bluewave

While it still looks like generally warmer weather next week than we have seen recently, it may not get quite as warm as models were indicating a few days ago. As we can often see this time of year, back doors have a way of popping up the closer in we get to a forecast period. 
 

New run stronger backdoor nearby

Old run weaker backdoor

On 4/12/2024 at 6:03 AM, chubbs said:

Not that we have placed ourselves in a good position, with warming accelerating just as we approach 1.5C warming; which means we are leaving our comfortable Holocene climate.

That’s why we probably need to put more focus on adaptation to a warmer climate that we have built our civilization on to date. But it becomes a sticky issue since the topic of money is involved. Increasing extreme weather events are costly to society for numerous reasons including more expensive property reinsurance which directly affects the insurance rates consumers pay. It’s great that we have developed early weather detection methods which save more lives. But the increasing cost burden of a more extreme climate is difficult since the topic of money gets processed through a more polarized societal filter due to the introduction of politics. Plus forced migrations throughout history due to extremes such as droughts or heat have been proven to add a destabilizing factor to societal systems. Can’t even imagine what a future scramble will look like when coastal cities eventually become uninhabitable due to rising sea levels. This is not to say that we can’t find ways to adapt since we are such a clever species. But it may very well come with a steep price tag.

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Chris,

 My main point is that I feel the article mentioning “unprecedented” for a triple could have been written better. It kind of sounded sensationalist to me, but that’s just my opinion. Regardless, I agree with you that the study to which it referred has some valid points. So, I’ll let this go.

I hear you. Sometimes press releases are written in a way that doesn’t always directly relate to the valid points that you mention. 

34 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

It's a pretty big deal if true. Hansen name dropped Mann as an example of a scientists who are dismissive of this hypothesis in his latest monthly email. So there is some friendly debate in the climate science community right now. I think Schmidt said we'll know within a year if we've been underestimating the warming all along.

There seems to be a few issues at hand here not expressly stated In this most recent debate.

First, an acceleration of global warming makes it unlikely that we will be able to cap warming at +1.5C or perhaps even +2.0C. Some scientists believe this could cause people to give up on finding possible solutions if we already surpassed this level. It’s one of the risks that the climate community took when targeting specific temperature level like +1.5C in all these reports put out over the years.

Second, faster warming could cause some to doubt the climate models in general which make some scientists uneasy since they have come to rely so heavily on them.

But even if the answer lies somewhere in the middle between Hansen and others, any acceleration of the warming rate is problematic in a world where we are still so reliant on fossil fuels to drive out current civilization. 

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris,

 1. If that's what the writer meant by "unprecedented", it was poorly worded imo.

 2. The paper says: “The clustering of multiyear La Niña events is phenomenal given that only ten such events have occurred since 1920,”

 If the pre-satellite/modern era buoy isn't that reliable, why are they analyzing all of the way back to 1920?

 

I didn’t say that pre-1950 ENSO data wasn’t reliable. Just that we have more complete  monitoring since then. There was more missing data the further back closer to 1900 and the late 1800s. So estimates and reconstructions were employed.

I am not sure why you make such a point about the term unprecedented since it was the first such event since 1950 when we have more complete data.

Plus it seems a bit peculiar to make point about the way a word is used rather than the actual substance of the study.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 This source using the word "unprecedented" for a triple year event seems overly dramatic to me as these four were triples:

- 2020-1 through 2022-3

- 1998-9 through 2000-1

- 1973-4 through 1975-6

- 1908-9 through 1910-1

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

It was unprecedented since it’s the first satellite and modern bouy era 3 year La Nina to follow an ENSO neutral to borderline weak El Niño peaking at only +0.5 in 19-20. You will notice that the ones in the late 90s and early to mid 70s followed much stronger El Niños. The reliability of the 1908 to 1910 event isn’t as strong as the modern era since we didn’t have all the observation tools we have today.

https://research.noaa.gov/2023/11/07/recent-triple-dip-la-nina-upends-current-understanding-of-enso/#:~:text=“There were parts of the,leading to food security issues 

What caused the 2020–2023 triple-dip La Niña?

Triple-dip La Niñas are not new, with particularly strong ones occurring in 1973–1976 and 1998–2001. However, these two previous events developed in the wake of especially strong El Niños, which were thought to be precursors for triple-dip La Niñas. The leading theory was that strong El Niños cause a significant loss of heat from the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the atmosphere and to higher latitudes, leaving a large ocean heat deficit that can take years to recover. However, the 2020–2023 La Niña was unique in that it did not follow a strong El Niño, causing researchers to reevaluate current understanding of how these extended La Niñas develop.

It will be interesting to see the long term increase of the WPAC warm pool leads to this becoming another multiyear La Niña event.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/soestwp/announce/news/long-lasting-la-nina-more-common/#:~:text=Multiyear La Niña events have,an unprecedented triple-year event.

Multiyear La Niña events have become more common over the last 100 years, according to a new study led by University of Hawai‘i (UH) at Mānoa atmospheric scientist Bin Wang. Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted more than one year, including an unprecedented triple-year event. The study was published this week in Nature Climate Change.

“The clustering of multiyear La Niña events is phenomenal given that only ten such events have occurred since 1920,” said Bin Wang, emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology.

El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, affect weather and ocean conditions, which can, in turn, influence the marine environment and fishing industry in Hawai‘i and throughout the Pacific Ocean. Long-lasting La Niñas could cause persistent climate extremes and devastating weather events, affecting community resilience, tourist industry and agriculture. 

Determining why so many multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common has sparked worldwide discussion among climate scientists, yet answers remain elusive.

Looking to past events for clues

Wang and co-authors examined 20 La Niña events from 1920-2022 to investigate the fundamental reasons behind the historic change of the multiyear La Niña. Some long-lasting La Niñas occurred after a super El Niño, which the researchers expected due to the massive discharge of heat from the upper-ocean following an El Niño. However, three recent multiyear La Niña episodes (2007–08, 2010–11, and 2020–22) did not follow this pattern. 

They discovered these events are fueled by warming in the western Pacific Ocean and steep gradients in sea surface temperature from the western to central Pacific.

“Warming in the western Pacific triggers the rapid onset and persistence of these events,” said Wang. “Additionally, our study revealed that multiyear La Niña are distinguished from single-year La Niña by a conspicuous onset rate, which foretells its accumulative intensity and climate impacts.”

Results from complex computer simulations of climate support the observed link between multiyear La Niña events and western Pacific warming.

Preparing for the future

The new findings shed light on the factors conducive to escalating extreme La Niña in a future warming world. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse impacts on communities around the globe, if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

“Our perception moves beyond the current notion that links extreme El Niño and La Niña to the eastern Pacific warming and attributes the increasing extreme El Niño and La Niña to different sources,” Wang added. “The knowledge gained from our study offers emergent constraints to reduce the uncertainties in projecting future changes of extreme La Niña, which may help us better prepare for what lies ahead.”

Maybe Hansen and Simons will turn out to be correct about marine aerosol reductions having a greater influence on climate than earlier models had shown.

Even with all the clouds and rain so far this month, NYC was still able to go +1.5 for April 1st through 10th. 

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Sounds like a 1950s type summer

 

The Euro has a MJO 2,+IOD ,La Niña, record Atlantic SST summer with a ridge over the Rockies and Northeast undercut by a trough to our SW. So above average temperatures, dewpoints, and rainfall. The MJO 2 is also very active for tropical storms and hurricanes. 
 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Saw that. My question is does that rare +IOD/Nina combo continue through fall? My guess is no

The current forecasts have it more neutral by fall.

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just a very, very early preliminary look (which means nothing at this point), would seemingly support a La Niña, orientation and strength to be determined, +QBO, -PDO, maybe neutral to negative IOD come fall?, +AMO, high solar/high geomag. Snow cover and ice cover to be determined in the fall

The updated information incorporating a possible +IOD and La Niña with record Atlantic SSTs shows how active the hurricane season can be if all the pieces come together.

45 minutes ago, TriPol said:

How much rain are we supposed to get yet again??

Widespread 0.5 to 1.5 with localized higher amounts. 
 

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Do you think we keep the very unusual +IOD/La Niña through the fall or do you think it goes at least neutral? Although it’s possible, my guess is that we go at least neutral IOD by fall and possibly -IOD during the fall

Good question since we usually don’t see record SSTs in the NW Indian Ocean and a +IOD during developing La Ninas. 
 

24 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Good agreement with GEFS and EPS for that period before ridge goes away after the 20th. Hope the signal stays as we get closer to the period. 

Yeah, it’s a nice improvement on next weeks forecast from a week ago.

New run

Old run

40 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yep we could salvage most of the next 3 days. Today looks like an overperformer on Temps 

Looks mostly like a spring elevated convective event now focused during Thursday night. Good MUCAPE and near record PWATS will probably result in some locally heavy downpours. So more of a spring-like feel than our other recent storms which were big washouts.

Yeah, looks like our first possible extended warm up next week as the blocking pattern which began around 3-20 begins to fade.
 

Some amazing views from around BTV.

March was the 10th consecutive record breaking month for global temperatures. The SSTs also continue to set daily records. We’re are a few weeks now past the typical spring peak on 3-22.

First time since 1992 that NYC had its first 80° of the year before Newark.

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

got to 80 in the park i feel a little faint not use to the heat...

It’s pretty rare for NYC to have their first 80° day before Newark. But the lack of leaves on the trees to block the ASOS coupled with the bay breeze at Newark allowed them to do it. It’s also rare this time of year for NYC to beat Newark by 3°. 

18 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Zero signs that the Japanese marine heat wave is ending. Looks like a carbon copy of 2022-23

Yeah, looks like it’s a function of the rapidly warming subtropical oceans. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w

In this study, we evaluate the ocean warming pattern derived from four decades of satellite measurements. We find widespread strong subtropical ocean warming, concentrating mostly on the western ocean basins. In contrast to these observations, studies of paleoclimate suggest that the greatest ocean warming occurs at higher latitudes. By pairing the observed warming pattern with SST evolution in long-term climate simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is constrained by ocean dynamics of surface convergence (downwelling, subtropical gyres) and divergence (upwelling, subpolar gyres) rather than being dominated by internal variabilities, such as the PDO. 
 

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

High around 80 today 

Yeah, upper 70s to around 80° just west of the backdoor. 
 

One of the stronger west based blocking patterns that we have seen in early April. Interesting how the spring has been one of our better blocking seasons of the year recently. This has allowed the cooler maxes to dominate with the mild minimums.