bluewave

1 hour ago, TWCCraig said:

Something interesting I've noticed during the last solar eclipse in 2017 is how much the temperatures drop during the eclipse. I was in SC for that one, you were able to notice the temperature drop a couple degrees simply due to the lack of sun. I'm curious to see how the eclipse will effect high temps today, I can see temps peaking early. Most weather models do not take into account the loss of heating from a solar eclipse. 

Looks like the HRRR has it factored in. 
 

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very confident we see our 1st 80+ degree high temp in the metro area since October by the end of this month

It would be a rarity not to reach 80° by the end of April since we have done it every year since 2001.

Areas north and east of NYC have had close to 70”of precipitation since last July. 
 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Thursday night into Friday morning looks nasty, very heavy rain, high winds. What else is new? The beat goes on

Yeah, record moisture levels across the world now accompanying the big global temperature spike since last year. 

On 4/7/2024 at 8:06 AM, LibertyBell said:

I choose to focus on the positive, a nice dry stretch sets in after Friday

 

We had a very strong MJO 8 -NAO pattern flip around March 20th. These pattern changes usually last a minimum of 30 days. So we’ll have to see what the models come up with as we approach April 20th. If we still keep seeing these troughs reloading onto the East, then we’ll know the pattern change on March 20th will last even longer than a month. But if models become more optimistic next few weeks by  the 20th, then we’ll know it was only a 30 day event. 

13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Another 1-3 of rain next week…sigh 

Yeah, a few showers on Wednesday as the warm front comes north. Then the heavier rains with embedded convection from Thursday into Friday with more 50+ mph gusts. The low pulls away on Saturday with more strong NW winds gusting over 30 mph. 
 

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it's absolutely criminal that these places get to experience 100 degrees while we have not hit 100 since 2013-- the real drought is the lack of 100 degrees in the city and on Long Island.

 

If you like 100° days that much you have to move north or west of the sea breeze front. The stronger high east of New England has keep the South Shore cooler since the 15-16 super El Niño. 
 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But wasn't 2010 dry?

and you can still have well over 100 degrees in a wet pattern-- 2011 is proof of this

The epic deluge in August into September 2011 came after the record heat in June and July. 

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, the key is for it not to be wet for a couple of weeks around the time of peak heat.  I think we could have hit 100 last year if the rains waited for August like in 2011.

April and May and June were pretty dry from what I remember.

All it took was a dry July and August in 2022 for 4-6 days reaching 100° away from the sea breeze influence in NJ. NJ probably could have made it 10 days if they were able to get a real drought like back in 2002.
 

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We hit 108 on Long Island in 2011, one of our wettest years on record.

 

That 108° In Mineola was in 2010 which was drier before the epic deluge from August into September 2011. 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah when have we ever seen a +8 April?   

Newark came close to +5 with the warmest April on record last year.

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This wet pattern we’ve been in since the end of the last drought in 2002 can’t continue forever. Law of averages, eventually this cycle has to end, it’s astonishing that its even lasted 22 years

The much wetter pattern which began after 2002 has only seen occasional relaxations like around 2012. It got taken up a notch with the most recent very wet pattern which began back in July. With the potential for such an active hurricane season coming up, it doesn’t appear that we’ll be seeing a significantly drier extended pattern anytime soon. Some stations like LGA have seen their wettest July into April by over 10.00”. So I am guessing that it’s related to the record global temperature spike able to hold more water vapor. 

Tuesday looks like our next 70s day of the spring before we get backdoored on Wednesday. Then our next slow moving storm system with more heavy rains and high winds from Wednesday into Friday. That MJO 8 and -NAO combo last few weeks is really having a lasting influence. I guess if we keep finding ways to avoid the MJO 8 in the winter like recent years it will catch up with us in the spring.  

28 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

time to get back to weather what about next week rainstorm is it still on?

Yeah, the highly amplified pattern continues. Brief warm up into Tuesday followed by a backdoor on Wednesday. Then a rainy and windy cutter later in the week. 
 

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

animals always feel it sooner than we do, but in this case the dog was a little slow to react lol

I would not want to experience anything stronger than this. 
 

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes!  I found this video earlier and there was another one I saw from Long Island from Merrick from Nassau County like this.

The fracking quakes in Oklahoma were mag 5.6, 5.6 and 5.8 and caused property damage and quake insurance is through the roof there now. I would never want to experience a 6.0 or higher, it would probably cause a ton of property damage around here.

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

First time I ever felt a quake. It was a quick jolt with rumbling... bizarre experience for sure.

Probably since it was pretty shallow.

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm surprised you don't remember August 2011.  I enjoyed that one, this one felt  a lot stronger.

Can we find a connection between these and heavy rainfalls that happened just prior?  August 2011 was a very rainy month.  We've been in a very rainy pattern now too.

I remember reading scientific papers linking heavy rainfalls and earthquakes-- is it a possibility?

 

I didn’t feel that one back in Long Beach. This is the best video clip that I have seen so far from Bridgewater, NJ. It felt more like some kind of impact here near HVN like in the video. Very hard jolt from side to side and was over in a few seconds. This is more than enough for me and can’t even imagine what a magnitude 9 would feel like they had in Japan a while back. 
 

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Same. Pictures were coming off the wall. Absolutely nuts…everyone is outside currently 

Yeah, one very hard jolt from side to side here near KHVN. The shades were still swaying for around 5 seconds after it was over. 

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy. I thought a train was going by…. 
 

my house was shaking 

This is nuts. My whole place suddenly swayed from side to side with all the shades swinging from side to side. I am just east of KHVN. I never felt anything like this before. It was one very strong jolt which was over in a few seconds.

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ominous look for sure. Looks like more 100-500 year flood records are going to be broken. 

Doesn't help that we're already so wet. A dry period now would help.

Yeah, also looks like higher dewpoints again with more onshore flow with the continuation of high pressure to our north and northeast especially as the summer goes on. 
 

The Euro seasonal just updated and it has a very wet summer into fall near the East Coast with a very active hurricane season. 
 

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave 2010 was probably the hottest summer I experienced in my lifetime. The heat combined with the humidity made it feel like a tropical island. If we ever get that type heat again all time records would be established. 
 

76 on Tuesday? 

Yeah, 2010 was even rough back in my old hometown of Long Beach. Westerly flow kept the beaches much warmer than they typically are. The beaches were way too crowded with almost no parking spaces in the neighborhoods. The summer of 2009 was so much more pleasant with much cooler temperatures and less crowds on the boardwalk and beaches. 
 

Looks like we have a shot at mid 70s Tuesday before we get backdoored again on Wednesday and the rains return again. 

11 hours ago, nycwinter said:

unlikely with the ocean nearby

Multiple stations hit 108° during a drier pattern in 2010 and 2011 which wasn’t nearly as dry as the spring of 2002 was. So we could easily beat that in this much warmer climate if we got into a summer drought with westerly winds. But since we have become so wet with more onshore flow, it hasn’t happened yet. All it took was a brief flash drought in October 2019 to set all time highs by several degrees for the month. Plus we had our first 80° during winter in 2018. So we have been lucky to an extent during the summer that the big highs have been elongated more east of New England instead of flatter into the Carolina’s or Tennessee Valley. When you look at what happened around the Pacific NW a few summers ago it shows how lucky we have been. 
 

Just add 2-3° to the 2010-2011 maxes and you see potentially what a drought could do here in the summer.

October 2019 and February 2018 records were 3-4°warmer than previous records

Seattle surpassed previous summer record by 5° in the much warmer 2020s.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

that was a wonderful summer

We would easily hit 110° if we ever got a repeat of a drought like the early 2000s in this much warmer climate. 

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened to our warm April lol

If you want to see a warmer forecast actually verify cooler than forecast these days just amp up the moisture, clouds, and onshore flow. That was the only reason that the heat was muted so much last summer. We generally need very moist patterns these days in order to avoid record heat. 

EPS April 8-15

New run

Old run