for an hour I was still 3 degrees hotter than Central Park's highest temperature of the day!

 

Measuring the temperatures under a mature stand of trees will always be 3° to 5° cooler than in a grassy clearing on sunny and warm days.

NYC was usually pretty close to the surrounding sites like Newark from 1936 to 1980. This is when the thermometer wasn’t underneath trees.  Some heatwaves NYC was warmer than Newark. Many of the 100°+ readings from that era would have only been 98°-99°with a similar sitting to what NYC has seen since the increased tree growth in the last 10 years. 

Tree growth was slowly becoming an issue from the 1980s into the early 1990s. Then there was a greater shift in 1995 when the new ASOS was installed. This became much more pronounced since 2014 along with the continuing tree growth. 
 

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's where I experienced the April 1982 Blizzard!!

That still remains one of my all-time favorite snowstorms. Probably the most electrified blizzard. The record cold and snow in April 1982 would have been impressive in the 1880s or 1780s. 

On 6/28/2025 at 10:02 AM, LibertyBell said:

I grew up near Prospect Park, and spent my weekends playing frisbee in there growing up :-)

 

Yeah, great part of NYC. The whole area from around Prospect Park to the Brooklyn Waterfront has seen a real renaissance over the last 20 years. Gorgeous views especially when we get some snow.

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This was my favorite June, we even topped 2010 records!!

It’s possible that the 103° recoded out at Baiting Hollow could be the new all-time high for any month on Eastern Long Island. 
 

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

To be fair, summers should always be judged by number of 90/95/100 degree days.

This June finished 3rd for 90° days at ISP and 1st for 95° and 100° days. The 70° day low count came in at 2nd place. This June set the new all-time high at 101° by a full 5°.The low max of 77° tied for the highest in June. 

27 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

28th warmest next to 4th warmest

70°+ Junes are becoming the new normal for Long Island.

Another top 10 warmest month for the Northeast.

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like it maxes out over France.. I bet bluewaves 500mb anomaly record maps show historic ridging there. 

My guess is that this that the expanding subtropical ridges across the planet from Japan to the Eastern US and Europe as the climate warms are driving these multiple records. Notice how the EA has become so positive over time. So the +NAO could be driven by the expansion of these ridges. Plus the feedback from the record marine heatwaves east of Japan across the Atlantic to the Mediterranean. 
 

The Mediterranean is now warmer than it typically was in August during the recent 1982–2015 climate period. And it’s no wonder when you look at the atmospheric circulation: a strong upper-level ridge has parked over the western Mediterranean, allowing the marine heatwave to develop.

 

ALT

 

ALT

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I hope we don't repeat because that was brutal. Working outside was not fun those days, I don't know how southern folks deal with this 

Yeah, working outside in that type of heat is brutal. I rode a few miles on the Long Beach Boardwalk back in July 1999 with 100° and a 75° dewpoint. It was pretty intense. But I actually enjoyed the 0° with 50 mph gusts in January 1985 more. 
 

58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models go for another strong ridge after the holiday but it's centered SW of us vs directly over and then it retros west. 

If that holds true then we'll avoid another 100+ stretch. 

Yeah, models starting  to show a retrogression pattern. A piece of the Plains heat may try to come east in early July for a few days in the mid to perhaps upper 90s. But if the ridge axis remains west, then it won’t be nearly as hot as this last week was. That would follow the more historic precedent of no follow ups above 103° so soon. So maybe 95° to 99° for a day or two before the ridge pulls back. Then it’s possible that the WAR retrogrades in mid to late July with more 95° to 100° heat here. But hopefully nothing as strong as we just saw in late June. 

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

The PDO continues to plunge:

 The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5!

The record ridge over the WPAC driving the steep -PDO decline has resulted in the earliest end to the rainy season that the west of Japan has ever seen. Also part of the pattern which drove the all-time June heat the heat in the East a few days ago. So even with a neutral ENSO it’s creating a very strong La Niña background pattern. Very impressive forcing over the Maritime Continent.

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/general-news/20250627-266163/

Rainy season appears to have ended in various parts of western Japan, it was announced Friday.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, the season ended in the southern Kyushu region 18 days earlier than usual and 19 days earlier than last year. In the northern Kyushu region, the season ended 22 days earlier than usual and 20 days earlier than last year.

The Shikoku region saw the season finish 20 days earlier than average and 20 days earlier than last year, and the Chugoku region was 22 days earlier than average and 24 days earlier than last year. In the Kinki region, the season finished 22 days earlier than average and 21 days earlier than last year. With the exception of southern Kyushu, this marks the earliest end of the rainy season in western Japan since records began in 1951.

11 hours ago, rclab said:

Thank you so much BW. I sent it  to my daughter. A portion of the video shows Congress street park. The small row houses shown were actually carriage houses for the transportation use of the wealthy families who lived in the brownstone residences opposite them. The park is the result of those homes being demolished to make way for a multi family high rise apartment building project that was supposed to be built there. It was delayed, then stopped.The park was the positive legacy. The carriage houses were converted to cottage residences. The pine trees lined up against the fence were post holiday waiting for recycling. The snow gives even the harshest urban setting a touch of beauty. I pray my grandchildren will not need a dated half century video to see it. Thank you again, BW. As always ….

Beautiful collection of photos. There is so much Brooklyn history there going back to the Dutch settlement. The neighborhoods from around Prospect Park back to through your area up to Williamsburg contain some of the most sough-after urban real estate in the United States. I was able to find a great old photo from the Blizzard of 1888.

https://www.brownstoner.com/history/blizzard-1888-new-york-brooklyn-snow-storm-history-environmental-subway/

Out in the snow in Cobble Hill, possibly Clinton Street near Amity Street. Photo via Brooklyn Public Library

12 minutes ago, rclab said:

 Over half century ago I thought as you do and wanted desperately to live as you describe. I didn’t want to live so that when I coughed a neighbor could reach over and pat my back. Now nearing the end of my eighth decade I’m better off living with all I need within a short walk. Perhaps the present inner city environment is a bit like our ancestors. Cave drawing becoming graffiti. Depression, anxiety, anger as side effects of a green less environment can not be disputed. I just wanted to imagine how nice it would be to see an urban environment with buildings that resemble forested mountains. Stay well and thank you for your response. As always ….

You live in a great neighborhood. Cobble Hill is one of the most in demand places to live in Brooklyn. Some people like a more urban setting and others more rural. You can be happy in many different types of environments.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DEf_vA7B4Fm/

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a general steam bath pattern. 92/75 is no fun here either. 

Unfortunately, the 12z guidance wants to reload another 594+ ridge in about 10 days. I was hoping we could get a break from the 100° heat. But it looks like the pattern may have other ideas. Past instances of 103° to 105° heat didn’t usually have such a quick follow up of the ridge rebuilding. So maybe we can keep it more in the 95° to 100° range in early to mid-July rather than pushing 105° again. But who knows for sure with this climate. 

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need less buildings  like upstate NY.

Upstate NY is turning into one of the most in demand real estate markets as we may be seeing the beginning of a reverse migration process.

Continuation of the same pattern into late June. Another weekend with chances for rain but no washout. Saturday looks like the best chance for scattered convection. Drier on Sunday. Then mid 90s on Monday just inland from sea breeze front west of NYC. 

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

But even by around 1890 to 1900 large cities were beginning to display an urban heat island.

Manhattan UHI peaked in 1910 right before the population density began to decline.

The NAM is finally getting replaced after they stop updating it in March 2017.

Public Information Statement 25-41

National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD

845 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

To: Subscribers:

-NOAA Weather Wire Service

-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

-NOAAPORT

Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From: Richard Bandy

Acting Director

NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center

Subject: Soliciting Comments on Proposed Discontinuation of the North

American Mesoscale (NAM) model and other Regional Modeling Systems to be

Replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) through July 26,

2025.

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) at the National Centers for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is working towards replacing the North

American Mesoscale (NAM) model, the High Resolution Window (HiresW) aside

from the Guam domain, the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) and

the North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE) systems with the

implementation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in early 2026.

The NWS is seeking comments on this proposed change through July 26,

2025.

This transition to RRFS would provide an hourly updating modeling system

over a North America region at 3 km horizontal grid spacing, which,

combined with the model retirements, would greatly unify and simplify the

“convective scale” (approximately 3 km grid spacing) regional models

within the NWS operational modeling suite.

As a deterministic system running to 84 h, the RRFS would fully retire

the NAM, and nearly fully retire the HiresW (aside from the Guam domain).

As an ensemble forecast system, the RRFS Ensemble Forecast System (REFS)

would fully retire the HREF and NARRE systems.

The deterministic RRFS generates full domain output at 3 km grid spacing,

and subset grid output over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and

Alaska (AK) (at 3 km grid spacing), and Hawaii (HI) and Puerto Rico (PR)

(at 2.5 km grid spacing). The RRFS will also provide output from a

separate 1.5 km RRFS fire weather run, with output provided over a 5 x 5

degree rotated latitude longitude region. Details of the RRFS output

grids are available in

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/rrfs_info/rrfs_grids.txt

Relative differences between RRFS output products and the proposed-to-be-

retired system products will be discussed individually by the modeling

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

unfortunately it also means less extremely hot days so our climate is becoming compressed to higher mins and less high temperatures of 95/100 or more.  1949 must have had lower low temperatures to balance out the 8 high temperatures of 100+ at EWR and 5 high temperatures of 99+ at NYC.

 

1949 had record August cold despite the 100° days. So in those days, the heat tended to get balanced out with cold. Plus the following 1950 summer was the 6th coldest on record.
 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2025-06-25DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2025-06-25DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe this will cycle back to more 40s-60s type long heatwaves? If not that, maybe a 1993 or 1999 type heatwave (which is still relatively recent), 1999 had two very long super heatwaves and the one extreme heatwave in 1993 really stands out.

 

Those heatwaves were all about severe droughts since it was a much cooler climate era. Just look at how many summers we had back then when even the warmest parts of NJ couldn’t make it to 20 days reaching 90° in a season. We haven’t seen a summer in NJ with under 20 days reaching 90° since 2014. These days the warm spots in NJ seldom get under 30 days even during our cooler summers. 

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think 1993 and 1999 were in drought patterns too weren't they Chris? We had much drier summers back then.  July 1999 was one of the hottest months I have ever experienced.  July 1993 right up there too.

Yeah, all the lawns in Long Beach during July 1999 turned brown. 1999 to 2002 was the last time that the NYC reservoirs ran low. These days flooding has become more of a concern than drought. 

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think this week demonstrated that Long Island can be just as hot as New Jersey if the ridge is strong enough.  This intense heat was like what we had in 2011.  The heat we have had since then wasn't strong enough to overcome the ocean like this one was.

1988 the heat wasn't nearly as intense as what we had in 1993 or 1999 or 2010 or 2011 or what we just had now.

1988 was all about duration. It’s what happens with drought feedback. This wetter pattern is why we don’t get those very long extended heatwaves anymore. But we can still get shorter and more intense ones like the last few days.