bluewave

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened to our warm April lol

If you want to see a warmer forecast actually verify cooler than forecast these days just amp up the moisture, clouds, and onshore flow. That was the only reason that the heat was muted so much last summer. We generally need very moist patterns these days in order to avoid record heat. 

EPS April 8-15

New run

Old run

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s NAO is -2.00, which is the most negative of any day Feb 15th through April 7th for the years 1950-present. The old record for that period was -1.84. Also, there have been record daily -NAOs the last five days:
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.gefs.z500.120days.csv

 

Highly amplified pattern with 3 separate 500 mb heights records. In addition to the 500 mb height record  with the -NAO, record 500mb heights and surface high pressure were recorded west of Hawaii. Then the record low pressure for this time of year at 500 mb around Chicago. So it’s no wonder the pattern has been so wet. Looks like we reload again in about a week as the northern and southern streams attempt to phase. 

Several stations are in 1st place for wettest meteorological spring through April 3rd by a wide margin. 
 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

A very dangerous picture is getting painted for this upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. All the indicators right now are pointing to a record breaking season and have been since March….

Based on what I am seeing right now, we at least have a shot at one month from June through October with very excessive rainfall over 10.00”. That would be a scenario with hurricanes or tropical storms making landfall to our south and then tracking north. If we can string together more than one month of excessive rainfall, then  the flood threat would be even higher. The worst scenario would be a direct hit which would add the damaging wind and coastal impacts. So we’ll have to monitor the coming season actual storm tracks very closely. It’s even potentially more problematic based on all  the record rainfall since last summer. 

The statistical predictors based on record SSTs and La Niña are very impressive for the coming hurricane season. 
 

3 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Not surprised, two weeks ago I posted a sustained warm pattern would wait until mid April. Hope that doesn’t get pushed off further, as this isn’t great spring weather currently. 

We have had a generally warmer minimum temperature pattern over the last two weeks. But all the clouds, onshore flow, and rain have been keeping the maximums down. 
 

Looks like we are on track for the latest first 80° day of the year following a 40° winter. Models continue the theme of onshore flow, clouds, and chances for rain from time to time through at least April 15th. We will have to be happy with the warmer days into the 60s and hopefully some 70s. 
 

17 minutes ago, lee59 said:

There is little doubt that we are getting milder. However, I don't believe we are not going to see good winters still, some seem to be implying that. The above records really show we were due for a snow drought of sorts.

My guess is that the 2010s will stand as our snowiest decade in modern times. While the warmer winters have lead to a decline in snowfall during the 2020s ,there will still be good years in the mix. But since we have probably began a declining pattern, there will be the chance for more below average than above average seasons over time. 

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Boston will be pushing 3 years on its last snowfall of 4 inches or more next winter 

3 top 10 lowest snowfall seasons during the 2020s so far. Their new average for the 2020s so far is only 26.1 which is similar to what NYC averaged during earlier decades. So about 50% of what they averaged during the 2010s. Boston had 100” in only 39 days back in 2015. That 39 day total is higher than their total snowfall since January 2021 to March 2024.

Looks like one of the deepest 500 mb lows on record around Chicago for the month of April. 
 

Coastal Westchester into Fairfield already gusting past 50 mph.

Larchmont Harb   N/A    N/A N/A N/A NE41G53 

Norwalk Harbor   N/A    N/A N/A N/A NE39G52  

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

These winds are already happening.  I recently recorded a gust to 42 mph at my station at Cherry Grove.  A nearby station has recently recorded a gust to 50 mph.  I have no doubt that there will be gusts over 60 mph along the barrier beaches and would not rule out gusts to near hurricane force with this event.

Jones Beach already gusting close to 50 mph ahead of the strongest winds expected later today into the evening.

  
Jones Beach E37G48     

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As expected….massive fail incoming for the CMC suite with the snow fantasies it kept insisting on, run after run 

The CMC has had one of the worst cold biases of any model this past winter. It’s also been very erratic at times. So better to just use the Euro and GFS suites longer range and then models like HRRR ,HREF, RGEM ..etc within 24-36 hrs. 

Areas near the shore could see gusts near 60 mph since there is a 50KT flag just beneath the inversion. 
 

Another example of how ridiculously amplified this pattern is. Record ridge NW of Hawaii…record trough to our west…and record blocking west of Greenland. 

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But if you go by the numbers we had hotter years (more 90 degree days) back in the 90s-- certainly more record number of 90 degree day summers.  I guess record warmth is more about the mins now, all the excessive rainfall is blunting record highs now.

All this excessive rainfall is worse than record heat, flooding kills more people than heat does, and also results in the spread of disease (via mosquitoes) and results in the buildup of toxic mold and higher rates of allergies.

The record rainfall last summer kept the 90° days in check. But we have seen many more top 10 years for 90° days since 2010 than we ever did in the past. The reason you feel like we are seeing less 90° days now is due to your location. The heatwaves since the 15-16 super El Niño have featured more onshore flow due to the higher pressures east of New England. So places like JFK get the sea breeze earlier in the day and miss the 90s while areas just to the west get the excessive number of 90° days. We are getting to the point where we need washouts during the summer and spring just in order to avoid record heat like we are currently seeing. 

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

are the models becoming worse now for the same reason they were bad all winter?

 

It’s just difficult for the models when we start getting such strong Greenland blocks and cutoff lows. While the -NAO will quickly rebound, the blocking will transfer to Hudson Bay. So the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge will transition to an omega blocking pattern. This makes specific forecasts beyond 120 hrs even lower skill than they typically are. So clouds, rain, and onshore flow will continue to be a factor going forward. I know many don’t like all the record warmth of recent years. But the only times we catch a break from all the warmth is when it gets very wet and cloudy with a persistent onshore flow. 

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

People from NY are panicking for some reason in the other eclipse thread..... are the chances of clouds in the totality region getting higher?  Specifically talking about Syracuse and the area just north of there.

 

wow Lee Goldberg talking about cloud cover moving in for next Monday too-- but he said it looks like high clouds for now.

The ridge looks like it will be much narrower now than earlier runs were showing so we’ll  probably have to wait until  the weekend for the specific cloud conditions for the eclipse.

New run

Old run

36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Don’t underestimate this extended fall with 10 days of winter’s ability to find new ways to keep us suffering. 

Yeah, the models now have this as one of the deepest cutoff lows on record for this time of year. So it’s no surprise the models have more clouds, rain, and onshore flow going forward than just a few days ago. The only way we have avoided record warmth in recent years has been these record wet patterns with plenty of onshore flow.
 

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

So what does this imply?

That the potential is there for winds to beat expectations. 

11 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Quite a strong inversion though...

It’s an unusual sounding for this area since we usually doesn’t see an inversion with such a strong easterly jet below the inversion level with this much MUCAPE. 

7 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Stormy day for Jersey especially south tomorrow on the nam.  

Yeah, very strong winds just above the deck along the Jersey Shore. Coastal sections could see an impressive wind event from the east as the models have a tighter gradient now. This is in top of the heavy rain potential.

While we already knew this, it’s good to see the figures. My guess this is related to the long range Euro inability to see the stronger MJO 4-7 influence. The lower skill shows the competing influences of these marine heatwaves made the stock El Niño forecast less likely compared to previous El Niños.

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Is there a big swing  just beyond this by the 11th with bg ridge and warmth / first 80s 11 - 14?

Depends on how much we can dry out after this week and reduce the onshore flow. The first 80° of the season will be later than average since 2010 due to all the clouds and record rainfall and onshore flow. But we should at least be able to make it back to around 70° by the 2nd week of April. 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Is that siting proper too? Does it say anywhere in the regulations that the equipment should be further away from the ocean or at least establish some kind of barrier to shelter it from the ocean?

Sea breezes are a local effect, so I look at that the same way I look at trees at Central Park blocking the sensor.

 

No since the major airports are right on the water.