bluewave

The SPC HREF should be interesting next few days as this could be an unusually convective system near the secondary low. So rainfall totals and winds may exceed what the globals are showing. Plenty of MUCAPE showing up on hi res NAM. 

This is going to be one of the strongest closed lows that we have seen this time of year. 
 

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So it's almost in Nassau County!

Yeah, pretty much. You can see why they radiate better than other spots in NYC. Also why the sea breeze is such a big influence there during the summer. They would probably have more 90° days if the ASOS was on a further NW section of the airport near South Ozone Park or Howard Beach. It’s one of our biggest airports at nearly 5000 acres.

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, it can go both ways with snowfall (either more or less.)  I remember in December 2009 we had a snowstorm where Central Park got 10" of snow and JFK received 15"!

April 1996 was another one, Central Park and LGA both got less than an inch and JFK had 4.5" if I remember correctly.

 

The actual JFK ASOS is very close to Woodmere. 

 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Chris how is it that Howard Beach has close to a foot of rainfall but JFK didn't even hit 10" JFK undermeasures rainfall too?

 

The Howard beach site is quite a distance from the JFK ASOS. The ASOS in JFK is in the eastern portion of the airport next to the 5 towns area of Nassau. This is why JFK radiates better than other portions of NYC. So the JFK ASOS is more than 5 miles away from Howard Beach site since the airport is so big. This is also why the snowfall totals between the sites can be so great. 

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

100% agreed. Until we see pac improvements it will be a struggle for eastern snow enthusiasts. We have witnessed so many of these strong blocks the past few years produce nothing because of a awful pacific configuration 
 

In the old days a hostile Pacific didn’t didn’t feature the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. This is more a feature of the 2020s -NAO patterns. My guess is that this is related to the record Atlantic SSTs. 

Numerous stations with 10.00+ of precipitation this month.

We can add March 2024 to the list with numerous stations recording over 10.00.

0z guidance coming in stronger with the primary now which is cutting to Chicago instead of Buffalo with the stronger Southeast ridge forcing the phasing further west. So this could set a new record for one of our longest and slowest spring cutoffs. Models still have showers and clouds into Saturday with the cutoff low. 

New run stronger Southeast ridge linking up with -NAO forcing phase and primary low  further west

Old run weaker Southeast ridge

Even older run with a more suppressed Southeast ridge

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I was just going to ask you this, why are these primary storms with lows going to Buffalo becoming more common now?

What happened to our Miller A's the real coastal snowstorms?

I hate Miller B's..... even in winter we usually get the backside from them.

 

The Southeast ridge has become a big player since the 15-16 super El Niño. 

New run

Old run

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

A storm with a primary that tracks to Buffalo or Lake Huron will never be good for anything here other than heavy rain and a dry slot. 

Yeah, these -NAO patterns have been changing in recent years. They have tended to link up with the Southeast ridge more. My guess is that it’s related to the record Atlantic SSTs and possibly other marine heatwaves across the planet. We have seen how models have been underestimating this factor longer range. So storm systems start out days 6-10 more suppressed and colder only to correct more north or northwest and warmer under 5 days. I know people follow the model headline scores for the Northern Hemisphere. But this issue near the East Coast isn’t something that shows up in these model forecast statistics. So we have to take this model bias into account when looking at longer range forecasts.

Models feeling the stronger Southeast ridge now so the 0z guidance came further north. Same northward correction we have been seeing all winter. The good news now is that it’s April and most  people would want a warmer solution. So a continuation of the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. Also a trend to deeper primary so the secondary isn’t nearly as strong as in earlier runs. Still a good soaker for the area but with a less intense low pressure.

New run

Old run

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m worried about a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season coming up…record warm MDR already, ++AMO, rapidly developing (possibly strong) La Niña…bad, bad combination. I also think we see a very hot summer with a likely roided up SE ridge and given the extreme soil moisture we have in place, it’s probably going to be humid as hell too

Yeah, the Euro tropical forecast from March 5th was already the strongest for so early in the season. So the update coming on April 5th should be interesting. All-time Atlantic SST warmth for so early on the season coupled with a strong La Niña signal. 
 

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that low of 12 in 1923 is pretty amazing!  how come it's not on the lowest max list-- did it get that warm that day that it wasn't among the coldest April highs?

 

It got to 36° for a high.

Just now, MJO812 said:

So that means we will never see brutally cold air again ?

Our climate has warmed way too much to ever see April cold like that again.

30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

no similarities ? is a 100 year Arctic outbreak needed this time around ?

 

Our climate is much too warm now to ever see Arctic cold like that again in April. 

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

how does this setup compare to April 6, 1982 ? - similarities and or differences ......

Not close since that had a 100 year Arctic outbreak in April which was the last time NYC set 3 consecutive low temperatures. It was also the last time NYC had afternoon temperatures in April in the 20s. That was the tail end of the mini ice age we had in the late 70s before our temperatures really began to take off.

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the question is if the block is so strong, why dont we see snow all the way down here?

whats the difference between this and say, April 1996, 2003, 2018....

other than the obvious fact that the winters preceding them were much colder lol

The block is so strong since we recently saw the big PV disruption. Then we got the tropics on board with the MJO 8-1 followed by the wave break. The reason the mountains are favored this time around is that it’s so much warmer than 1996,2003, and 2018. Plus the seasonal storm tracks those years were much more favorable for us. 

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I  don’t think this block orientation would have worked in January. It looks to far south to me which links the ridge off The Atlantic. It also should be noted the pac is still a mess. While it’s enough to give us a awful start to April, I feel it would have been more of the same in January 
 

@bluewave thoughts? 

Yeah, I think we still would have had P-Type issues near the coast even in January since the Southeast ridge is forecast to be very strong a day before the storm next week. This allows the primary to ride pretty far north before the coastal eventually takes over. So a continuation of these -NAOs and -AOs linking up with the WAR or Southeast ridge.

12 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not much still open unfortunately. Killington always goes super late though and would benefit 

I started the general April thread to discuss that storm potential for the first week of April.

Unusually amplified start to April with one of the strongest west based blocks that we have seen in early April. Models indicating the potential for a +4 to +5 SD  500 mb block near Greenland. This is followed by a deep upper low and storm system crossing the Northeast approaching -4 SD. So more heavy rains and strong winds possible for our area with a late season higher elevation snow threat for portions of the Northeast. 
 

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Better next week than on the day of the eclipse.

I've been thinking for awhile now if next week is very rainy, it will increase the odds of better weather for the eclipse.

 

Hopefully, the EPS high pressure forecast works out for the 8th.

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Next week looks horrible with a system stuck underneath the block 

Could be another nice event for the ski resorts.

57 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Huge batch of rain sw of phl will be moving in late this afternoon 

Some thunderstorms earlier in that batch.

47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

In the end go west you'll rarely be wrong

Not surprising given the continuing record WAR and SE Ridge patterns since the 15-16 super El Niño.

Near to record 500mb heights for Canadian Maritimes